Sunday, February 27, 2011

Must Watch Film

This film is great:

Looking forward this one:

As daytrader, nothing of the two films made us more profitable. But it is useful for conversation with others, lol.

Friday, February 25, 2011

Weekly Green (I only post when I made green week, lol)

obvious money traces

Monday Holiday
This is the only day when I got out of control again. Trade against the trend and using highly leverage 6E. This is also the only day I trade Currency. Down -$287. Mistakes: Obviously overtrade.

Tuesday Recovery
One of the best day on Crude Oil, and I only took less than 40 cents. Most of the time I just watching the price up and down lucratively. Up +$345

Wednesday Continuation
CL resume its glorified movement. And another chicken play on me. This day I also get rid of my pested put options with small gains. Up +$330

Thursday Lucky
This was the toughest day of the week. First, I thought inventory days was Wednesday. So I was slipped out badly, reaching the bottom of -$1900. But luckily I made most of it back on late day. Down -$115

Friday Greedy
This time I just can't stop to stop trading. Already nice gains, wanted more, get it, wanted more, and lose more than previous gain. Balance of Fear and Greed. Funny I was too fearful at last 3 days, then too greedy and the last 2 days. Market humble me again. Up +$450

It is a tough week for me. Definitely Crude Oil helped me for the gain. i won't even bother looking those pesky EUR. CL slippage from 2 cents to 20 cents....if I took Stop Limit order, I may not got filled. If I took stop order, the slippage are horrible. Monday was holiday, no reason for trading US session..Tuesday and Wednesday, I just afraid to ride the Crude Oil. Thursday chopped all day, stopped out and slipped like crazy. If there's no slip, I might got green day on Crude Oil. Friday just lucky and greedy. Trade opening then closing. No trade between and I know I was lucky didin't trade it. A chopped messed almost all day..but If only I took the last ride..last ride after stopped out like crazy. But anyway, if I took all the messed on US session, definitely I'd give back all my profit plus more. So there's luck and there's slightly misfortune.

I trade grains on Tuesday with nice gains. And too bad I don't trade it every day. There's guaranteed profit if I took the trade, especially on Friday, it matched the Crude Oil craziness.

This week I learned lot of lessons. Not just I was back in profitable mode. But I am gaining my strength to trade. And I am proud I can survive the Crude Oil with heavy trade. Lesson was still waiting until the market is moving. Have a nice weekend you all...

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Tiring Chopped

I mostly scratch from Crude Oil trading. Should be green if I remembered it's inventory day @ 11.00 EST (I thought it's Wednesday). My profit were wiped out from one big slippage at that time. Then I just made take and give game until I was so tired and end the battle.

Should be undisicpline today since market was so fast and chopped. But I could handle myself. I trade disciplinely, looking for 100cents moved which only happened near the end of pit session. I'd like to maintain my strategy here, adding size if the move is right, cut losses early.

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Another Gain, Thanks To Dynamic Market

Market is's dynamic, trendy, and lots of opportunities. I made slightly less than yesterday. Internet was lousy, and I made clean entry on all trades. No undiscipline order. Have to make more work on profit taking though.

Crude Oil is monster. I must say if you have guts (which I don't), it's quite easy to book more than $1000 in this two days. While other mini index like ES and TF also made their rhytm. If market moved everyday like this, I will make profit every day. Guaranteed...

But it can't be happening. So just hoping tomorrow market will make another stellar movement. If not, I hoped I can manage myself.

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Profiting But Unhappy

You know what's sucks after having consequtive losses? Too afraid of letting the unrealized profit loss. CL on Tuesday really beyond my wildest dream of trading Crude Oil. Dozens of wroking setups. Grains also made limit down which is also nice opportunity. So what did I make?

First, I trade Crude Oil....out very early with only 35 cents profit, out of 240 cents opportunity. Decided to entered on next signal. But my mind infested with the existing profit, I don't want to lose it. After series of losses, I want to protect it. So I just waiting and waiting for no reason. Until Oil made two failure, I reluctantly entered. It stopped out on quite long time. Then I entered again, the price moved on my favor and I just got out mostly to recover the previous losses. Then I decided to watch. I had battle in myself..Greed telling me day like today won't happen every day and you must nail it. Fear kept warning me that I might lose what I had gain today plus more and would make bad impact for the next day. Fear won the battle but in reality Greed won the market.

