BEARISH GOLD AND RANGE GBP

Monday's Bias for GBP was DOWN. First short only 12 pips move the stopped out. Next short near yesterday's high. Get out at double bottom. TMA was valid. ADR was tight.

Next Play is Clean Out the Herd Mentality Area. Easy Target Price. GBP may breakout on Tuesday, highly breakdown.

GOLD just breakout the strong Herd Mentality Area and not rebound. Next play is the visiting breakout area upward then clean out the breakout area downward.

WEEKEND GBP and GOLD UPDATE

GBP washed out exactly on London Open then retrace. Fake Bull Run Asia Session happened again and again. Monday Price at least move one or not both the designated price depend on price action.

Lesson to learn if spike happened like today wait the TMA to settle down before entering the market,


Gold stopped out on premature buy. Lesson to learn are more aware of ADR before entering the trade.

Recap:

• Direction prediction spot on but premature entry and price target not clear. Simply yesterday's high/low is good enough.
• Be careful with spike. Check the ADR before entry especially GOLD.
• Gap fill can become a good spot to reversal.

ROAD MAP OF MARKET MAKER

Yesterday's mistake can be avoided if I look at the bigger picture. Big breakout clearly will happen after reverse consolidation break. Also got new knowledge how price will react after the breakout.
Revisit, Almost Visit, or No Visit at all.

• Revisit then Resume is indication of Trapping the Late Trader to enter the market. Meaning the trend almost done and be ready for Big Reversal Price.
• Revisit then Consolidate is indication of luring more traders to adjust positions. It can go either way depending on How The Charts Build.
• Revisit then Reverse is indication of shaking Traders. Also meaning Fundamental Shift like Crisis or Brexit. Volatility incoming with wide spread and price range.
• Almost Visit is indication of Continue The Trend. Wait for retracement for trade with the trend.
• No Visit at all meaning big trend from Big news like POTUS being killed, another 9/11, Subprime Mortgage part 2 or MM just give up their job, turn off algos and let the Traders Run The Market. 

I like this kind of strategy. I have tried Harmonic Pattern, Pivot Trading, Bunch of Indicators, none of them suitable for me. With this MM Roadmap strategy I can track their movements all the time. The intentions, the schemes, the plots. It is like a chess games and the only objective of your enemy is to make money. It is like a race. You already know the finish line but the road is full of holes and obstacles. All you need to do is drive carefully, no need to finish first.   

WEDNESDAY UPDATE: GBP WRONG TARGET, GOLD TARGET ACCOMPLISHED

Determining which target to go can be difficult. Today's GBP downtrend should be a winner. The problem is there are 2 opposite Price Target. I need to develop strategy to determine which way price likely to hit the target. I know it sounds like a holy grail but it is not. I need to identify BREAKER BAR, THE PIVOT BAR with tight Stop Losses. If I know either Target will get hit I can enter buy then sell or vice versa if price move to other direction.

Good news is I can do Stop Loss fast when price go to other directions. This is one of the strength using Price Target.

Other news, Gold Price did exactly the analysis. Short above 1531.

Tuesday Trade

Asia Session Tight Range and very quiet London Open. Price look want to range so another MM Textbook Fake Play.

Asia Session analysis is quite important to predict market movement. Like today it didn't move much so I expect London Fake Breakout multiple times.

ADR also play crucial roles as it already make same range with yesterday's in just few hours London Open.


“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

Sun Tzu

WELL PLAYED GBP SHORT!

Market Maker Manipulation Text Book!!

They plan to to hit the Target Zone and what they did was a text book manipulation to the Core.

1. Asia Session create a fake bull run
2. Reverse before the West Market open. Not many retail traders ride the price move from the high of the day
3. Fake bull run on London open make a double top on 1 minute chart
4. Ride all the way to the Fat Juicy Target Zone

Here is some simple strategy to counter these manipulation:

• Asia Session rarely to change direction three times in one day. Usually there is Whipsawed, Range, and One Way.  Like today it is Range Market aka. Two Ways. So what happened when price reverse near or when West Market open is the true direction.
• If we missed the high of the day which is happen on Asia Session then we can wait Euro or London open for retracement.
• Check the ADR if there is enough fuel to ride the price at the Destination Place.
• A nice 32 pips today. Quick and Clean.

What is important:

TARGET...TARGET...TARGET is most important. With target you can Money Management the trade depends on the entry.

Any entry will give profit if target is HIT. But best entry might become losses if  the Target is not credible.

WEEKEND UPDATE

GBP will reach Target Price. If Price Go Up before hit the target Price then wait for Short Chance.
GOLD play is wait for the Buy Chance.

XAU PLAY and GBP HALT

Gold Buy Signal if Price Close above 1506. Target Profit on Short Zone.
GBP make a good range trade today. No update since no Price Key hit yet.

Fast Update Daily Chart GBP

If Price close below 1.2500 then it may become consolidation area for a while. Price break above 1.2500 may become short opportunity if ADR still applied. There is high chance of wick above price level for tomorrow play.

If price close above 1.2500 only look for long setups as price close above the key level and may target the next key level.

If price close below 1.2420 which is highly unlikely it is probably a shift to a very strong bearish sign.

The most high probability scenario is price may close inside 1.2420 and 1.2500 zone for next days.

Tuesday Update GBP Mission Accomplished

Market Maker leave the trails going up. I think many people doing the same strategy as I did. Many times price not hitting the targets or just scratch the zone. I am not surprised if price not penetrate the Target Zone before reverse.

Lessons from this trade:

• Price move whipsawed before big trend to shake the holding positions in this case 2x double    bottom and fake spike when London Open.
• Price only scratch the Play Zone. Likely to miss the setups.

1 min TMA is needed especially if I did the reverse trade like this trade. London open spike can give 15 pips more profit which is nice.

The strategy shifted since maybe so many traders doing the same strategy so MM won't let we ride the 100 pips wave. Be very aware when price rejected just above the play zone. It is probably the MM doing.

After price hit the TARGET ZONE we need to update new price level. I will keep updating very soon..

Monday Update GBP

Price Retrace before hitting the TARGET ZONE indicate MM want to lure traders to short. Herd Mentality breakout without hunting stop losses make traders trapped both long and short.

MM need more sellers to drive market up. The best way is to drive price going down more into the PLAY ZONE before price GOING UP.

Weekend Update

Target Zone on the upside. Price might retrace a bit to scare traders and stop loss hunter. Before price reach the BIG TARGET ZONE then long position is still valid.

Good strategy is to buy on every dip when stop loss hunter happened. Price may consolidate and choppy for quite some time and may hit the target with big spike. Be aware and keep cautious.

Update GBP

Friday will be a tough day. Another lower high is indication to attract more shorts and shakes the longs. It is a strong signal for long breakout maybe next week after more longs are cleared

Stop Loss Hunter Experiment

After long time inactive I post new experiment about Stop Hunting Money Maker. This is GU hourly chart. More Buyers trapped than Sellers. It means Price will likely going down to Trigger the Stop Losses before Going Up again.


More update soon...