Thursday, March 31, 2011
CL started strong above prev day high. Green bar appeared meant strong momentum. No choice, long only.
Long every pullback, until proven otherwise.
I had my Dr Hyde short at 106.34 that moved to 106.77 less than 1 minute! I couldn't realize why the hell I was doing that. Managed to get out with -$84 (I deserved more than that), I planned to long everything. Everything means every breakout at 100 ticks candle. It wasn't good.
Hunting the bottom, not good. I would finish trading with -$500 losses before lunch time.
However, since I hunted the bottom, I was not stopped out too fast. The only mistakes I made was try to catch a falling knife.
As usual, please comment
I made desperate trading, I even thought this would be my last day of trading. Apparently, I still had chance to move on. Work work work harder!
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
I was recklessly averaging down...
I trade against my own system...
I trade purely recklessly discretion all day...
Those four sins enough to blow my account in less than one month! I planned to trade after inventory report. Suddenly, Mr. Hyde came into my body and I long before the inventory report. Stopped out twice, the second slipped 3 ticks few seconds before inventory report. After news, price came down and I was long along the way (what am I thinking?) Stopped out again. Then I long again and NO STOP LOSS! I was too late entering the SL. Long @73, price went down to @44. I got out with small losses @00. Then I wanted to short every breakout candle all the way. The green bar showed below 104.20 signal was short. I even short above the green bar..sigh!! Talkin about dangerous bias. I was down -$189, before I was short @34, Price moved up through 115!! Again, no stop losses!
Then the worst part happened, I averaging down at 110! This was even worse action than my previous trading! And this is lucky shot, I short near the PEAK! I waited and got out @80 for total -$277. My last contract hanging around for hours, until it broke down and I lowered my dynamic Stop Loss. Stopped out (There's no way to protect my position near volatility closing pit time). Today, I was trading dangerously, recklessly, the demon lurking again inside me. It's now become more dangerous than ever. Following the system purely will result decent profit $400 to $500. I just get lucky today got out breakeven from -$979 :(
Tomorrow, last day of the month. Definitely I will trade defensively. This experience should take me back to my positive zone.
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
I realized that I am again coming back to my old bad habit again. Reviewing the past at least refreshing my mind how futile I was those past days. How easy I forgot those bad days because of just two weeks awesome profit.
I don't know what should I do tomorrow. Almost no signal on Crude Oil. Nothing... Last two days rely heavily on luck, big big luck. Crude Oil will move. Yes it will. So I must prepare myself for the day. No more reckless trading!!!
I found strategy for this slow, low volume days like recent days. Fading at key points. Monday: No trade, Tuesday : max $500 profit. Less than actual, but it's discipline and measurable.
Tomorrow is inventory report. I couldn't expect less than nice directional move from Crude Oil.
Weak bias on the start, already broke 103.30 (my demand zone).
Short until bullish confirmation appear
Another discretion with rough start. Down -$347 at max. My short stopped out with 2 ticks slippage, twice! I disciplined with my Stop Losses and extended Stop Losses were nice
I used another ladder stop losses. This things better than trailing stop IMO. Looked at the chart. I was stopped out at my short. After news came, price up and down and up. I was prepared to go long since my 103.30 already pierced up again. I placed my Stopped limit at 103.64, price rocketed thorugh my order. Planned to entered at the pullback, nothing. I decided to long every pullback. First pullback stopped out with another 2 ticks slippage. I re-entry at better price, it went up. Price chopped up there. I kept re-adjusting my SL based on chart, it worked! CM Road Map #1 was at 104.33, price moved to $103,29 then fell quite deep. Thanks to my SL, I was saved. Price stalled at CM Road Map #1. I wanted to extend the price around +10ticks more. At first I wanted to move the PT at CM Road Map #2, but I already got out. Last SL was at breakeven of the day. I decided to pick the extension not CM Road Map #2 since there's no surge volume AGAIN. Five consequtive low volume.
The first entries was bad. Too many discretion. I was helped by my SL discipline. I was confused with the market. First start, it definitely a downtrend, then suddenly price soared up. I was short and short. It happened to be a pullback. Clear Long signal from CM Pattern at 103.63 skipped to 103.68...If I was filled there, I'd took overall at least $400. I should grateful cause it's another bonus trade. No volume again and again. I'll stop trading for the day unless there's volume coming.
CM Road Map can be a nice S/R at the weak volume like today. Today, CM Road Map #2 at 104.74 might become high of the day or at least there's pullback 40 ticks.
Monday, March 28, 2011
Another stellar result from CL. My order wasn't filled again. I couldn't afford missing the train, especially after hit sl multiple times. I set the order setting and my order from the bottom got fill. I didn't know why I trade at that level. I just saw the nice faked lower low followed with key reversal pattern. Lucky I was filled at the whole-buy entry. If I got the retail price, the chop was quite severe. I just hang on on my trade, adjust my Stop Loss higher and higher. The trick came from Pending Home Sales 10.00 EST. Price spiked up then retraced more than 50 cents. I almost stopped out (actually twice). Preparation : CL gapped down below last three days's low, weak. Light volume on down move.
As usual fading the low if there's no big volume showed downtrend. Waited for faked lower breakout.
Not very discipline, I entered at whole-sale entry. Not much confirmation yet. However, my trade followed by key reversal the chopped and whipsawed. Exit of target price, no volume momentum there. The Cm Road Map too far up there at $106.20. If there's green bar, I will wait to breach those level. None so I got out. Planned to trade again if there's green bar. If not, end of day.
