Dec 22

No Trade Today. Falling Asleep

Dec 21

Lesson Learnt, VIX's very low.

Dec 17 & 18

This time I made a comeback. Sure not my best winning but I could pace again. The Technique was Volatility.

Dec26

Very Nice Trade, Swinged only $150...
Wave Price Rocks !!!

Still Losing, but this time I made a very good decision ( Not so good but quite good ).
$10.000 / month,her I come

Dec 14

Chopped Out Severely and left in dust. Damn it!!!

Dec 10

No Trade Today, but spotted a very nice pattern

Dec 9

Another Freaked Out.

Dec 8

No Trade Today, Blackout in my town

Dec 7

I had a very good pattern with channel/trendline. Freak out with Bernanke

Dec 4

5 Days Hi Freaked Out. So much for reversal played.

Dec 3

First Trade : Not Discipline, exit too late
Second Trade : Not Discipline, exit too early

Dec 2

Powerful R2, 30 minutes steroid and then busted.

Dec 1

Chopped Out Lost at the right way. Stop Loss at extreme

Nov 30

No Trade Today

What is common on Quiet Market, The Trendline, MA50 failed. Lesson Learned

NOV 24

Common Ranging Pattern :
1. S1 - PP Range
2. Double Top / Bottom Respect
3. Fibbonaci Retracement
4. MA 50 Bounce

Nov 23

R3, S3, should respect these barrier. And 1 more thing : Respect the EMA7 !

Nov 20

Slow Bear Day

Nov 19

Market went south to S3 and bounce back 3 times. Low Volume. The S3 Support seemed a very strong Support.

Nov 15

No Trade For Today. Out Of Town, Left my Laptop Charger.

NOV 15

The insight of the Loss:
1. Identifying Market Theme : Low Volume seemed to choppy like yesterday.
2. Playing MA at the choppy day means fake the break and reversal at the extreme price

Nov 13

No Trade Today.

Nov 12

Perfect Entry As Pattern Emerged. Double Top / Higher High With Slow Movement. Exit Too soon as MA 50 touch. Learn something new about volatility. Speed Means Trending And Smooth Movement means No Faked. Speed and Smooth = Nice Trending

Nov 11

Entry based on Plan, a little loose with STOP LOSS, Supposed to exit at double bottom. Greed Coming and Exit on Fear.

Early Movement didn't give HL or LL so missed it on purpose and then came my favourite setup, EMA 20 retracement.

My Market Navigation become better and better, but I have to stick with the plan.
PS : Why the hell am I expect a breakthrough on a Bank Holiday??? :(

Nov 10

I went BEP today. I still managed to navigate the chart. However I missed lot of opportunity.

Nov 9

I Used 512 TICK mainly for my Trigger. My prediction for the next best entry is the breakthrough of MA50 white candle. The safest STOP wil be <590 and the ideal STOP is at R2 (591,3).

Here's the result of my trade for today.

Trading Journal

I made my tradig journal more systematic. As a daytrader my trade decision is so micro that I wrote all my analysis that day.

So far so good that I could navigate my trading-ship where the market went. My next tasks will be:
1. Wrote my plan and execute based on those.
2. Recording the chart based on my journal at my blog along with my journal notes.

Have a nice trade ...

BLESSING IN DISGUISE ?

For the last 2 months I had a horrible drew down from my trading. Kept doing wrong, don't know what happened at the market. I lost more than $5000 in just 2 months.

Yet start this November, I made my decision to trade like never before. I stopped looking at other's chart / analysis, Reduce my attention to news, and Re-building my definition of trading. Til this day from 1st November I haven't been trading yet.
I just Paper Trade.

I bought a black book to record every detail of my thought when market open. I wrote the time, what happened, and execute with my paper trade.

Surprisingly I found a method that very simple, effective, very market approach, and every single day I learned a new thing.

I don't think I never found what I got now if I didn't had big losses. I still have a long walk to strengthen my trade.

As the result my paper trade reached 100% return less than 2 months. with initial paper trade $20.000,-

My method involved:
1. Pivot Point Target
2. Moving Average
3. Time and Tick Chart
And for the supportive I also watch:
1. TICK
2. ES & YM Chart
3. Sector and Market

My strategy need at least 5 contract traded, for scaling.