Monday, February 21, 2011

No Can't Do

It's pointless against the misfortune. I saw my signal giving nice profit over and over again. After three missed opportunities, it's the time. Took the signal and stopped out once, mad...entering double time. It still moved against me around 18 ticks. Well, I decided to get out at bad spot (3 ticks the turnpoint).

Last order definitely outside a plan. It's personal for me. The damage not that bad. But if I kept going like this, I will die slowly. My timing definitely become worse and worse. Uncontrolled emotion become very bad. Impatient and fear of having losing day haunted me always every trade I made. Tilted and stalled, unworthy being and no hope. Just want to give up, but there's no turning back. I must succeed, but it's getting harder controlling myself.

This profession really worned me off. It's like looses came haunted me. Someone who can do the opposites of what I do will become the best trader in the world. Market liked to play on me. Teasing my emotions before it burned me out alive. It's like said: "Come on, it's almost bottom...bottom...loosed the Stop Losses, u stopped out too tight." Then I refused, take the stop loss and it turned back to profitable. Nect time it just blew me off the hard SL and kept luring me to countertrend every single minute.

Profitable trades also give me hard time. It stalled, teasing my entry point..then when I got out, it just launched. Very hard to do. It's like fighting against God,God Of Market.

Sunday, February 20, 2011

Want to Make Profit Every Day?

Have you ever wondered why daytraders loved to have more than one screen for their works? Is it really necessary?

I must say it is. You can profitable with one screen anyway, but it's impossible to trade lot of symbols with just one screen.

Now related to my title, every people in the world Iknow don't like to lose, especially losing money. We want to win everyday. If someone have to choose between the two system:
1. 99% winning ratio with average 1:1 Risk Reward Ratio
2. 40% winning ratio with average 1:5 Risk Reward Ratio

Let's simulate the result, for 100 trades executed, system one will produce 99 winning and 1 losing. Let's say 1 tick per trades, means it's 98 ticks profit.
The second one also 100 trades will produce 50 win 50 losses, but it may produce 140 ticks profit. The counting is 200 ticks profit minus 60 ticks losses. In the long run, the System Two will guaranteed outperformed the System One. But I definitely choose System One.

System Two indeed have superior results, but I doubt with me as executioner. I know it's hard for me to keep the game played in normal pace if I losed 5 times in a row. Is it possible for system two? It will happened definitely. But on System One, you may have piece of mind trading it. It's almost a sure winning trade on System One.

Now even though I doubt there's kind of system like that in this universe, both of the system, I wanted to have higher winning probability since it won't ruin my mental state too much.

Now what's the connection with winning ratio? Related to more screen, means more symbol. More symbol, more signals appeared. Let's take a math. I will say 70% winning ratio with 1:1 RR is achievable. Now let's say there're average 5 signal per symbol per day. If you trade one symbol, you can have losing day sometime. On average everyday you have 3 winning 2 losing. But how bout if you trade 5 symbol? It means 25 signal with average 17 winning and 8 losing. Is it higher chance to make profit every day?

So I shared one way to make profits every day, by trading more symbols than one. The downside is, there's no eternal system. You also need more works to backtest more symbols.
Someday it stopped working and you have to tweak or find a better one. The good side is you can make profit every day. The day you won't make profit is two: you broke discipline or black swan even happened.

But the flawless execution is more difficult on system two.

Saturday, February 19, 2011

New Plan

I planned to go back to currency. I developed this low risk system this weekend and like to test it soon.

Some of you know may cynically hate my change of plan all the time. Me too, but I have no choice. I really don't have good radar about the trend, go with the trend, etc. So this system will prevent me trading against the trend. I might get chopped on sideways or selling the low, buying the top but it won't be so terrible since most of my SL would be less than 10 ticks.

The best part of my new system is there's signal for reversal, not just breakout. As long as it's still with the trend, I'll counter-trend the smaller time frame. That's right, I use smaller and longer time frame. Not actually time frame, it's range and tick chart. With this strategy, at least I could do better on chopped market.