Hard Work :
I protected my order. The retail signal had massive chopped aka faked breakout. If I long the retail price, I will stopped out 2-3 times before price went up. There's no way I can make big profit from retail price. Price moved erraticaly touched the initial entry multiple times. The peak when price surged to 41 (near pit session opening) and dropped more than 50 cents in an instant, followed by one tick faked breakout at the low. Surely will stopped out there. Kept protecting my order from spiked stopped out, twice having the almost stopped out experience.
Feel free to comment :)
Should wait till end of day
Sunday, March 27, 2011
As I mentioned over and over again, there's only one day of green bar that worth to trade. No surging fast volume in 4 days of the week really make me think something. I must admit, if I only allowed my rules in play, I only made $500 - $1000 at max in one week of trading. It's all from one day trading.
Now, it's frustrated if next week will happen like this again. But also, I cannot push my luck too far. I need your opinion about what I should do. My finding through the light trading week is this:
1. Without the big volume, my hypotesis the Crude Oil will move sideways. It happened this week, but I am not quite sure about this.
2. I had Profit Measurement from CM RoadMap. I saw twice this week, without the green bar it acted as a S/R. I can't backtesting it due to lack of data and skills.
3. The CM RoadMap breached 87% in the same time. If not, another 87% breached the next day. This fact alone is very useful to develop an edge. But I can't measure which way to go if there's no green bar.
4. Choppy filter from Eds Renko helped me a couple times this week.
5. Heavy consolidation (double inide bar, inside-outside-inside as always, worth the $$$)
I really have no clue what I will do next week. I can't just rely on my luck heavily. So I'll do this next week:
1. If there's again no greenbar, I will play the Sideways, though I don't like it, but as trader I must accept all kind of enviornment and become consistent. Of course I still use the CM Pattern as my signal. There're two kinds of Range Play:
A. Heavy consolidation like No.5
B. CM RoadMap Breached without greenbar
C. Daily Chart, based on consolidation and reversal play
2. Avoid Choppy like last hours of Friday. Heavily chopped and it identified on the radat with six same bar renko! I will add different range renko bar to optimize the filter.
3. Money Management still intact, five losses aka $500 maximum losses in a day. CL almost everyday give at worst one or two swing. The problem is, sometimes I already reach the max losses before it move. So I will reduce my number of trades with the rules above.
4. I read ONE GOOD TRADE from Bella and I will implmeneted his principle from start this Monday. It consists:
Preparation, Hard Work, Discipline, Communication, Evaluation.
That's it for Week's play. I expect your opinion from the plan and wish of luck to all of you. IF you need help bout trading, contact me. Though I am not a profitable yet, I'll do my best to help you. :)
Friday, March 25, 2011
I just saw the unrealized losses became bigger and bigger! The peak was -$870!!!
If I was filled on everything, I would stopped out -10 ticks, then the short @ 28 would give me at least 60 ticks. Total would be $500!!!
I planned to bet all my weekly profit today and ate the bullet. My maximum Stop Loss would be -$1800 or whatever the price at closing hour. I knew it wasn't right. But I didn't see a big volume out there and from my backtesting, no volume had high chance of reversal. And it did. So I just waited the price pierced through my price, and got out +21 ticks. This is God's Gift, so I thankful for His Mercy.
I will trade again if there's significant volume. If not, I'll close the week with $2150 before commission. Not a bad week at all :)
Thursday, March 24, 2011
So again, I sabotaged myself. Start with straight profit in the book, I then short every new high happened, with very small SL. It ate me alive though I had right direction. Last entry stopped me out at the exact tick before fell more than 30ticks.
I should not trade. Obviously there's no volume momentum. The only day it had volume momentum is Tuesday. Other days, even inventory day, none.
The emotional baggage coming inside me. I started to sabotage myself again. Until I realized I was down -$154 from the peak, I stopped trading. I won't trade again until there's volume momentum coming. If I violated my plan, I'll stop trading forever.
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
My PC made strange noise, like a knocking door sound. Fortunately it happened outside my trading time. I checked, unplugged some of my hardware to find out where's wrong. I am afraid my Motherboard busted, but there's hope since it still can boot, though it then restart with the strange noise. If my motherboard damaged, it's quite troublesome. My PC bought at 2008 with Core 2 Duo. Now everything seemed using i-Core. You know how it felt to buy an outdated product while the newer product have the same price? Though if I bought new product, then I had to replace my RAM and processor also.
Thank God, it's 'only' the Primary Hardisk. When I unplugged it, the sound dissapeared and the computer didn't restart. This is the second time this year my hardisk damaged (different computer) so I had enough with those technology. I decided to buy SSD :) No spinning stuff, much stronger than those ancient hdd. I looked at the price and, more than 10 times the HDD (same size). I can afford it, but I don't want having expensive stuff with no use. So I bought the 60GB. 32GB, the cheapest is too small. The price is even more expensive than 2TB HDD. But I will use it maybe until judgement day come. If I bought the HDD again, I'm sure it won't stand too long.
The problem not finish. I installed the empty SSD and...my Win7 DVD won't read. I had to find a new copy...sigh. The new copy had the SP1 in it. I didn't realized it, until I install NinjaTrader 6.5 and... IT DIDN'T RUN AT Win7 SP1...WTF!!! Trading time already came.
So I am not using Ninja Trader At All. I used thinkorswim which was lagging horribly. Without volume moemntum, whipsaw filter, 100 ticks, I just intended to long after inventory report. First entry stopped out at the very exact tick, and rarely I had positive slippage. Second entry I had good price at 58 and it never looked back at all. The CM Pattern showed at 106.02, I put my PT at 106.08...little greedy. Price then without many burden went up and touch the 106.03... I decided to get out at 94 since CM Pattern touched and there's no continuation. Gladly it is a very good decision.