Last Word :

See A Success Beyond A Failure, What Make A Great Man

Why I Loss ???

The age-old axiom of trading is that we are to “cut our losses short, and let our profits run”. I’ve realised that what we tend to do best is the exact opposite! If we don’t condition ourselves to overcome our most natural trading insincts, chances are that we tend to “cut our profits short, and let our losses run”. Indeed, latest research in behavioral finance has revealed what traders and investors of all ages have always done, i.e. the fact that we tend to take more risk with losing positions, and become very risk-averse with winning positions. This “asymmetry” or inconsistency causes us to be unwilling to take losses and also to take profits too soon. Traders are unwilling to let a trade hit a stop-loss point, because humans are conditioned to avoid immediate pain; moving (or even removing) a stop-loss order allows one to delay the pain of taking a loss, and hopefully avoid it! With regard to profit-taking, many traders fear that a profit might “evaporate” away and take it too soon. This habit gives the immediate relief or pleasure of “locking” in profits.

If you think about it carefully, these two habits will guarantee that our profits are not sufficient to pay for our losses. Even with a high win rate, you could end up losing money!!! The right way to trade is to ensure that our profits are , on average, bigger than our losses. This is why many winning traders can be very profitable despite having a modest win rate of only slightly more than 50%. Winning traders really practise the basic principle of letting our profits run and cutting our losses short!

From http://keonghee.com

November 2 Analysis

No Trade, so I made the analysis. Must get back my 'market feeling'.

Old WIse Word From Jesse Livermore

The speculator's chief enemies are always boring from
within. It is inseparable from human nature to hope and to fear.
In speculation when the market goes against you -- you hope that
every day will be the last day and you lose more than you should
had you not listened to hope -- to the same ally that is so
potent a success-bringer to empire builders and pioneers, big
and little. And when the market goes your way you become fearful
that the next day will take away your profit, and you get out
too soon. Fear keeps you from making as much money as you ought
to. The successful trader has to fight these two deep-seated
instincts. He has to reverse what you might call his natural
impulses. Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he
must hope. He must fear that his loss may develop into a much
bigger loss, and hope that his profit may become a big profit.
It is absolutely wrong to gamble in stocks the way the average
man does.

Weekly Review Oct 19-24 2009

Bullish : Break above 1100
Sideways : Between 1080 and 1100
Bearish : Break below 1050

SPX tested 1100 two times on Monday and Wednesday. If SPX can break through 1100 then we may see upside rally.
The interesting part is RUT already made High at Sep 23. Tested new high again on Monday. We may see more downside but not very far until the Bull came again.
My View Remain Sideway.

Support 1 : 600
Support 2 : 580
Resistance : 625

Here's the condition.

Monday make an important role. On Friday Price level touch Trendline and S2. However, there's strong chance the market will test the Thursday Low. Bear Friday can't make the new weekly low so the Bull still had stronger chance.

Bullish condition : Close Above EMA 20 and Break higher on Tuesday.

Friday Chopped to Death

Nett Loss : -$374++

I screwed myself. I knew exactly when housing got out, the market will spiked up and going down for the rest of the day. But what I do? Longing..YES, my brain didn't like go with the trend. I entry about dozen times and the result quite disaster.

Friday was a rough bear. Chopped, Noisy, Whipsawed, you named it and I forgot the big picture.

There is good news and bad news.
Good news is I am disciplined enough to go out, Bad news is if I don't discipine, then at least I will breakeven.

So in sumary, it's a more learning experience for me.

More than a Bounce

Nett Profit : $310++

What a rally...I saw the rally with blank stare.

Expecting A Bounce

Made a nice $300++ profit Wednesday. Expect a bounce from the EMA and Trendline Thursday.

TF Future Rocks !!!

It had been 5 days I trade live on TF only. And I quite liked it :)
It's not about 5 consequtive winnings I made, or $500++ I collect from it but it's about the method.

Now my next challenge is to keep a good journal, and record the market. My CAMTASIA Crashed when record too much screen.

