Friday, October 29, 2010
Even with this kind of slow market, my system worked quite good. 10-20 ticks on average. There're also some nice swing for >30ticks but took more than 4 hours to develop.
Here's some of my thought about my system:
1. I Trade breakout, faked out means higher probabilities success at next breakout. It means to receive higher winning ratio, I can trade only after the first signal. If the first signal work already, then it's not my fortune.
2. Profit taking also play a good role. Profit taking earlier have better probabilities than late profit taking. Work best on choppy day, also work on trending day. No need to explain here.
3. Adjusting the Stop Loss. If I was afraid with big losses, I just waiting for a better price with still old Stop Losses intact. If I don't get filled, then it's not my fortune.
4. Watch another pair. I set 3 currencies: 6E,6B, and 6A. If one another give opposite entry, I'll wait till better confirmation. Best thing happened when three of them breakout at same direction, almost same time. The key is, not enter at the opposite direction on each currencies.
5. Backtested as far as I can go. Focus on maximum drawdown at the system. If the maximum still within reach, then I am still good to go. So far the max drawdown is -32 ticks. That's almost $400, and it's on the standard system. With the four rules, the drawdown can be minimized. With 10 ticks PT, there's still no drawdown. That's right. No negative day as far as I go, all of the three currencies.
Combine four of the rules give me incredible high winning ratio. I must say more than 80% with 1:1 Risk Reward Ratio. It's not best things for optimizing my profit, but definitely good thing for recovering my mental state.
Tips from me is working hard finding your system. The system should be adjustable from high winning ratio to risk reward ratio. I can't see both of them collide. If any of you know how to do it, let me know :) I believe to achieve better winning ratio means you must accept missing some good opportunities.
I have a dream someday, if I just don't feel to trade, I just took my high winning system then get out quickly with small profit, around $100 or so. Feeling good to have a Ca$h Machine right?
My mission is to complete backtesting all the three currencies starting from June 10 until now. I can't go further since I don't have the resource. But I think with 5 months backtested, combined with above 4 conservative rules, I'll be good to go.
This project is just temporary. Once I recovered, I'll take the next step and become a better trader, even better from my old proftable me.
Every suggestions are gladly welcome, even the cold harsh one and let me know if you enjoyed reading this posts.
Have a nice weekend :)
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Sorry for the bad picture.
I was on recovery mode. I know I should not be too focus in my past failure. But I'm still human. I have emotions to take care of. Massive Losses made me stall and tilt.
Trigger Shy, PT early, and Overtrade come and go.
All I do right now is to make me feel better. I feel better if I can booked consequtive winning days. I like the green day. That's also one of my pitfall to overtrade.
Back in the days where I collect around $200 - $300 per day profit. I was taking profit too early. Not to mention some overtrade sometimes, but I'm just lucky. And that month I could make significant profit and things got better after that. Then I was overtrade again, discretion trade, against the trade, things went back to zero again. Even minus. I have to stop this demon vicious cycle and move on to higher ground.
Anyway, I using the high winning ratio aka Profit Taking Early right now. I don't care if the profit is only a fraction. I need this for recovery. I backtested this system and fine-tuned it all day long. 10 ticks is reasonable for high winning ratio trade.
Like above trades, 3 of them gave at least 10ticks to reap. I missed the GBP and cut the EUR too early. But no complained since price came back again.
The only thing I believe in this proffesion is to survive long enough until I become a real trader. Trading become the subconscious mind, and become a boring routine. That's right, boring routine, a waiting and executing game. The only 2 important job for day-trader in my opinion:
1. Off Hour: Backtesting, review, and looking for new idea in the system.
2. On Hour: Execute the plan patiently and disciplinely.
Every advice and suggestion are welcome :)
Have a nice weekend everyone.
Should be a great day to trade today, especially TF. But too busy backtesting currency with incredible result. But backtesting 2 months is not enough. Three Currencies backtested need a lot of hard work.
My system would be Bollinger Band Contraction Inside Keltner Channel, so far so good. Max drawdown = 36 ticks per currency.
Focus on the losses since profit will take care of themselves.
PS : I even not yet backtested the GBP, expect more incredible result :)
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
But from today, you will see the new me. No more attached to the past.