I almost short at 85 since there's very nice key reversal there, but I doubt since I was trading without Ninja Trader. A very nice $700 profit there if I entered. No regret. I got out at PT and no more trading without my chart. Today I may not trade and IMO it's a good reason. But I can't stand aside since inventory day usually offered big reward. After touched the PT and reversed, I had no guidance where's my next PT. It's wise to stop until my Ninja Trader fixed.
I will re-installed the win7 without the Sp1. I can't convert the indicator to Ninja 7.0, End of trade today.
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
The only trade I disciplined today is : Stop Losses and Profit Target.
Entry, guess the direction and followed it. I was in danger mode, two times undisciplined in a row. But If I just picked the direction and followed it, the result was very good.
Doin micro scalp here and there. Doin scalpin while we already in fat-green was very light-hearted. I planned to leaved at least $500 at the table. I was very lucky having additional $160 for the day
Monday, March 21, 2011
Another no volume day in my chart, so why the hell am I trading? The demon inside me is lurking again. I decided to take only long signal after missing first short. The damage won't be big.
I slipped from CL, so horrible. Total for 3 trades, I slipped 4 ticks. My first short unfilled, went around 85 ticks. Then I saw a nice doji and I wanna long. Stopped out twice, filled nicely at 102.77...I wanted to wait till this bugger moved to CM Road Map, or at least 100 cents moved. It moved 72 cents, and then in a erratic move, stopped me out with 3 ticks slippage! Went for another three ticks, it moved up to the top faster than it went down.
All of my losses today came from slippage. I felt quite miserable today. Controlling my emotion is the hardest things to do in trading. But I must admit it is impossible to make home run today. The pullback is like a mini trend. Very deep. Quit for the day unless there's big volume momentum coming which is highly unlikely will happened!
Update: Made small profit before closing. The pullback is impossible. I decided to close my trade cause the pit session closed. Really undisciplined.
Saturday, March 19, 2011
Maybe most of you already know how pressure can affect the performance of the trader. Pressure is something you should avoid at all cost. Pressure create expectation.
When I was overconfidence several months ago, I thought the market as my own ATM machine. I kept thinking that it's easy making money. If I wanted, I just kept trading with my system and money will flow. I felt like a great trader, a big guy with awesome talent. I felt like a super trader, until subconsciously it crushed me to pieces.
The basic things first you should embrace is, cut losses small or early. If you can't accept this truth, you will fail guaranteed. This is the core of every traders out there. Cut losses early.
You must made your brain and yourself comfort with the cut losses early. I realized after the last one year, I thought I accept the cut losses early in me. I AM NOT!!! Why?
1. Often impulsively get back in trade after stopped out.
2. Adding the size of my trade after consequtive stopped out.
3. Against the trend with small stop losses.
All those things happened because I WANT TO GET BACK THE LOSSES!!! The real thing is I can't accept the losses. I don't want to get red on that day. I want as soon as possible make it green again. Sometimes I trade undisciplined, the worst. But even with disciplined trade, it won't solve the problem. It happened when I losed more than $1400 in less than 1 hour. Chopped out like crazy at Crude Oil. I trade disciplined, yes I followed all the signal there. The problem is: There's always time when we have to accept the losses, stop and go on to the next day. Always. There's also time when you stop, the market will move your way. Always happen and will happen.
So, before entering a trade, let's make questions for yourself that day. Simply yes or no answer:
1. Are you willing to stop trading after losing _________ (fill your max daily losses) today, no matter what happened to the market after you stop trading?
2. Are you okay if your trading plan today make you lost money?
3. Are you ready to let your unrealized profit gone because you follow your trading plan?
4. Are you okay being stopped out and the market moved without you in it because you missed/slipped the entry?
5. Are you accepting the truth that maybe your execution error will bring you losses of the day?
6. Are you okay even in the good market condition, you still can have a losing day?
7. Are you okay waiting all day and not doing trade at all because of the plan?
8. Are you okay if after you make profit the market still move further without you?
9. Are you okay if market stopped you out at the exact tick?
10. If all those 9 questions happened today, are you still can trade the next day at your best interest in mind?
If you answered 'yes' for all those questions, you still not guaranteed to succeed. You still need a good edge.
Friday, March 18, 2011
Since there's no signal from CL (actually there's big volume selling but it's outside pit session). If I just short, there's decent profit opportunity. My CL trade there actually not undisciplined entering and exiting. It's my new system for slow market like today. Still in beta testing. But I am willing to accept the risk to lose money.
TF, I just using my old conventional pattern plus a little volume momentum. Exit just by random guessing.
Planned to trade ZS but I decided not to. Lack of confidence.
Overall today's trade just bonus trade. I still waiting the volume momentum from CL in case it's blow out. But since volume already half-half with May Contract, highly unlikely it will happen. Or at best it happened near the closing pit which I won't bother to trade.
I have some homework to do, enhancing my Profit Target of Crude Oil. It seemed that the CM Road Map often touched at the next day. Yes I applied some of coiledmarket.com stuffs.
So if there's no big volume momentum at Crude Oil, I'll close the week. Next week, same strategy, and maybe I had new system for other symbol.