This system IMO only worked on currency, not suitable for explosive symbol like Crude Oil. I also researching the soybean, have a good prospect with part of the system. I'll update further later...

Friday, February 18, 2011


Thursday I trade from 09.00EST and got chopped severely. If I start at 10.00EST. High chance I might survive the slaughter.

Friday I was late, start trading crude 10.00EST and got chopped quite severely. If I start at 09.00EST I sure will survive the slaughter. Till the market moved I already drew big hole and can't stand the heat. Another bias prevent me for shorting the crude. Bias can give you two bad things: Big Losses and Missing profit.

Friday losses not that bad, around 11% of Thursday losses. I kept my cool and discipline. The only mistakes I made is my mental was not strong enough to resume trading after 5 full Stop Losses, lot of par, and only one small profit. My system worked of course, at 09.00 EST and after 12.00 EST. 3 hours between was a massacre.

Haw faith beats me up and down and how I hate it. But I won't give up. I will fight till my last blood dripped in my vein. Of course there's time I was so frustration and want to end my life. But if I think of something. There's lot of people out there have worse luck than me. No time to complain, more time to work. This 3 days US holiday will kept me busy. If I must working harder than regular guy, so be it. If I had to tear my eyes in front of monitor, I'll do it. When the time come, I'll remember this hard days as past, unforgetable memories.

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Maximum Pain From Crude

Thursday is the greatest losses I made at 2011, lol.
I followed my rule, but not my Money Management.
four mistakes I made:

1. Still trade the March Contract. Actually the April had one workable signal. But I took the March which is none signal workin at all.
2. Took early trade, costs me four SL.
3. Overtrade again, double my contract to cover losses, bad idea..i was chopped to death with double the losses.
4.Not waitin my longer TF signal. There's no confirmation for my longer TF.

Followed those four rules actually made small losses, or even no trade at all. Costly experience I made so far.

I am on the time where other people should suicide right now lol.. But for's a really heavy bad luck. Fully Trade on Wrong Day.

Here's what I do:
1. Backthrough my research again.
2. Fully sticked with all my rules, even it means no trading at all.
3. And this is the most important of all, STOPPED TRADING AFTER 5 LOSSES IN A ROW!!
4. Since number three is initiated, it means overtrade is never happened.

The execution and the plan really different for me. This is what separates best trader and others. I have working hard making this CL be honest, it's the best system I have ever created. I am so confidence with it. But beware, missed little precision like today, can blew out my account. Adding the bad luck, if I trade like this on yesterday market, I will make money definitely. Hell if market just doing like yesterday every single day, I will profitable every single day. But that's not gonna happened.

Implemented all the four rules above in today's death Crude Oil Market should result small losses or even small profit.
--- I was died fighting the trend get up multiple times in my life
--- I was chopped to pieces on chopped market multiple times too
--- I was died fighting the chopped market also

It should be time for me to jump off the building, end my life...after almost 4 years of trading, there's no progress at all. It's even a degradation my self-pride, my confidence, everything. Looked at this way.. Most of time entered on the wrong time like today, or I was too afraid to trade and give back my profit like yesterday.

I was like unsyncrhonized with the Universe. Everything I do, it'll reject. This is it, the lowest low of my life. It couldn't be gettin any lower than this. I experienced hell from day trading. I worked hard 12 hours a day, researching and trading. I worked on weekend. But nothing come in fruition. I may not the worst bad-luck person in the world. But I felt like all my hardwork evaporated in vain. Building a system+bad execution = Disaster.

If I knew this will happened to me, I would never trading at the first place. Since October 2010, my quality of life down to hell-hole. This was the deepest, darkest, and most painful.

Is there a way to cleansing my mind and my soul from this deadly game?

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Single ZS

Only took 3 cents ZS and watched the CL. Planned to trade CL on first failure but none happened. So just watched the potential profit without me. Anyway, profit is profit.