- As the beginning, I will change the blog layout, trade with more relaxed and planned.
- No more Crude Oil as I lost my edge with this instrument.
- Backtesting the Currency Futures, find great edge.
- Become a better person :)
Thanks Scott for the advice, hope u'll still around when I was back at old me.
trade chopped out. The mistake: Not entering after the closing candle. So much price just taking at the tails. Wtf!!
My swing from AUD can't preserve the losses. I was afraid if I trade Crude Oil later may add the jeopardy on my losses.
The Bollinger+Keltner really a good setup. I just wrong applying it. Faked out zillions of time. Time to quit, there's another day :(
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Nett : $211
It's good to become profitable again :)
Today's I trade with less mistakes.
Start with Mini EUR, got a scalp profit. Then trading 6B exactly at big news, I've got cut loss slippage more than 10 Ticks!!!! Fortunately my flipping saved me from the losses. $9 loss from GBP.
Entering 6A but not convinced by the moved, got out at just 2 ticks profit.
The Oil, somehow I trade disciplinedly. If you can see the chart, oil had been doing like Friday again. Chopped-chopped. My mistake was I didn't raised the SL to Breakeven, but I didn't have reason for doing that since price moved less than 20cents.
Afraid if Friday's disaster happened again, I wanted to give up at -$200 total losses. Another big slippage from QM happened again. So frustrated trading this tickers. Double filled CL and QM made me nervous. Lucky the price flew a bit and decide to decrease the loss by bailing out the CL.
Sentiment news came out, price moved quite erratic. But my SL still untouched and finally price moved as my favour. I was targeting the 100cents intraday trading at $82.80 price target. A little shaked up and down, my price got filled!!!
I was very happy, esepcially the price came down again after that. But whatever happened,
Here's some Bollinger Contraction Bonus.
It happened over and over again like broken tape. Too bad I didn't enter the 6B. But the rest was okay if you only target 10-20ticks.
If you have time @ 01.00 - 05.00 EST, you may find this Bollinger may become ur Ca$h machine. The trick is entering when 3 major currencies with high correlation (EUR,GBP,AUD,CHF) do the contraction at the same time. Enter the same direction after breakout, cut the losing pair and let the winner run may cover monthly bill :)
Just a little tips, trade at your own risk...
Monday, October 25, 2010
Friday, October 22, 2010
I am too deep into this trading-job. I have been in this business for 3 years. When I thought I was figuring all out (cut-loss early and disciplined entry) I still have weakness in me.
Thanks for the idea, looking forward to backtest it.
If only there's job for 1 month in my country, lol. If there's, I'll gladly take it. If I can develop the instinct where I should enter or not, that would be great. As a scalper. how many pips does ur average SL? Thanks for ur compliment :) Make my day a bit.
Definitely right about it. I took the role model from Austin. Cut loss early, let profit run. I have dramatic change after that. But somehow I went back to zero again. It's not my setup is bad. It's completely my fault. I was addicted to small losses and when it become big, I can't stop trading. I was already pay more than I can imagine :)
Yes, I always trade 1 contract. The smallest size I can get.
Quit and rest, I'll do it this weekend.
Thanks for all of your advice, wish you guys all the best. The downfall today and previous bad days were like this:
1. Not consistent on Stop for the day, I mean I could stop trading on Wednesday when things went bad. I just felt like it. Of course when I saw those last final signal I didn't take, it could take me to the breakeven or decent profit. Sigh...
2. Thursday came, I stopped out multiple times as always, until I ride the slow but direct movement. I got out on more than 50 cents and price fall another 150cent. Sigh... Two Not Too Good Days
3. Friday, I sat with a vengeance. I wanted to take score NOW. So I trade more aggresively looking for nice profit. Like heaven knows, CL price kept getting wide whipsaw and choppy. When the price were already move up in fashion, I still busy shorting the market. Sigh... I should let it go.
I thought crude oil is easy. As long as it moved more than 100cent intra day, I'll definitely make money. It moved 100cent, but I still lose money. A Big money.