Have trouble uploading the picture. Overall of the week: sweet $2249
Thursday, March 17, 2011
I got out one of the biggest emotional burden I've ever had for the last three years. One thing that kept me anxious in trading. Thing that froce me to profit every day rather than maximize profit. Thing that always keep me to take profit early and overtrade.
Once I have no more obligation and it changed 180 degrees. Now I can relax more in trading. I can afford losing $500 in one day and stop trading. No overtrade. No guilty feeling when my $300 unrealized profit being stopped out. More patient to wait the trade moved further. No impulse to trade every day ( No trade Oil for two days in a row ).
I don't say it will last forever. But I just show how strong the emotional burden can affect our trading. Can't deny it.
Since I trade so little these last days.
Another undisciplined trade from me..yaay. Should be no trade-day again. And I think that, if I picked long or short, then I might lower my risk. So I long, probably until there's volume momentum told me to short. Since it's free-trade, I just happy even it got back on par. The plan is, if this trade stopped out for small profit, I will wait until there's volume momentum. Till I closed, there's none. More than two hours painful waiting. Actually I wanted to wait until it reached 100cents as usual. But I can't stand the slowliness of the market anymore. Got out, no regret, free trade, I need a drink.
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Monday, March 14, 2011
I'm gonna recap of what I learnt from trading after all these 4 years.
I started like 99% of other traders out there when begin this work. Cut profit early, let the losses run, averaging down, no stop losses. I did this almost 3 years of my trading. I went to workshop with no good results. IMO, it's because there's very little aspect touching the psychology of trading if not nothing at all.
Then until I invest on good education and gradually improved my trading result. Now, I'm willing to cut loss early, very rarely let the losers run, and started to letting the profit run further. Things were getting better. But somehow I become complacent and things get bad again. I still cut losses early, but going against the trend. Sometimes, two seconds after cutting losses, I got back to the trades hoping I reached the top/bottom of the day. The results were the same if not worse than letting the losses run at the first place.
I did the same mistakes over and over again, usually after I did some succeed doing that, repeat it and failed worse. Until I was no longer willing to fight against the trend at all. But problems not stopped here. Yes, the losses get smaller than doing the old mistakes, but I also not getting profit at all. It's because one and one only reason. Chopped out severely and not willing to accept it. I trade my signal aggresively even ten losses in the row won't stopped me. Sometimes I did worse thing like doubling the size of my trade. It often worked, but if it didn't, the cost will much much greater than when it worked. I knew something still wrong.
Hundreth of hour, I did research and developed a system to get out from this mess. A system not to get rich quickly. A system that limiting myself to become an overtrading jerk. System that even when it didn't work, I don't lose too much. It's a system that reduced my trades to only quarter than the past. I proudly said that I have found the system. Not perfect, but I believed it good enough at least for surviving. Now, I am not a crazy flipper short and long just to win back what I lost in a matter of second. Not down -$1000 while the clock still pointing 10.00EST. The system just not allowed me to do it. And I always improved the system, not for profiting every day, but aiming how to minimized the losses in a bad time and optimized the profit at the good time.
I still had emotional and pressure baggage to perform good every single day. Though I must accept the harsh truth that I must stopped trading if I reached the certain limit of losses, while also accepting the fact that signal after stopped trading will give massive profit. That's the time when I felt faith playing at me. But it's trading. I observed,analysed the system on every minutes and dropped in my blood. I improved. Like on Wednesday when I decided to use longer ticks chart or when I learnt how to read volume momentum in better way. Non-Stop Improvement while at the other hand, I will let my system to do what it should do. Over-improvement is not good and hard to tracked the consistency. I also now including the Profit Target into my trading agenda.
No 100% perfect system in the world of trading. No matter how hard you did, there's always be losses, daily losses, even weekly and monthly losses. That's why the emergency-safety button is needed. No more trade for the day after 5 losses in a row.
If I can follow the above word, Not just me, all of us can be the best trader in the world.
Friday, March 11, 2011
As long as I am in long mode, definitely I'll made profit today
I admit, the entry was not fully by the rules. Not confirmed yet by Anchor Bar, though the Anchor Bar already shown up. There's however a long signal @100. At first I wanted to scaling up but canceled it. I didn't want to mess things on Friday. By the time Anchor Bar confirmed long, I was already in the trade. Not a good example, but actually I was ready to face the consequences. If I was stopped out, I would wait for confirmation. Luckily there's only strong bull. So I just raised the SL, raised again below the last pullback. I almost stopped out at the third pullback but lucky again I canceled it. It's the exact tick trap before price moved further to north. The reason I canceled it because price liked to faked a little to the pullback. By the time it made new high, I raised my SL back to last pullback. Worst can happened, I'll be nett more than $500. Who knows price jumped little further and took my 100 ticks target. Any reason I resumed trading? No! It's "Thank God It's Friday"
I trade on my best interest zone. The real target actually at $101.06 spot, but I'll be happy with the current result.
For Nett of this week, -$354
1. Not good for breaking the rules, this is only luck. Just remember I had $360 spared from breaking the rule. (from 99.64 to 100.00)lol.
2. Dynamic Stop Profit, better instead of fix Stop Profit. I can't afford dynamic Stop Losses yet so that'll be fine.
3. Trade with the best interest in mind. I could easily profit taking at $200,$300,$500, and that's pretty good result. But I thought bout this: If I was down -$1000, I always waiting the price at least breakeven. And why the hell I took profit early when I was not in red? So I just waiting the free trade do their stuffs and it worked! Next time probably not.
Thursday, March 10, 2011
But also, if I sticked to the plan and trade all day I made huge profits today. A little give and take and actually I had my anchor bar said long before the news. But the choppy really annoying.