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Capital Preservation

Here I am, ready to trade Crude Oil. Made Two Big Mistakes early:

1. Trade before pit session, actually it's only 3 min early but the impact was disastrous.

Early broadening wedge really killed my account very deadly. This kind of volatility actually might start of trending. I trade 3min just before the bell and the impact was horrible. Four Stops Out In A Row just 4 minutes span.

2. Impulsive Profit Taking as I was down quite big.

This mistakes really made me mad. I just took $400-ish losses and can't stand the heat, so I got out without warning. The price soared for 80+cents which is more than enough to cover my losses and ending the day. But I just took another signal that just mounting my Stop Loss to almost $1000!!!

Then I took 2 contracts on third signal ( the first two was failure) and lucky enough I could reduce losses. Another SL and Stopped Profit, and finally I got out on par on everything. ZS also helped me with additional profit.

So, I just knew crude can give me +60cents more profit today. But since I lost alot early, my objective was just Capital Preservation. Also I already missed one wave, already riding wave two, high chance I will be killed in wave 3.

In summary, Crude Oil was as usual, great trades. It's not very smooth, but really profitable on my system. In fact, there's only 2 days I backtested that quite dangerous in 2011. That's only 7% overall day to trade crude. In fact those two days also giving nice scalping profit if u're lucky enough.

I quite satisfied with my crude oil trades. Gaining my knowledge there like pullback followed with lower high. Also my ZS definitely strict to my system, it's profitable. No need to guess where the market went.

Just go to my coiledmarket link right on my blogs if you wanna know the Crude Oil System. It's workin like magic. Some guys won't have losing week in last 11 month trading it exclusively with averaging $6000 per contract per month!!!That's 200% from initial margin monthly. I just can't believe it's still work in wonder. Backtesting it over 2011 and it worked flawlessly. If I don't have my operation error today and yesterday(I was blown through my entry order), $400 each day is very reachable.

Tomorrow will be another day trading crude. Satisified with this symbol, and likely I will exclusively trading it.

ps: I had modified my system and it's just better, earlier signal, less chopped, just nice, the downside was wider stop loss. let's see how's the system worked tomorrow.

Monday, February 14, 2011

A Great Moments with The Wrong Action

The undiscipline behaviour on me really killed me. Sometimes I just want having quick bucks and it backfired me.

Like today's chronology:
I was trade Crude Oil with heavy discipline and I was looking for one shot $500-$1000. Chopped around but with proper trades management, I was able to breakeven. The suddenly my buy order won't get filled and unconsciously took the higher price. I was realized it's too dangerous so I got out and managed to breakeven on crude. I was so angry because I just missed $300-$400 at least at two opportunities, while my account just slightly in red. The trades was just slammed back, ate me on par or little profit. That's should be fine IF my last trade was filled and I'll definitely booked $500, or at least $300. After missed the chain reaction, I wass off to grains.

I planned to bucked quick profit from grains. In fact the grains were not following anyone. Crude Soared, No affect. Eminis up, no effect. It just went down!! I ate my Stop Losses stubbornly kept longing and finally I gave up. Afraid of mounting losses and felt so misfortune today just stopped me from trading.

The only mistakes I made today was laziness, looking for quick money from a feeling. I was so sure the grains at least going up a bit. But that's not happening. If I kept trading I might stopped more from Crude Oil. My system is like a chain-reaction method. U trade from the beginning, do best to survive from chopped, and when there's directon 50cents-100cents, stopped trading and have a nice day. So if I stopped trading, the links is broken. There's okay to start again if lucky enough after you leave there's only chopped. But I leaved it and there's two major moves happened. If I stayed in the trade, I definitely already booked profit and end the day for crude.
But since I started the new chain reaction mostly on chopped mode, chances are I might get chopped severely enough until closing bell. It's very important to stop trading after gaining big moves. High chances the market will chopped around, like trading 101, trending, consolidation.trending, so on. This bugger very hard to identify. Actually almost every single trading there's consoliation. But somehow, the trending that make good money.

Strategy for tomorrow, I will keep the chain reaction, but with more tighter profit target. Targeting 20-40cents on early trades, taking profit early if chopped early, and try to ride the wave if I had green or slight red early trading result. This strategy should do well today, sigh if I just not changing the Stop Orde to Stop Limit, today's story will be different.