The Level II also important to record...so here's the list:
Primary :
1. TF Chart (5min & 15min)
2. IB DOM (I don't know what to call, it's the bid-ask TWS screen)
3. Level II (realized just Tuesday)
4. TICK Chart
5. Market Screen with TICK (IB too)
Consider :
1. ES Chart
2. 8 sector
3. Other chart like NQ, etc

My daily journal setup will consist:
1. Pre Market Analysis ( more to come )
2. What moved the market ( news,earning,etc )
3. Entry to Exit + reason
4. Objective Plan include daily target
5. My Brief Thought

My weekly target consist:
1. All Major Market Charts
2. Weekly Review & Wrap Up

I'll post it on my Blog..Have a great trade.. :)

Challenge with Freedom

On Wednesday to Friday I had a meeting at Bali. Then I want to challenge my future-dream lifestyle that's Trade anywhere, even on holiday.
So I made a debut with TF. 1 contract, setting stop limit, and I had $200 with only 1 trade / day. My Stop Loss less than $100 per trade.

Though it's just a small profit but I was very happy. I simulated and watch TF consistently for the last 2 weeks.

I knew someday I had to cut losses. But when that day came, I am ready. Because Cutting Losses is a part of trading.

I want another vacation and making money while on it at the market again. Dream Come True.

See You Later AMZN

I had a good trade this Sept. But I can't stand with Stocks that won't go with the Market Sentiment. Like Big Losses I had on Monday (-$563++). AMZN go South while market on Bullish Choppy mode. AMZN much behave like RIMM these days. Screwing all by herself.

On the other hand my TF trade looking great. Unfortunately it's a SIM.
Then I will go with TF. Life goes on...

Reflection Months

I had been off from blogging, especially about my trade disaster. Kept moving to other instrument and everything just didn't feel right.

It's when I realized that I want to change something that make money for the last 4months. And I didn't get to it. My stop loss kept touching, my heartbeat rose, and so on.

After a month of searching. I have decided something. I was very good on AMZN. Very f***in good with 90% winning ratio on August. And what's good must be good. Until I realized what my mistake was, it's DON'T HAVE TO TRADE EVERYDAY.

My speciality : Averaging Down and Counter Trend. I just find out why my Winning Ratio was sooo good that's because of two of them. It's just fit my personality. And Backtesting AMZN it's still in check.

AMZN tend to fake trend at first hour and then reversed. Almost everyday. Except for 2 Hour Untouch EMA that's special case and I knew how to treat it. Here's what I do on October:

1. Wait for pullback or reversal and enter. Market sentiment from news likely will made false opinion like 09/29.
2. Entered at second trend except on Trending Day which is quite rare these days.
3. Scalping with partial profit.
4. Averaging Down. I have come to this conclusion that averaging down is not a sin. It's a method.
5. Small Profit target. This is where I excelled most. My Risk-Reward Ratio sucked. But Winning Ratio is good.
6. Accept losses after string of winner.

That's will make e back on shape, after I found out the secret of Amazone, like a title book already :)

Confidence BOOST !!! Going to fly :)

Updated :
I'll decrease my contract significantly like 2 contracts at first touch. And the return would be significantly lower.

GS and ES

Correlation between GS and ES.
1. Convergence both of the GS/ES provide strong signal.
2. Divergence, better watch out the breakout.
3. Another Cnvergence
4. Again Convergence

Summary:
It's important to see confirmation from other. There's a lot of other signal, but without confirmation the probability will reduce

New Feature

I turnd to GS again. More liquid and straight forward. This stocks taught me to discipline unlike AMZN.

TICK rarely went to negative teritory. so I set up a CALL.
First CALL Flawless and got out quite good.
Second CALL not too good as being faked out but hang on as my market reading still on positive teritory, exited too premature.

Out of Blog Temporary

I'd like to improve my trading including my journal.
So, time for renovation..out for a while, back with better feature.

Coccon phase mode : ON

Mind Concieved, Can Achieved

I used this blog to express what's good for me. I refused negativity and I only cared about what make me happy. It felt like ignorance and denial for a while but it come to realization.

I realized everything I resist, persist like what I did these day through my day-job. So now I will only focus on what I want, ignoring and didn't even think about what I don't want.