Crude Oil really really the hardest and toughest symbol to trade in the world now. I salute to all oil trader out there.
1. It's wiser not to trade after big move happened 01.00 EST onward. Choppy and very volatile. I stopped out twice in just 5 seconds!!
2. I reconsidered my daily limit losses again. Two days I had movement only after the daily limit triggered.
3. Must looked for a new filter method. Renko Bar's very late.
My Anchor Bar told me not to go long. First Entry common stopped out. Second Entry is Hell. I got 2 ticks slippage and the price teased my Stop Losses. So, when it -5cents I got out, planned to short again at 102.29. And Price just blast through my order, Damn!!!
Holding my -15cents cause of operation error really make me unease. Then price stalled again, added another 3 Stop Losses of Chopped. I am -45 ticks, only 5 ticks to called it the day. Lucky I took my last trade which move my favor pretty fast. It stalled for a while around 101.20, I trailed my Stop to 50 ticks. Still minus if stopped. Then I waited and waited. Raised my Stop Order to +50 ticks when price made one ticks faked at the low. And it only one tick away to stopped me out and price dived down again. Got out at my 100ticks Profit Taking and call it a day.
If I didn't screw the second trade, I may made $700-$900 today. But it's part of trading. The thing I only hope is I am not messing too much.
The Anchor Bar worked very well today. Still getting lot of chops even after I raised my ticks. But if I used faster ticks, I'll end the day with ugly losses again. Worse, without my Anchor Bar, I might have double my early losses. So thanks to the slower ticks chart and Anchor Bar. The Renko Bar pertty useless for filter today. I should worked out more on my choppy filter.
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
I never think to stop trading unless I can't trade anymore. After three years of trading with negative result, I can't believe I am still doing it. What drive me keep trading because never in my life I have things that I liked to do to the fullest. But liking with talents not always in the same line.
The reason I want to trade it's I want to help people, in trading of course. I really want to help but instead, I am the one who need help. I remembered when I have good few months in trading, I made very encouraging and positive post all over the place. Like embrace the losses, keep discipline, etc. I know you also like to help people. But maybe the purpose for helping people is to satisified my ego needs to become important. But never in my life, I am happy when other people suffer. But I am happy if others doin' good or fine.
About stop losses, I will contact you later but since our trading style is different, I am not hoping too much. Thanks for writing me this long. Appreciate it so much.
You are indeed a very good person. And all your writing really touch me a lot. You're right about me. I already cut my trading time only at US session. And all the free time, I did useless things. Whether it's still related to trading or just surfing around aimlessly. One of things I really want is having a good proportional body. I am slightly overweight now lol. Too lazy to go to gym, or maybe don't want to see other people cause of my miserable background.
I place the trade to number one priority because I want to give happiness to all the people I loved. My parents, my so, my families, my friends, including all the blogger out here, everyone. Placing trading as number one priority in life is not good. It's just business. Really, I always want if I made consistent in trading, I will reduce the activity to the minimum.
As you suggest, I'll do other activity to balance my life. Thanks, it's really enlightening me. Do something for nothing, that's something I lacked of. How do you know a lot about me :) ?
Honestly, I really disliked to get sympathy from other. I want to be the one who help people, not otherwise. But my condition now actually really need help. So thanks for the all the help you give me. I really wish I can pay your good deed later.
Wednesday trade, if I was in my best condition to trade, I'll still take the same losses. I did very mechanical trade. Sometimes the difference between win and lose is only one trade difference. Now the only thing encourage me is, I have good confidence that I can recover from this losses. Not a revenge trading. Simply a discipline trade will cover my losses one or two days. Why? Because I learnt everytime I made loss, I'll figure it out what's the problem? Is it my lame execution? My undiscipline trade? Or my lousy system. Wednesday is just my lousy system, so I think nothing wrong with me. Looking to improve my system. The only improvement now is make a fewer and more fewer trade. Until even I losed all my trades that day, I'll be okay. On my way to it.
I'll write the emotion. U're right cause I can't write my personal life to the blog. It's embarrasing though nobody knows me in person. Thanks for the advice. I'll do it.
Now, at my state, I have no rights to give advice to you. If you don't like it, it'll be fine. I think you taking profit too early in your trading. Since you used Oanda, why not letting one or two small lots to move far beyond your imagination?100 pips?200pips? I can't do it in oil since I already trade one contract. If you trade one, now trade 4 with same size of capital. I rhink you already know it cause it's in Mark Douglas book.
Thank you for the chart but I really don't know what you mean..
Thank you for all the advice and attention. Losing is really never a good thing, especially if the losses or profit become the number one priorty in my life. So one thing I'll do is...the hell with losing. I mean it's not like losing forever. It's become like gambling but...you know what I mean.
The system worked. Only it need a little improvement here and there. And today, I am ready to rumble again. Worst thing can happen? Losing another $500, lol. Best thing can happen? Never know for sure.
1. I am scared. I am afraid having losses again and again.
2. I am desperate. I am afraid tomorrow I will take profit early again because of No.1 reason.
3. My self-confidence and self-esteem below zero now. I can't trust myself anymore.
4. I feel like, what the hell am I doing? I just worked hard just to lose money. Gradually I will bankrupt myself to death.
5. Of Course I am under pressure to make money. Who doesn't?
And another thing that pissed me of that, actually I can recover my losses if after last stopped out I made one last trade.
There's short signal @ 104.96 which dived to 104.07. That's $890 swing.