Here's what I should do from this day forward:
1. FOCUSING ON CURRENCY. I BACKTESTED IT OVER THE WEEKEND LIKE CRAZY AND DIDN'T EVEN USE THE EDGE SERIOUSLY. I have this good edge currency trade, less stop loss, and so on.
2. LIMIT MY OIL TRADE, definitely only use the QM with 15 cent stop for a while. 3 Stopped out and done for the day.
I am so desperate right now and thinking to end my career in trading. This is probably the deepest pit I have ever entered. :(
I thought if I kept trading and trading, taking every signal, at least I'll have a green-day. But it's so wrong. My red day far surpassed my green-day. My loss was mounted. I was afraid to keep losing and losing.
Some of my downfall are:
- I am not fully disciplined on exiting the backtested strategy. Profit taking too early most of the time. Sometimes not taking profit but it's rare occasion.
- Can't stop trading if I was deeply in red. That's make me more red most of the time. Like today, I overtrade :(
- Not disciplined = Disaster
- Disciplined = Sometimes also loss
- Disciplined and still loss = Tend to overtrade
Desperately need advice here, almost broken down :(
I should retired on CL. Chopped out massively and didn't even know what happened. Meanwhile the currency did a good job this week. Lot of work to do.
I think the most downside on me is I cannot take the red day. I need to take the red-day, like just little loss-day. If somebody have advice please let me know :)
I trade long on AUD and stopped out, flip to short. Price moved around 10pips, decided to raise my SL, eaten at the exact tick before it went down another 30ticks!! :(
Saw the nice Bollinger Squeeze on EUR but didn't enter since there'll be big news ahead. Choose to short GBP instead, chopped a bit, and decided to exit at nice 23ticks though it kept going down like crazy!
I was not fully exploiting this volatile market, still lot of things to fix :(
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Never Give Up, Stay On Track.
Currency gave a solid profit from GBP. I entered based on Bollinger contraction and Wedge Pattern. Exit 30 ticks too early, but still for me 30 ticks is quite big.
Meanwhile, I stood by on Crude Oil. Entered cautiously with QM, stopped out as expected, quite a while I entered the CL since I was stopped out strangely by QM.
This is one of tiresome fighting. I short, stopped out, raise/lower the Stop Loss, eaten. The most annoying thing when my 81.90 long eaten by merely 3 ticks before flying up again. Then I long 1 CL not based on system, another 1 based on CL at the price near the peak. Of Course I exit partially, then scaling up again on discretion trade, exit partially again.
I was offered to breakeven (Crude Trade) in a glimpse, didn't take it and another break even. Result -$20 after gaining $140 on Currency.
Already wanted to give up, I saw a crisp short pattern forming, What the Hell, entered on QM again. Stopped out again, re-enter QM at the same price again. Price broke down very slowly, stall on 82.00 - 82.15. Down again to 81.68, it retraced back threatened my 10cent profit SL within only 2 tick before it came down. Cover @ 81.60 and the Oil went down to 80-ish :(
Nett : +$196
Another great price on oil, another mediocre result in me.Whyyyyy????
Range Bar = 5 for AUD & 8 for GBP and EUR
CCI indicator = 14
Bollinger Band = 15
Keltner Channel = 15
CCI indicator used for filtering the breakout. Not worked every time but enhance winning ratio a little bit. CCI usage : 100 to -100.
Using Range Bar to fixate the Stop Loss and also frequent the Band Contraction.
Now using the range bar if used correctly may avoid the long consolidation. Let's say if price move around 15pips in 3 hours, the time chart surely gave you bollinger band contraction and also lot of faked. But with range bar, this 15 pips movement may give you less candles and slim change to create bollinger contraction.
I found out using this technique 10pips are flying all over the place. You could easily booked 50 pips in 6 hours if you have fast hand and brain!!
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
I thought I was recovered. I was wrong. I am afraid this losses follow through the next day.
My 6A trade were based on system. But I just got lucky, covered too early near the bottom.
Then I just trade micro, EUR and AUD, based purely on discretion trade. It's eat my previous profit, know how many pips I lost with micro? More than 100pips combined!!!