My losses affect me.

I had discipline issue over and over again. I long soybeans on opening just to bust out very hard. Market rallied and I think it will followed like usual. Well no, the market just killed me in brief movement. Then I looked for long and long again. Until market stopped moving and I just losed my willing to trade. It's decent losses, and I just too scared continued and digging deeper hole on it.

Is it ok to stopped trading because afraid of can't control oneself?

Trade only with money that you can Afford To Lose...BullS**t!!!

Yes, one thing. I seriously dislike it when I hear people say that
they’ve been taught they should trade only with money that they can afford to lose. I might be the only guy saying this out there, but I seriously believe that that phrase is enormously damaging because it teaches people that the money they’re using to trade is not significant enough to be protected. The first and last and most important thing is that I’m a defensive trader. So I feel that there is no excuse for losing the entire amount of trading capital, meaning if that’s money that people can afford to lose, then I’d rather have them give it to me and I can take them to the movies and we can take a long walk on the beach, hang out together, and we still have something to show for it later. But it is not money that people can afford to lose. It represents somebody’s financial future. We would never move into a house that we could afford to have burn down. We would never buy a car and only buy it if we could afford to have it smashed into a semi-truck. But we regularly open our trading accounts with money that we say we can afford to lose, and so it’s as if we’re from the beginning saying: “Well, this money wasn’t very important to me.” I think to certain degree that the money that we’re entrusted with to trade is sacred money that not only represents the amount that’s in the account today, it represents what it could be later on in life—the quality of life that it could provide for someone. So it’s much more important than just money that someone can afford to lose.

Millioanaire Traders - How Everyday People Are Beating Wall Street p.73

Friday, February 11, 2011

Crude Oil Result

As expected, the Crude Trading was red. But the red was not very damaging. Less than $300.

I took every single damn signal out there. Beofre news from Egypt coming, I made lot of chops. Long, short, long short.... took every signal with dead brain. News come, my last long position stopped out, I took two contracts. Put the first contract breakeven, and volatility eat me out with 1 ticks. I ride the downside and suddenly it moved back up and eat my last pos on par. If the two contracts survived I might have nice profit around $500 from Crude Oil.

Then after the aftermath, choped around again until got the downride. And it's not far enough to cover my losses.

My method was depend on good luck trade. If you take the right signal, u're good. But if u take the wrong signal, chain reaction happened. Massive Stopped out. Should work on this one at weekend.

The good thing is, I trade with no fear of chopped out a lot Friday.

After Almost One Week

Well, my trading result was not improve.

In fact it's become worse.

Now, it's affecting my psychologycal condition....

After one week of reflection, here's what I got. Actually it's always the same old wisdom but I will reflect this:

1. Analysis is merely futile. Before trading, I always had a mind what the market will be today. At first it's just about choppy or trending. But further more, it's become a bias. Then bias will affect my trading, whether it's undisciplined or missed opportunities.

2. Reasons behind moving price is also useless. Market will do whatever it will do. Information will be first known by Big Boy. Knowing an expired information will be harmful to trading.

3. Forget about picking top/bottom. It's worked sometimes. Bunt when it's not working, it will triple the pain than the joy of working.

4. DO NOT AFRAID OF CHOPPY MARKET. This is my greatest/biggest weakness on trading. On chopped market, I can't sustained the disciplined and pace. That's why I will do my best to avoid this kind of market. I was trashed by chopped oil, then I am afraid trading it again. The scared actually double with my action to overtrade. Why am I overtrade? Because I don't want to lose.

5. Stop Trading After Little Profit, Resume Trading After Consequtive Losses.
My downfall. I am afraid of giving back the profit to market. However, if I was losing, I will keep trading to get back my losses. This is ridicilous. I losed if the market was chopped. Chopped may continue until market close. The losses usually mounted. Meanwhile, I missed opportunities on good market, when they give 3-4 good swing. I am not there.

The three points above I used to have it. While now, after gaining more experience with the market, these points was gone. My subconscious mind kept giving me bias, or a bias may not only make you undiscipline, but also make you missed opportunities.