Very achievable if I got $100 to $200 nett profit today. Instead I just quit trading because of my stupid rules and my faked anchor bar (the last one make me no trade at all which is much better thing than losing).
The very next day when I violate the rule, I will be crushed to pieces.
I know I should be ready to lose everytime I trade. But the pressure to make money's so big. And oddly enough with all these pressure and high level stress, I can execute my plan flawlessly. But no worth since it's a loser.
Am I should be compliment or be cursed with my action today? Discipline with negative result.
Next day Strategy:
1. Still $500 Daily Loss Limit.
2. Change the 40ticks --> 100ticks for entry. Fewer signal and more reliable.
3. Anchor Bar.
4. No Trade Whipsawed.
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
I know I have problems. I lost confidence in trading. I disrespect the market. I underestimate Crude Oil. I trade emotionally bad. From my historical track, it's very hard to profit consistently if I stop after $500 losses. It's almost impssible especially in today's CL violence movement.
Forgive me about all my past emotional post. I still have the silly expectation in me. Amateurs or newbies usually don't take their stops and hoping the price will come back to theirs. I overtrade too much expecting the price will move directly and erase all my losses. Different implementation, same result.
Market will consolidate beyond our expectation. It never have 100% pattern. Even 90% pattern is rare, but if there's the 10% will eat me alive like Monday.
I stopped improving after Monday, that's big mistake. I need to improve endlessly. But most important, I need to repair myself.
Monday, March 7, 2011
I will do my best to lose money. I will trade to lose money now. I hate to profit. I want to losing it. My primary goal is to lose $500 a day. It's not hard. I can do it. Tuesday will be my losing day. I'll go bankrupt in no time.
However I must limit my losses. I can't stand to make back all my losses after -$500. I don't want to cover my losses. I can't be greedy since my losses may become profit if I don't careful. I must plan my losses.
Some people think I'm crazy. If losing money is crazy thing then 95% of trader in the world is crazy cause they're keep losing money. They're crazier since they're losing money while they kept struggle to profit.
Now my post will full of happy quotes when I losed. I hate winning days. I hoped I never see these days again. Why struggle to make profit if you're better to lose. It's like Megamind movie, why try to be a hero when you're best doing a villain.
Now how I will losed, I will do like this:
1. I'll enjoy my free-time without charting time. No more new ideas, new method, whatsoever.
2. I'll trade very discipline how to lose. I have my rules, I'll stop trading if I reached my daily losses.
3. Profit is a curse. Avoid making profit.
No more hardwork outside Market time. :)
The bottom in my life never came to an end. No I dig a deeper hole for my own grave. This is by far the worst feeling of my entire trading. I just don't understand. Friday, I could made green...operator error stopped me out on everything. Now Monday, I should stopped. But everything was in ruin.
I worked so hard to make a system that very good. It worked very nice today. I just keep sabotage myself. Why did I do that? Why misfortune came to me over and over again? Why? Why? Why can I just enjoy the day after good trade? Why can I just have a blackout after I had profit? Why should I have to experience this violence chopped? Why? Why?
For me trading now's like one hellish adventure. Honestly I don't know how to cover back my losses. It's too big damn big. I still have confidence with my newly system. But at best it only produced $200-$300 per day on my confort level. I need more than that. Why trading 's very hard?
The pain for me unmeasurable. How many thousands of hours I spent for this damnation? I worked everyday to do my best. I worked so hard to make this happened. But one tiny mistakes, resume trading at 01.30 EST bring me disaster. I should quit trading after reached the $500 losses or 5 losses in a row. But after I stopped, what if the price move on my way? It happened all the time. I can't stand it.
Really painful, really pissed off, really angry. The first two trades today, I was already losed $189, what a joke. Then I climbed up to $330 at max before going down to deep hell.
I know exactly what scenario tomorrow. Either I booked early $200 profit than quit for the day, grinding day after day waiting my unavoidable doomsday like today or stop after losing another $300 which is very easy to do and feeling like want to kill myself, or go to direct hell wiped out all my tiny account in one day. Each ways is no better. I can't believe myself to ride the profit run.
But it's true that I never experienced this brutal violence of whipsawed without any movement at all on CL...The most brutal things I have ever expereinced. If I just stopped trading and be happy with my small profit. If I just stopped trading after I losed one or two times, If...if..if..., nothing really matter...
So, it's settled. Here's what I will do this day onward (Keep telling this over and over again and yet never make it right):
1. Still doing my system, the bias system with discipline.
2. If reached minimum $300 profit realized and want to continued then max losses of the day will be $0, no question asked.
3. If losses reached $500(normal slippage is tolerated) , stop trading, no question asked.
4. I will honest with my result.
5. Will post my trading result in this blog.
HERE'S THE DEAL!!!!
IF I VIOLATE EVEN ONE RULE ABOVE, I WILL QUIT TRADING FOREVER. I WILL STOP LOOKING AT CHART, I WILL RETIRE IN THIS BUSINESS FOR GOOD.
"MAY GOD AND MY FELLOW READER AND BLOGGER BE MY WITNESS"
Please, remind me if I broke those rules. I already tired of this trading activity. I might as well be a mindless robot trading and losed all my money now. It took some days to wiped out all my capital.
Now I kept trading to the death of my account. No expectation, No hopes, No dreams, just mindless drone trader. Whatever the result, I don't really care. I don't care about my emotion, I don't care if I lose 10 days in a row, I don't care if I don't make any money after one month of trading. I don't care if I failed, Don't care if I lost all my account doing this, Don't want to think about new strategy again, I am tired of researching and backtesting with negative result. Let it be my mediocre system with my mindless drone Trading Management. Now I am just emotionless trader, operated mechanically until I met my doom.