Then disaster came from Crude Oil. I was looking for after inventory setup. None, then there's signal. I set my QM, stopped out multiple times, upgrade to CL and another stopped out. It's just too choppy. Time went by, approach the lunch break. I was not specialized trading on mid-day, so I quit for the day. Big losses as I recall, but that's it. I could go on but there's no confidence left watching the CL just chopped around eating all Stop Losses.
My mistakes for today:
1. Playing recklessly with micro account. Like gambling with small changes, mounted into decent losses.
2. Not waiting the longer setup on CL. This time the minute chart. If only I followed the rules, I may just get -$75,-$25, and a par. The reason I break rules is because I didn't want to miss opportunity. But there's no opportunity. When days like this come, the only thing I should do is survive.
3. I am not sure if I could trade pre-inventory report since last 2 weeks CL gave very good money in it.
If only I trade like usual on morning, I should have a good swing, at least 50cents profit :( Those damn inventory report kept me away from CL darling before the report came.
And I still survive....
Fight for another day...
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
My other former trading buddy also like to enter at perfect price and hold into it until he burned out. If he missed the trade, he convinced himself that actually he want to take it there but it's too late. Emotional pittfall and delusional trade.
Mine have problem with not letting the day-loss (not loss per trade)until it's too deep to comeback for the day. Sometimes risking far too many than the expected outcome. Profit taking too early also one of my pitfall.
We all have our own demon to conquer.
Monday, October 18, 2010
I can't believe what I was doing. Whipsawed by QM and CL, persistent to enter, already loss -$1100, and managed to breakeven with accumulated three contract. I didn't have guts as I was crushed early by CL. Almost give up on Loss $1000 but can't.
Bad trade on currency also. My system worked flawlessly on AUD and GBP. And I just took 10pips instead of 100pips offered.
I can't believe what CL did to me..again, early whipsawed was very rare happened. I thought there's gonna be OPEC meeting or something.
But I found out something interesting out of this mess. I previously used Tick Chart instead of Time Chart for CL. And today, I used solely on Time Chart. Interesting is TIme Chart gave 2 S/R and Tick Chart only 1. And which one worked better? The Tick Chart!!!
I think that which one gave less signal is more reliable. Next day I would took the lesser signal whether it's Tick or Time :)
Oh, about those Ground Zero title, I will tell it when the time come.
Friday, October 15, 2010
For the past weeks, I made a discretion trade. I thought if I placed a tight Stop Loss, I'll be fine. I was wrong. At the beginning, I made a decent profit from this method, Stopped out, re-enter, and make profit. Until I was overconfidence and against the trend violently. I thought I placed Stop Loss and I'll be all right. No it's not. I was stopped out dozens of time until I can't afford to lose anymore. I was tilt, my trading performance dropped to the lowest level in my life. Scared, Deppresed, and frustated.
Until I realized one thing, Consistency. I rewind my memory backwards when I had losses because of the system, it's not even a quarter of my biggest losses in one day. I do remember when I was taking the trade solely based on system, my profit taking was bad, and I still have quite good month. I thought I was advancing as a trader, but I was wrong again. I am just an over-confidence brat who just learn to trade.
It's so many temptations from trading, Each person have different evil.
1. Like to fight the trend, want to become a hot-shot hero to pick the top/bottom of the market.
2. Hate to cut losses, averaging down until one day dried up capital.
3. Taking profit too early, thought that profit taking won't make us broke.
4. Hold profit position too long until it went back and become a loss.
5. Too tension of losing money and cut losses too early.
6. Don't even know what's make him/her fail on trade.
7. Worst, blame market for the losses.
1. Tempted to enter the trade without signal, then re-entry infinite time not realizing against the trend.
2. Sometimes Stop Loss too tight.
3. Hate to have a losing day. Attempt to winning back the losing trade and sometimes end up worse.
4. Need a long time to recover from big losses.
1. Already familiar getting stopped out. Disciplined on Cut Losses early.
2. Strong at new ideas and backtesting the system.
3. Have a decent patience for waiting to setup to appear.
4. Can hold my horse of stopped trading after winning.
5. Can modify lot of system, change it from high winning ratio or better risk-reward ratio.
- Not entering every trade, looking for some fundamental aspect especially on Currency.