I really want to trade Crude Oil, I really do. But afraid of losing shadowed me. I can't stand stopped out 6 times in a row (-$600) losses before having a 60 cent movement to breakeven. This is not what I'm looking for trading. Another time, I don't want to enter it on first signal and it moved on the first try. Next time after the second failure, I entered with high hopes og higher probabilities, it's just stopped me ten times more.

I used to have great time on Crude Oil. I trade it, stopped 3-4 times, double the contract, breakeven or make profit. Someday it worked on first attempt and I'm done. But today's Crude Oil was strange for me. I can chopped dozens of time until market closed. But it often moved furiously. If I missed the trade, the I will chopped to death. That happen very often.

So yes, this Friday, I will trade Crude Oil. I don't care the result, I will trade it with my system. Don't care if it stopped me out 10 times, I just quit for the day.

Monday, February 7, 2011

The Hard Truth

The Hard Truth is I cannot maintain my mental state consistently. Should be a profit day with my methods, it's become drawdown day.

Trading should be survival on bad market, profiting on good market. Monday was good market, and I blew it.

I'll stop posting for indefinite time. It's not like I don't want to trade because of bad days. It's because maybe stopped blogging for a while may clarity my mind and I become consistent again.

Monday : Heavy Losses

Well, I attempted to act positive here. Actually I was rather mad with the market. With e-mini index rallied, how come all commodity like grains and oil fell like a brick? So I just waiting signal for long. Nothing suceed.

Anyway, today I was dissapointed with myself. I was disciplined and started with stopped out at exact ticks twice. Suddenly my killing spree persona broke out. I long every jiggle out there. Of course, there's no success.

On chopped market, I was bad. On trending market I was worse. I should never had a bias, on everything. A bias not just about directions. Also about choppy or trending. I had a bias that grains might chopped since E-Mini index rallied hard and Grains just wiggle around.

Today should be at least a green day. There's clear trends on every market. NQ up, Crude down, Grains down. How come I made big deposits today?

My bad habit is repeated over and over again. It's like I have vengeance with the market. It doesn't have to be like this. Should never trade crude oil today, no big volume. And then there's also ZERO Corelation between E-mini and Grains.

False moved start with the NQ: I actually chopped out three times, last stopped at the exact ticks. Cool Right? Then I gave up early while last trades should make a great gains (10 pts minimum)

I long Crude Oil, still disciplined. I got out very early. Since I thought my setup didn't appear, this was a bonus trade. Fine.

Waited for grains. also very disciplined. Buy, stopped, accident buy, stopped 1.75 pts....Short, stopped at exact tick, again. Buy, stopped out loosed and got out with 3 ticks more. Last short I managed to scratch. I mean, who dared to hold short with the E-mini this strong? I lookin for long.

Long story short, all my long was failed (d'uh) and this is when I got emotional and long almost every new low...sigh. Losses mounting and I can't stop until market closed. Result: loss almost $1000.

I was green int his profession. Very green. Experience actually not helping. It killing me. Expensive fee comin over and over again. This is not trading. This is misfortune all the way.

Wonder how I can be a successful trader if it happened all the time? There's no end with this cycle. You know where's my position in the cycle now? I was afraid to lose so I made little profit day by day. So little that my weekly profit easily wiped out with 4 consequtive Stop Losses. After my little profit, then come the contribution day. It's over and over again. Tired of this cycle.

Everything I did was plain wrong. Should never trade Crude Oil since it may tend to chop all day long (rarely). When it happened, prepares to lose $1000. Always stopped out 3 consequtive times on NQ since the 1st Day of NQ trading!!, then wrong time on grains, right time with wrong act. Wrong timing with EUR, always expecting losses with this symbol.

I was tired of everything. Lesson I learned was always be forgotten after lookin at the price. Impulsive trades plus bias always haunt me.

I ran out of profitable idea. Last Monday and Tuesday I was lost. But it's becaouse of chopped market. I can accept that. Today's it's trending. And I had bigger lost. Quit fighting the trends.