To be honest, I am tired of this shit. So exhausting with no result. Emotionally not healthy. Now I just become a robot, like...Oh I lost $500 already, done for the day. Or, oh my profit from $300 now gone to $0, done for the day. No more thinking like if you stop you missed the move...stop now you'll regret it, or doing wishful thinking like..oh if I put the last trade, I may made a fortune.
I DON'T CARE IF AFTER I STOPPED THE PRICE MOVED $10.000,- IF IT STOPPED,IT MEANS STOPPED. NO REGRET, NO FEELING, NO EMOTION.
I know my new system is still premature with lack of backtesting. Well, I don't care. I am tired of looking of new strategy, new indicator, etc.
I lost hope with all my trading activity. No more expectation for a better living....no dreams of having a good income from trading....get rid desire of trading anywhere around the globe. No Hope, No Fear, No Greed. No afraid thinking what happened if I lose 5 days in a row. No planned to change strategy for better trades or avoid more losing. Nothing, No faith, No confidence, No regret. I am Nothing, Nothing inside me. No Emotion, No thinking, No second guessing, No more desire to become a great trader, Nothing, Zero, Blank. I am just Nothing, No Love of Trading, No adrenaline, Nothing. No more hardwork after market, No excitement, No scare of losing, No scare of profit, Nothing.
I attached too much in trading. I loved market too much...It doesn't love me, why should I loved it? Trading is nothing than an unemotional activity. I didn't care if your parent die today. Don't care if you lost your legs from accident. So why should I care? No sympathy or empathy.
I am nothing, no exist, no burden, no future, no past. No plan with the money I'll made from trading, nothing. Money is money. No happiness, No sadness, No frustration, No revenge, No attachment, Nothing...
No better, no worse, no laugh, no cry, No worries, Nothing...
I am not yet eliminating my scalp habit yet. The last two trades was the proof. Profit decent enough to make me smile. It had losses of course, but if I sticked with the plan to short as my momentum volume suggested it, definitely I will make profit. It could be more but I decided to end now. I built momentum here.
See the chart? It worked like a charm. Since there's no momentum signal to long, I just short whole day. All of it. Didn't mean the long side couldn't make money. I am not overtrade. Maximum loss today for -$245 and final profit at +$282.
Should made more than $1000 if I held a little longer. So I need to workout my scalping habit.
1. I was too aggresive trading Crude Oil. Flipping my positions just a mere fractions of minute. Worse, I don't intend to scalp my position. However, if I just sticked to the plan aka. only trade one direction, even if chose wrong direction, I still can make money on the pullback. CL pullback usually worth entire day ES range.
2. Operator error on my side. Friday losses should be at least breakeven trade.
3. Volume momentum helped me decrease my amount of trades. Follow the anchor bar direction until proven otherwise or another anchor bar emerged.
4. Too bad I only have 2 months worth of data. But the result is incredibly good. It also worked nice on TF, though I just roughly backtested it. It's not so good on soybean.
1. Big Money always start their Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) with counter trend. If not, how can they built their position at good price. They bought wholesale price when retailer won't to get out. Make sense since it's hard to buy at rising price, but easier to buy at falling price.
2. I believe it's very hard to identify the Big guy doing A/D. Unless you wanted to counter trend all the time which is quite risky on the long term.
3. After A/D, they will protect their initial position. They allowed the position to touch, but rarely allowed it to be pierced. That's why pullback and retest is commonly happened, but rarely drop thorugh the anchor bar.
4. How they protect their position is fortunately visible in the chart. If you saw fast and big volume happened, IT'S NOT THEIR FIRST A/D! They made big volume to protect their initial position. Retailer who entered after the big volume happened often have to stand the whipsaw and pullback.
5. Pullback and Retest somewhat necessary to wash away some retailer to piggyback the trade. However, most of the time anchor bar wasn't breached. So, if we stubbornly go with the big guy direction as long as the anchor's safe, soon we'll enjoy the profit.
I marked the Anchor bar to show what I mean. Below the anchor means short, and vice versa. It's not entry signal. It's my bias. Sometimes it is broken, meaning the reversal is coming. Don't be a dumb, flip the trade.
I also actively adjust the indicator setting. If it's high participant beyond ordinary volume, I will decreased the sensivity. I don't want to have lot of faked anchor bar in my chart. However, if there's no signal appeared I won't increased the sensitivity. It means no Big Money Participant. There's 3 days out of 40 days data that having no green bar. One of them is a super slow chopped. Two of them is normal.
The indicator worked bad on inventory report day. Easy way is don't trade it. But its profit potential is very lucrative. There must be ways to trade it.
In Summary, this indicator is good. It tracked the big volume. Not just big. It need to be fast. No instituitons in the world poured a big and fast volume aim for scalping. They want to build positions. It's our job to identify and piggy back the ride.
Saturday, March 5, 2011
Recent Previous Day Charts
I attached two charts. One from last two days, others from Jan 25th when there's no movement at all. I learnt control bar from Coiled Market, to make it short it's about identifying anchor bar.
I researched and reflected myself why I was doing so bad this last two days, one of the primary reason is: I trade every direction that give me signal. Worse, I used micro-wedged pattern breakout which is very dangerous on choppy market. The trade become more ugly when I had an early losses. I tended to trade every signal and cleared my losses with that single last trade. And if it didn't work, I repeated again with higher and higher target profit. In chopped market, I would be killed definitely.