I'd like trading forex becaouse of diversification. Win on EUR, lose on GBP, par on AUD, if the result was green, I'm fine. I thought if I can entered all of the pair, I may have everyday's profit. I have a character to like profit every day even it's small. High winning ratio is my objective.
To accomplish that, contradictory I need to Stop Loss early, raising the Risk-Reward Ratio. I need to get back to July's performance. There're very nice performance of winnig streak days. Start to backtesting the Currency again, this time with 3 currencies :)
Thursday, October 14, 2010
Riding 40 pips of GBP with only taking 4 pips :(
Thanks for Austin and his free-money from Oil after inventory report. Quite surprised with the active trending pre-inventory report, but 50 cent ticks was a must do :)
Gradually back to my previous-profit machine self, and prepare for tomorrow's fight.
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
Monday, October 11, 2010
Saturday, October 9, 2010
Friday, October 8, 2010
Never seen CL's been so Choppy Like This...10 Faked and still counting!!!!!! My God, lucky I was faked 4 times. Just avoid trade oil After Lunch.
If I entered all signal appeared, I will be dead in no time. $1000 loss!!! No counting if I added position!!!
This lesson costs around $300. No more Crude Light for a while
I was very disciplined. The problem was, I entered on chart after the news. Having great system is not enough. Need quick execution too.
I always had fixed SL with discretionary PT. That's become the failure. There're technique for Profit Taking and now I am honing my skill.
Thursday, October 7, 2010
In the past months I already research about Forex Trading. The result was fascinating. Easy and Unstressful. I can risk any amount I want. Even $1 per trade.
Here's why Forex is superior:
1. I can't stand risking more than 1% per trade. However, my system sometimes told me to risk more than that, even with one contract only.
2. Longer TF. With wider SL but less $ risk per trade, I can trade more objectively. Currently I was busy entering trade, lot of mistakes, since I had to watch the market exclusively cause I was worried for being stopped out. With forex I just scanning the candidate, enter, and let it flow without too much stressful watch.
3. More Currencies Pair, GBPJPW, EURJPY, that kind of things gave much opportunity. I can entry more relax and my money management will be very intact.
4. No or less manipulation from The Fed
Please give me advice about choosing the broker. My criteria will be no Stop Loss hunter, No Requote, and Easy to take Profit :)
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
I only trade wedge breakout, but from this single strategy, there're dozens of rules.
I planned like this:
What is the entry point:
- Wedge breakout, but the market was weak so I only trade if it failed once.
What happened if it's failed?
- I'll do the re-entry on the same pattern
What happened if it still failed?
- I'll wait for next setup or other currencies
Where is your Stop Loss?
- Maximum 10 pips or previous candle. If previous candle before breakout is more than 10 pips, then I will entry at better price
How much your losing streak?
- I'll stop after losing $500, hope not happened since it need more than 7 consequtive losses. If I was disciplined, the chance of busting $500 will be very rare since I trade 6 currencies at the same time. Some of them must move. If not, the market will ceased to vanish.
What is your profit target?
- Minimum 10 pips, depending market condition.
How is the review of your system?
- No single losing day if applied in last 10 days!!! That's how powerful my system is!! I was confidence with currency market since it's very dynamic. Don't really care about arbitrage.
What will you do if you still lose?
- I'll reviewed my trade diligently. Most of the time it's because disciplinary problem. I didn't see hole in my trading system.
How about CL and TF?
-I trade CL very careful and TF still miss a lot of trade. Not trade the TF before 10.00 am and for CL, have to be patient with unfilled order.
What is your confidence level now?
- Extremely high but in the right state. I have confidence in my system, not in my single trade. I have premium system, small stop loss, and great mental state. Just doing the plan, everything will be just fine :)
Small gain, very disciplined result. Never before I had this state of mind. My last trade from CL absolutely calm and confidence. Exit just 6 ticks from PT was very nice. The only thing I regret was I didn't scaling up which was an easy one.
Currency also have a small result. A little screwed up from JPY, but nothing fatal.
Next day: solid system + solid execution + solid mental preparation = GREAT TRADES :)
October won't be worse than September, I am ready now.