Plan for tomorrow:
1. No TRADES ON CRUDE OIL, unless there's green light on volume. This buggers really trapped my psychology. Especially Crude Oil, very2 tempting to overtrade.
2. Trade NQ after 10.00 EST. Always have lot of losses because of early chopped. 3. Also trading late on grains. Last 5 days there's almost no early surged. It's useless to trade on opening.
4. Currency? I'll trade it starting on London session.

There you go, hope it works...

Hate Sideways Market

It's not because of less profit potential, or

hard to make profit. Oppositely, this market is easy for a scalper, and also amateur who liked cut profit short, let losses run, averaging down, and so on. I just don't like this kind of market because of the psychological trap. I salute to every traders out there who can swift instantly from fading to breakout mode.

This is the hardest part for me to change. Imagine if you glued at the screen for hours, making little profit multiple times from fading, scaling down, scalping, at slow movement....suddenly the market breakout. I bet it's very hard to change to breakout mode, in fact I kept fading it until realized our profit depleted and gone. It's happened mostly subconscious. Especially if you do it almost every day. It's common psychology, not accepting the change. It's hard to accept the change, even if you want it. It's tied with your habit, and habit don't like change. Imagine if you drive a car on the left seat, suddenly the steer on the right side....awkward? Unfortunately, market tend to change habit drastically, from slow to fast and slow again, and so on.

For me, I admit I can't change that fast. Sometimes I frustrating and did the fading. Picking top/bottom. But in the end, it ended horibble. Imagine if you are fading, then suddenly market make a breakout, you change to breakout then market actually just faking. Are you frustrated? For me yes. So I just sticking to breakout pattern, no fade or fake for me. If there's chopped or slow, no trades for me. Though it's hard to identify. Picking the top/botom even with small Stop Loss just won't do good. That's why I kept looking for trending market. Not chopped market like ES, or trade EUR outside US session. Also I don't like take 10ticks there, 15 ticks there, -10 ticks. That's tiring, and on chopped market, it's hell cause profit come from fading mostly.

Like chart above, EUR make 60 ticks range hi-lo, what will I do? I just wait till US Session and trade it. Actually I like it if EUR doin like this. Imagine if EUR already moved 200 ticks before US session, what's left?

Thursday, February 3, 2011

Green Snail on CNY Day

ZS was disappointing in the past 4 days. Slow and Chopped. The cycle was too fast. I am not having too much opportunity to gain profit from it. I was really gambling today. Short at opening, moved my favor max $150, then stopped me out on par. Next short I just scalp 3 ticks and happy since it was not very solid signal.

ZC also chopped much, but I think it's better since the swing won't Stop me out too often. Today I missed the good spot because looking for better entry.

My new candidate NQ was doing quite well so far. Though my SL was super tight, I still can get small ransom from it. The key is getting the major wave, take profit, end of trade.

I had new filter for Crude Oil. It's more about volume. Today I should trade it but too busy with Soybean. And the signal not so good either. It chopped around 3-4 times before it moved.

Then only consistent movement IMO come from EUR or GBP. It sucked sometimes but there's enough room for redemption. Today just scratch short 9 ticks which soon become 60 big sweet profit, sigh.

Nett $186 today, as I just pretty scalp everything, missed the trades, and so on. How much opportunity I missed worth thousands of potential $$$ profit these days. And it's in quiet market.

Seriously, my profit was so small that it's just like I was playin around. I just tweaking my winning ratio and not my Risk Reward. It's not workin in the long run. My subconscious mind tellin me to stay low in this slow pesky market these days. I Need Fierce Market, when every amateur got out scared, that's the time I'll shine.

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Trades Before Chinese New Year

Slight profit today, played ZS,7E, and NQ. All results $104 profits.
EUR moved very slow and chopped. No surging move from Beans, NQ just followed the ES chopping around.

I planned to trade Crude, but there's lack of volume. Not very confidence. It's good enough though.

Seemed CNY effect were going to US market. Who's got the money now? :)

Happy Chinese New Year to All of You!!! May prosper be with you (and me) in the year 2011

When To Trade

I am not afraid of getting Stopped Out. It's normal in this profession. What's I am afraid is stopped out and not having chance to get it back and make profit. Most people thinks that if we can master one or two instrument, we can live forever. I surely believe every market has its own character. But can the character change? Everything in market is possible. I am talkin about day trading here.

