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Outsmart Market Maker Part 2

 Step 1 : Identified Market Structure and Trend

Step 2 : Wait for Pullback

Step 3 : Identified on which candle Retail Trader entry

Step 4 : Wait Market Maker doing Break Even or Stop Loss Hunting

Step 5 : In this scenario MM only hunt the break even trader twice

    Notes* the first hunt is not valid because price just move 7 pips top. Not many traders move their stops     yet. Wait for the next hunt that is happened later.

Step 6 : Enter the market after the hunting session finish

Step 7 : ???

Step 8 : Profit

Market Maker only hunting the break even Trader is a good indication for strong trend. The secret is mark the most liquid area where price are likely to hit. Wait for the momentum then enter to reach the liquid zone. Patience and Absolute Letting Go is above everything in trading.

How to outsmart the Market Maker by thinking like them Part 1

Trading is actually simple. Just do the Basic like Trend Direction, Market Structure, and wait for Pullback. The problem is Market Maker like to screw this up. They know where good discipline retail traders enter the market and our stop losses. So I come up with this little tricks to outsmart market maker.

To do this trick first we have to learn where retail traders mostly will put their trades. According to chart above we know the first white candle or doji will become the entry. Next step is where they put stop losses because as a good discipline retail trader we must put tight stop loss for a good Reward Ratio. In this scenario we know the stop losses will be below white candle.

With this information we predict that Market Maker will stopped out most of retail traders out of their position. There are 2 kinds of Market Maker stopped out. The first one like they will stopped out retail traders Stop Losses. In stronger trending market they only can afford to stopped out the breakeven traders or +1 traders. 

In this example the Market Maker stopped out the Stop Loss zone of retail traders. The trick is wait for good white candle after the stopped out happened then enter the Buy. What happened next is we don't need to wait too long for our trades to reach the target.

I am not saying the Basic Trading Method is not working. It is working more often than not. There is chances no second pullback and price just straight fly to the moon. But if you learn how Retail Trader Psychology and how Market Maker will exploit it, your trading performance will be much better. Me personally like Momentum Trades where it move fast to hit my Target Profit. Too long exposed at the market may effect judgement and more risk to have bad decisions.  

    

 

How Market Maker Manipulate The Price Study Cases

I think the most profitable trading strategy is how to read Market Psychology of Market Maker. Here is my analysis after a big Up Grinder of Cable Price:

Retail Traders lucky enough buying before the big up move will always set TP and SL based on Price, The good area of Profit Taking is 1.2377 or 1.2400. So what happened is price not yet reach there but create a pullback.

First Pullback 1.2300, a good spot to raise SL around this Area. Few hours later, it got Hit and Stopped Out. Decent Profit, it is okay. But what happened, price bounce up again and Some Retailers will re enter to chase the market to the original Profit Target. And as we already suspect, Price slammed down below the low to stopped out the Re-entry Trader. At this time, most traders will give up and move on to another pairs or trades. And price Spike Up very hard that only few can catch the move. This is a manipulation to shake off piggy back trader from getting massive profits.

In my conclusion, it is difficult to make big profits in a long term. But to target 25 pips or 50 pips is very doable in day to day basis. For example above we know the area where market maker will target their prey. We know that after the first pullback, price will eventually re visit the area for Stop Hunting. What we do is waiting the pattern emerge then we enter the market, We won't get hundreds of pips, but it have high probabilities.In the long run it will become big pips accumulative.

Moving Averages Price Trapped

This is a strategy of Moving Average Swings and I think it correlated with how algos works. Let me explain how this works. This is 1 hour charts of GBPUSD. The red line is where the high and low of the EMA swings. EMA swings is when EMA do the reversal and create hill or valley. I draw a line at the top and bottom of swings (Not shown above).

The strategy is very simple. We wait until price is trapped with the Breakout EMA. Breakout EMA meaning the EMA line break the top or bottom of EMA swings, the easy word is breakout support or resistance, not price breakout, Moving Averages. 

As example above, price not yet it the higher EMA swings (top red line) when EMA line breakout the previous EMA swing. This means price is trapped between EMA breakout and EMA swings. Most of the time the opportunity is very short timed and not enough pips to profit. 

Above setups we have 2 hours and 30 pips max profit potential. 

Sometimes price already hit next EMA swings while EMA line haven't breakout yet. This means no setup. But if it happened, it is a very high probability to succeed.

These days it is very difficult to trade with conventional strategy. The algos of market maker have only one purpose. Take our money as retail traders. They will do anything to rigged the market and destroy us. If you follow the price only you will chopped to death, sudden spike, pullback, we enter at pullback, then price reversed. We then wait for pullback, another reversal. Consolidate, then fake breakout. I saw countless failed pullback and fast price movement all the time. 

With this strategy, we can filtered out chopped price and set target price. This is easier to analyze than crammed up candlesticks. It takes experience and I am nowhere near it. But gradually I can see the big picture of it. Price is to manipulate traders. But with EMA swings, we can analyze what the market maker want to do next.

HSI Analysis Jan 23

28. Price open below previous close, Range 204 in 5 minutes with big volume matched the 01.30 bar. Bar with big low tails close higher. Unusual behavior when market open indicates the bar is probably the most important bar of the day.

27. Inside bar as expected, nothing to do.

28. Double Inside Bar forming before 01.30 bar, be careful with false breakout.

29. Engulfing Bar 01.30, usual pattern. Can trade after a false upside then Short after bar 28 break.

30. Another inside bar, Stops will be at bar 29 high. Profits will be at low of the day.

31. Another opportunity to short after bar 30 breakup fake.

32. Stopped out, partial profit, or small losses in this bar. Big reversal bar.

33-35. Another inside bar then fake low break. The low also near the low of 29 which is important bar. Opportunity to buy at 33 high.

36. Partial profit at break high.

37-42. This is consolidation zone looks sideways but actually very important area. After break high no continuation, indicates weak buyer. This is where psychology kicked in. Bulls at first defend their entry point on  28053 area 3 times!! Bears is not yet entered but Bulls already troubled.

43. Bears enter the market and Bulls already dump the 28040 fortress move the defense at 27990 area.

44-48. Bull succeed defending the 27990 temporary and price move to 28030 area again. But there is no more buyers here. 3 times is too much. Opportunity to short at 28030 area.

49-end. Bear winning the war break low and yesterday low. Take profit at 28 low and/or another partial at weekly low.