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
I was up $300 before the TF trade ruined everything. This time is worse. I was burnt to pieces. My mistakes was chopped out crazy by TF. That's when my evil me came out. I kept shorted and shorted until I lost big money!!!
I am an amateur today. I SWEAR I WON"T DO THIS MISTAKE AGAIN FOR THE REST OF MY LIFE!!!
I realized that I am not a big gun swinger. I was a small chunk-trader. I should happy with $300 up result.
Playing TF before news. I was angry with TF movement. It's like Fed Rate announcement Skipped very violently. After stopped out couple times. I was cooling myself and Long the signal, stopped out, sell another stopped out. This time I was angry. I shorted the TF all the way up and get burnt. Oh My GOD!!! What am I thinking? I was doing so nice until today!!!
Today will be a new day. Fix it, I will become a small chunk trader. I won't catch the losses I made. It's big. This month won't be a great month for me. But I will survive, like always.
From now on, I will become a small chunk trader for the rest of my life. I only added size if my capital doubled. I will do my old trade, no more discretion, no more evil in me.
Fiuh... that's better :)
Down $2400 this month, still survive. No more busted.
Monday, October 4, 2010
After I bragged about my 'profesional-wannabe' style at my previous post, I became the amateur myself. Long TF and averaging down, just exactly what I hate. I mean, 15pts TF intraday, even before lunch break is too much. Sadly, my cut loss habit still intact. So I just got out if the loss is very small. This type of habit may kill me next time. Sooner or later...
My Plan worked well on Currency, except operator error and missed entry. My biggest profit today came from TF. This buggers did slam and v-raised again like usual. But instead going in based on signal, I used discretionary entry with usual Stop Loss. Stopped Out twice (should be only one since I was greedy) and finally profit @ 1.5pts and 6.0pts. I was lucky today. Buy 2 contract near peak, sell all of them before v-raised. I'll tell you little story about V slam and raise. This type of pattern is not a pure price action. Common price action will be at least one movement to the last extreme, could be same, higher or lower. But it's close enough. While today's V-Slam absoultely not made by human's operator. It's Robot in Action, and it's hard fighting the robot.
Lesson learned :
Focus on Currency, very profitable.
Dump the TF until further sign of life.
For those of you who like averaging down (especially long) well congratulations :)
You may get profit every day. This type of market give amateur and beginners a very good result. Every sin at trading were legal for the past 2 months (US Futures only) the sin like: Profit Taking Early, Averaging Down, and No Stop Loss is served. While Cut Loss early, Let Profit Run, and adding position when right were punished.
But behold, for amateur and beginner, there'll be a time when every profit from this market will be wiped out in 1 day. Flash Crash on May 2010 surely will happened again, and I bet it's worse than before.
It's so hard not to become a bear in this type of market, while I was also very bearish on Dollar. The not very manipulated market right now is Currency and Commodity (except Market Index like ES,NQ,TF) Others are zombies waiting to be slaughtered.
Sunday, October 3, 2010
Now, here's the important thing I want to share. The primary focus is not how much I made from the historical, but how much I may stopped out. The method's like this.
1. Identified the entry point
2. Analyzing the best stop-loss placement
3. Adjust the entry based on my maximum Stop-Loss
Funny that my entry based on how much I can afford to lose per trade. I set my max SL is 10 ticks per trade. The longer I trade, the more sensitive I think about Stop Losses. I don't really care about the profit. As long as it's bigger than my losses I'll be fine.
I found out the best placement of stop loss is 1 tick above/below high/low candles before the breakout. Old trick right? But the old trick seemed very profitable.
Here's the currency from best to worst best on winning percentage:
4. GBP (almost tie with No.3)
5. JPY (why even bother?)
If I made position sizing like 2:1, I'll be rich in no time. But I don't have the guts and my capital won't allow me to do that. The ideal capital amount for position sizing is 10 contracts max. My max contract will be 3 :(
Friday, October 1, 2010
It's all my fault, my early entry were good before news come. I ride the down, up and slammed another bottom. I attempted to exit on $61.42, but the price kept going down. And worst thing I did, I loosed the Stop Loss. Down $1794 :(
No more spirit to trade, not the worst day of my life. But still pissed off.