I backtested with EMA and at first it quite good to filter losses. Don't trade when EMA's flat and candles just hanging around there. But after a while, I found out price liked to hanging around nowhere without EMA too. I losed hoped on EMA.
Then I found out, luckily back to Volume Spike Indicator as Cory's said. It's not likely volume spike. It's a big volume entered in a short time period. I liked to call it Volume Momentum. The logic behind this is about insitution trading, big guy trading. I found it hard to rely on the moment volume is moving fast. Not consistent and confusing, until I learnt about Anchor Bar on Austin.
Now, the reason I highlighted the candle before Green Bar because I believed that Big Guy usually accumulating their position before the big move. I marked the green bar indicator as the big move. However, the first initial big guy position is before the momentum volume. I marked it as ANCHOR BAR. And since it is their first postion, they must to defend it. As you can see from the chart, the candle was hard to penetrate the initial one. But once it's broken, it let loosed.
The strategy is only enter the direction of Anchor Bar unless it's broken or another Green Bar appeared. So if it's chopped, I only chopped half the time. And if I chopped half the time, I won't get losing week this week.
And other things is, it also tell us when the big guy is not there at all. Take a look at Jan 25th chart when there's no green bar so it definitely mean no trade. Which is a great idea since it's hard to trade on that choppiness. Others look at beside it green bar with messed around. It's inventory report and you still can trade it after some stopped out with good profit.
The downside for the strategy is you may not trade every day if the green bar wasn't there. You may miss some great opportunity. Patience is everything.
The goodside is you trade with the trend, reduce the choppiness, and filtered the likely bad day to trade.
But highly happened with the Oil Crysis like today, there'll be always green bar appeared. It's like a green light for trading. Once it appear, you can trade whole day, with half the trades, and hopefully better result.
Friday, March 4, 2011
Operator Error: -$2000 realized profit with 2 long CL contracts remain. I waited and waited with patience and pain looking the price just 10cents my stop order. Waiting more than 2 hours, tempting with double top and lower low...finally it moved up again. Then the thought coming to got out one contract near the duble top. Transmit the order, price moved lower...so I took new order without cancelling the previous one. Suddenly both of mine filled, and lastly I had -$579
This week I made nett -$88, losed all my weekly gain in one day. Today I made two undiscipline trades despite my frustration after those huge slippage. Both of them failed miserably
Actually my gross profit are $690 with commission $780...So I just working for my broker. Tired and frustrating.
The result was not so bad, but the mental suffering is greatlypainful. Working all weeks without gains plus losed it all on Friday made me mad and angry. I really categorized today is purely misfortune. Slipped out for -$370, losing temper for another -$300, and made my week in red.
The bottom losses reach another record for -$2000. I used my new mthods, it's worked good. But the timing really miserable. Next time, I'll perfect those setup.. This is not good. One day, I will drained to the sewer with my big losses.
Thursday, March 3, 2011
The losses was massive beyond my power. Played it defensively means stopped out a lot and missed the lightning moves. You played take and give all day, hoping to get the jackpot until when it moved, you missed the train. Once I got 6 cents slippage...2 or 3 cents, commonly happened.
My system not helping me avoid chopped. And besides, playing defensively is a sure way being stopped out. If price moved 15-20cents my way, it's very normal to move the SL at least to breakeven. But what happened? It touch ur breakeven 3-4times in a row. It's hard to re-entry after stopped out since price was lightning fast.
I must tweak my setup since the chopped may plain horrible. I will include the EMA, since market very likely to chop at flat EMA, so no trade inside it..unless it's make inside bar a lot.
Decide to stop trading since I already being given lucky. Managed to make green from -$1400 to +$275 means I made +$1675 max today.
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
Surprisingly, CL give great movement almost all days after inventory report. It often chopped of course but there's lot of opportunities.
I lost $355 after I made my peak at $389...Meaning I lost more than $700 on half an hour...annoying right?
Lessons I learnt that:
1. At least I can control myself not to blow out and overtrade again. What's done is done.
2. If there's already big moves on pit session, then the 02.00EST should be avoided. Especially after making decent profit.
Am I sad, of course I'm sad. I just need to check up myself if I sabotaged myself AGAIN!!! Apparently not. After making 3 profit day in a row, I had trouble sleeping. My body seemed rejected my performance. I don't know why. It looked like I was addicted to lose. Dangerous...
Somebody helped me get rid this disease in me? Anyone?
But I found it that my system worked!!!it's just I the timing sucked. If I trade all pit session, I might have nice reward. Tomorrow, I'll repeat the process. And if the crysis still intact, I'll get the profit again.
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
No, I didn't mean I have massive profit or hit the jackpot. My profit just still mediocre at best. Since Crude Oil only made clear move at 09.00am and 02.00pm EST. I also blended my trade with Soybean and Corn with great failure.
Crude Oil alone gave me $900 while grains losses around one-third of it. I profit CL these two days with little effort. Now Wednesday, it pierced the $100 mark, means bigger daily range, more participants, and most of all, higher profit potential.
I pity some of you who fading the index on Tuesday. TF down almost 30pts daily range with no significant rally. That's why fading won't work all the time..picking top/bottom won't work all the time. It may work most of the time, but u will suffer the consequence when it didn't work. I've been there, done that, repeat it again, burn again, so on.
In CL trading, no directional bias needed. Even a pullback may worth 100cents !! That's already a trend for me. So it's a perfect condition to trade oil. Dangerous and explosive ..
PS: I never floating my CL losses bigger than $100 (except for slippage), so it definitely need solid system to trade like this.