I am purely believe if you can identified early warning of trending market or not, voaltile or not, no matter the directions, you can be rich in the market. Just trade the trendy day, avoid the chopped day, voila...Less stress, more time to enjoy life. We don't need to trade every wiggle and tails on chart. Just catch the sign of decent movement warning, ride with it and all's good.

Which one do you prefer, mastering the market directions 5-6 ticks move or master of identifying the early trend (don't know) the directions, just knowing it's gonna explode for 50-100 ticks move. The first one, you can get solid 5 ticks per day and still having risk blowing out because wrong reading. Second, you can stopped out 5-6 times and yet book a solid 10-20 ticks profit at minimum.

Just my thought. I am happy if I can booked profit every single day. Who doesn't? Is it possible? It's possible, but it's hard as hell to do it. The dillema of trading for a living. You have to trade regardless the market condition.

A specialized trader which is focus in little instruments is indeed a great things. Like a surgeon doctor who specialized in neouron for example. Specialized and mastered the specific profession. But surprisingly, there's lot of people out there make money not specializing from exact symbol.


SMB Capital, day trading stocks in play.

For a retail side : Scott's from Bankrobber.blogspot also do the same things

They are not trying to master the one symbol, but rather mastering for the most opportunities symbol to trade. And they're doing good because like asumption: If you open a clothes stores, most likely you will doing better if you sell the popular stuffs, though you only know little bout things you sell. Rather than you know how many strings needed for the cloth, how many buttons are there inside, how much material needed, while the cloth out of date.

Of course you can make big profit specializing one symbol. I believe that. But it's difficult and no guaranteed it won't change. How about someday, your only sole instruments close for business or mutate like ER2 becoming TF? It's change characteristic.

So how about mastering to identify symbol in play? Or identify chopped or trend market? You reduced the risk to chopped out, and no matter how many symbol died, you can switch easily because there's always money flowing to another.

Just pure of my thought. Although I am not profitable yet in this profession, but this is what I believe. Filtering the chop and only trade with the dynamic. This last 2 days, I make wrong choice. If I trade on Monday's Crude, I will make money, guaranteed 101%. Because that's how my method works. Looked on EUR or 6E in today's (02/02/11) make me sick. I give my salute for those of you daytrading EUR and booked profit.

No Trade Mode = On. This is one of the filter I need.

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

2 Days Glooms

In this 2 days I lost -$547. It's not very big deal since I used to lost $2000 in one day. It's just I was so angry how fate playing on me. I am not brave enough trading Crude Oil since I chopped severely two weeks ago. I was vacuum on currency because I don't really trust myself these days. I am afraid being chopped in 9 hours non stop. My best bet was Soybean. Soybean had been very active on January and I expect same movement on February. Low and Behold, I was chopped quite nasty.

Okay, Monday... I suspect early volatility on ZS. So I put better price. And the price stormed out never looked back. Then I was chopped to pieces from 12.00 am-02.30 pm EST. If I just took the stormed price, things would be okay. Sigh.

Tuesday, I won't repeat same mistakes, I entered prematured signal afraid of missed the train. And what happened? ZS chopped around with wild swing eating my SL 6 times!!! THis time, I can even think how to breakeven from this pain. So I got out at quite good price (Of Course, not even half the losses were covered).

Good things happened on NQ, I was chopped too. But I can managed to breakeven or only slight losses. I think I will focus on NQ with a better entry of course.

I am tired of losing and losing. My mental state grew thins. I was afraid being chopped out by Crude Oil, I was afraid with now Chopped ZS. I can't trust myself on Currency. And no matter how hard I made profit, the profit will evaporate in such a quick time. Is trading were so hard or am I doing the wrong things?

I was discipined and why am I still losing? It's okay to lose when I was loosening, but this 2 days, I did my best and still nett in red. Faith playing with me, through Soybean. Now, it's dead move again. I have to find another great candidate for trading. Right now, NQ's okay. Small SL, decent swing.

If anyone can give me early warning, is it chopped or not then I will give half of my crude oil profit to him/her. Of course if it's worked :)