Over the last 2 months I had an income that's compared to my superior. I made a very good money from trading options. I remembered that day became the most joyful day of my life. I felt in abundance and wealth.

Right now I was challenged to strecth myself to become a better trader.

God said:

You did well my Child. So you need to improve. I gave you these challenges. I know you can overcome this and after that, you will become a better trader, even one of the best among others. You can't be like this all the time. You had a superior talent, skill, and knowledge. You are my special one, different from others. And I have to boost your learning curve. Now it's your time, embraced it and feel it. This may become the most important moment from your trading journey. I had given you tremendous amount of challenge and surprisingly you still survived and improved. I knew you are different from other. You had all of the best trader needed. You can endured the long market hour, fast thinking and movement, solid determination, and proof profitability over 85%. Even you had an excellent market feeling, one of the best.
I understand these days you lacked of sleep and tired, but it's worth it. You kept motivated, and inspired from others. You are the best trader I have ever created. You deserved the hard-work, fortune, prosperity, and happiness. You are My number one Trader. So get up, fight, dance and reap massive profit from the market. And I'll see you at another challenge. You are the NEXT MARKET WIZARD !!!

Thursday Result

Nett Profit : $1448++

And the result showed up. The biggest winning through my trading career. I knew I could do it. I knew AMZN movement and today I'll made another thousand. I AM ON FIRE NOW...!!!!!

Character Building In Progress...

I made many mistakes this week. Loss attracts another loss and so on. This is what we called Law Of Attraction. But I will manage it. I built a mental positive attitude like 'Oh, it's a called to make $500 per day minimum'. Or the sign of my progress through my trading journey.

The lesson from hard day is precious and couldn't compare with how much money you paid for that. So I started feel happy, don't look at my account, just focusing on making money.

Another lesson is I can't think clearly when handling overnight contract. It's like a burden and never got used to it. So I will make money with day trading, and return to my pace, even better.

First thing to make me feel happy was giving money to someone who need. And I've done that. Feel? Warm and Abundance.

Let's Trade...

Focusing on Recovery

I had been out from blogging to recover my loss. This is the biggest loss I've ever experienced. Still In Control and I am sure I will get on pace soon, even better than before.

Here's improvement :
1. I absolutely need hard stop loss. I still can't figure the number but I need it.
2. More aggresive. I am a master of winning ratio. I just need adding volume to
increase my profit.
3. Pattern changed. Get used to it. However, my scaling down still profitable.
Except there're less opportunity.
4. Today I'll made 3 digit profit. Marked my word.

Last Day Of August

Nett Profit : $97++

Do you see the circle on AMZN and QQQQ. It's divergence when QQQQ made the double bottom, AMZN refused to do so. And that's the good sign of CALL.

Market Feeling:
Tomorrow will be a bull's head so Market seemed to ran out of BEAR. The Falling only came the first 30 min and then SLOWLY UP SIDEWAY !!!.

GS meanwhile became a market leader these days. Today's good for Scaling Down Play.

This One Should Remember :

Even last night was a disaster, I'll shall note my trade:
1. The most important thing : THE LOSS WON'T CHANGE ME, I AM STILL A CONSISTENT PROFITABLE TRADER. I AM AN EXCELLENT TRADER. AND I AM STILL PROFITABLE THIS MONTH. BEAT IT !!!
2. And then I'll start my improvement notes:
a. Beware of Market Reversal, especially when gap occured.
b. Focus on market each minute. The Theme may change and I must change too.
c. 30 min candlestick, tell me a lot.
d. Go with the market, and stick with the market.
e. Scaling down still work, though be careful with market reversal.
f. Volume is important.
g. Clear the position if Profit reached $100 when doing contrarian scaling down.
h. Time Frame is important.
i. Market Reading is still the best tools out there. You know what to do.
j. Make a detail journal.

That's for now, I feel much relieve now. See you at the TOP :)

Great Loss

Nett Loss : -$1138++

All Right, No more mediocre profit. Next Month I will double my account. We'll see.

A Reply from Great Trader

Ziad said...
Hi De'Trader,

Your trading method sounds very good to me. And your win rate is unbelievable! Good job man....

Good to see this reply over and over again. I don't care about narcist. I just care about making money...

Thursday Result

Nett Profit : $178++

I don't know what to say. Old school style again. No News, Flat Bear, Negative TICK. Market seemed too direct these days. Good Trade.

Wednesday Result

Nett Profit : $122++

Market Theme was slight bearish and then came the new house news rocketing the price. Like yesterday, after rocketing price went down to centre point ($84).

Tuesday Result

Nett Profit : $201++

Consumer Confidence was very good, Price jumped up irrational and got out at decent rational target. Price shot out $50 over my target and reversed suddenly. Got out already...Good Trade Today

Monday Result

Nett Profit : $144++

Old school style. Enter Call, go with the market, AMZN went down, keep scaling down. The result is quite moderate. oh and QQQQ, it made divergence with AMZN.

Happy Trade

Friday Expiration Day

Nett Profit : $166++

I should not push my luck as today is expiration day. This week is the BEST WEEK RESULT, $800++.

Have a nice weekend

Edge on Money Management

The Edge isn't always about trading method. Applying how you use your account is also an edge, It's a very powerful edge. Let's make an illustration:

Let's say you start with $10000, and for the first week you made $500 which is very good. Then your account must be $10500. Second week you made $500 again and now your account will be $11000. This is where disaster begin. Your brain told you now you had a $11000 on your account and you may tolerance your trade. You trade and losses $200. Your account now $10800. No Big deal...Next day you did the same again until you realized your account goes back to $10000 or even worse less than that. Now you are hurt wonder where the hell your profit go. You cursed and feeling pain and your mental state is destabilize. This goes on and on and on...take and give game, only your account is depleted because of commision.

I don't know what kind of syndrom is this but it happened to me before. I was once up $1000 on my account in less than 2 weeks. I became complacency and much forgiving with my trade. In just 3 days I lost all my profit.

This is when I came to conclusion that I had trouble with success. I had a mental block in this. So I figured out how to overcame these.

I tracked back where I had the most winning probability based on my account position. And it's at the Starting Account. So everytime I made profit I moved to another account and reset to Starting Account.

If I had a losing trade then my tolerance is 5% from my losing account. If I had $10000 than my tolerance would be $9500. That's not all. The next strategy is pay myself daily, depending on my Account. Let's say today I made $100 and the account is $10100. So I moved my $100 to my other account. But if I loss let's say my account became $9900, than I paid myself $50. There's a tolerance that below $9500 I won't get paid.

With this method I kept position myself at the edge. If I trade bad, I won't get paid. It's like I had an invisible boss. And also by 'paying me daily' method I take instant gratification everytime I make a good job. The bad thing is I never got a windfall profit with this method, but it's okay. The objective is Capital Preservation.

The first time I used the method I had 3.16% return monthly, which is a good start. The month after that I made 11.16%. This August I already booked 11.66% from my initial Capital.

I hope my share will help you through your trading journey.

Wish you the best of luck

Let's Trade

Thursday Results

Nett Profit : $100++

At least I maintained my 3 digit policy (except last Tuesday when I got home late and FOMC on schedule at 13.30 pm)
The market is sooo quiet,slow, and very iritating. I decided to low my profit target and chase it on minimum target. It's not like I can't get more. It's just the effort not worth the result.

Called it today. Wish U Have a Good Trade

$2000 withdrawal

Today I withdraw $2000 from my profit. Making it good habit to draw your profit. It's gratification for your work.

Wednesday Result

Nett Profit : $211++

Market Reversal seemed like my speciality. My trade doing so good but I know my limit. Lacked of sleep last 2 days. Time to Rest..

Great Trade :)

Tuesday Profit

Nett Profit : $231++

Bad Trade, Good Result...My Averaging Down max loss over $1000, max profit $640. Realized only $106++.
This trick is very dangerous, once slipped out, get ready to loss more than 1 week profit.

Notes : I cut my overnight call today. 1 more to go...

Do you know what is this????

The picture next to the Day is Bull's Head. 4 straight Bulls and 2 of them had already pathetically failed?
I mean when you saw the almanac, where's the date with 4 straight bulls?
I bet on the last two days... It's BULLS**T