Thursday, December 30, 2010

2010 Reflections

2010 had been my turning point year:
For material achievemnt, it's a disaster. It's been the worst year of my life.
But for knowledge and skill achivement it's yet benn the greatest year of my life. I learnt how to trade properly, cutting losses without hesitation, and confidence to trade well.

I don't know what will become the 2011. But I know I'll prepared whatever happened. 3 years of trading journey, hope to become fruition next year.

However, I need to overcome my bad habit. Overtrade and Trading against the Trend. Also the desire to have green day every day, though it's the main reason I overtrade. If I can overcome these 2 bad habit, I fully believe I can become a good trader.

Explaining the details:
1. Currency will be my main instrument.
2. Crude Oil is very unstable. It may trending and give handsome profit, and it may stalled for the pit session eating the Stop Losses with no mercy.
3. Soybean is a good instrument suppresing my overtrade habit.
4. ES and TF, most of the time is slow chopped and untradable.

Fot all the details, I prefer currency especially EUR and GBP. It's dynamic, trending most of the day, liquid, and surprisingly more forgivable. I am not saying it's easier but it's more convenient.
So, ready for the next year and Happy New Year everyone !! Have great year coming.

Friday, December 24, 2010

Merry Christmas

Or enjoy the long weekend :)

Wednesday, December 22, 2010


Thanks to Crude Oil, I made slightly green today. EUR was the worst I've ever seen. At least in my Trading Time.

Monday, December 20, 2010

Monday ZS Only

Only trade ZS, after first faked out, suspicious the slow dull market so decided not trade ZS anymore.

Saturday, December 18, 2010

Common Fear That Trapped Trader

This is purely my opinion and based on my self-experience. There're lot of common fear in our brains that prevent us to become great trader. Most fear may be general and detailed. It may correalate with each other, and sometimes contradictory. Here we go:
1. Fear of Cutting Losses.
a. Feel terrible after Cut Loss, price get back
b. Hurt the self-dignity
c. Just don't want to loss
d. Thousands other reason

2. Fear of Riding the Profit.
a. Feel extremely awful if price get back and become losses
b. Urged to feel the comfort after taking profit
c. Emotionally can't stand the pullback even the slightest move
d. Salary mentality

3. Fear of Entering at Peak/Bottom
a. Don't want to be a sucker
b. Don't want to be wrong
c. Don't want to cut losses

4. Fear of Missing Opportunities
a. Afraid the price will leave him forever
b. Impulsive after waiting then missed the opportunity

5. Fear of Not Profitable After Full Day Hardwork Trade
a. Angry if the work didn't pay
b. Tend to overtrade

6. Fear of Scaling Up
a. Fear of ruined the previous positions
b. Fear of stopped out

7. Fear of Profit Taking too early
a. Fear of losing opportunities

8. Fear of Re-entry the positions at worse price
a. Still agonizing the previous losses
b. Fear of being wrong again
c. Don't want to be stupid

Too many fear out there tilt our power. The truth in trading to counter some of the trade:

1. Trading is all about timing and momentum. You can enter buy at price 100 and waiting for 3 hours to make price moved to 120, or you can buy at 110 and wait just 1 minutes for the price to move 120. No reason to enter the worse price. If timing is right, the worse price will become a better price.

2. Stop Losses. You need hundredth of consequtive losses to become bankrupt if you risk 1% per trades. While you only need one bad trade to wipe out all your account if you don't put Stop Losses.

3. Riding the profit, if it succeed then you're trading with the trend. If not, it may chopped or against the trend. And there's no better setup than trading with the trend.

4. Don't have to profit every day. Rather have -100,-100,+600 than +100,+100,-600. Urge of daily profit may give the second scenario.

That's it for now, hope it useful for fellow traders :)

Friday, December 17, 2010

Weekly Slight Losses

Crazy trend from EUR really save my week. Stay 1 hour longer, I could booked 200 ticks in one day! Overall 102 ticks is still a record for me.

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Chopped Till You Drop!!!

Gain $380 from currency before giving back almost all thanks to crude oil :(
This is one of the worst Timing on Crude Oil. If I used my old setup, there will be more than 8 times stopped out = $800!!! $hit man.

But never give up, I still trade Crude Oil. If I once succeed, I will still succeed. The feeling is worse than having straight losses. Sigh

Monday, December 13, 2010


Got out Soybean too fast. Should easily booked $500 profit solely from soybean in 10 minutes. Crazy price, love it :)

Friday, December 10, 2010

No Trade Outside Currency

But I' still posted it since I made 96 ticks :)
Crude Oil also made great move today. I just didn't trade it :( ZS moved 9 cent in less than 15 minutes. TF..... super lame. Everything moved very nice today.

I'm gonna share some story. My uncle wanted to become a daytrader. He's already rich man and he set $10000 for trading. After 1 year of trading. His account now around $5800. Well, it's a record since 90% of day traders (I think) blewout his first account in less than 1 year. He's very strict to stop loss. At the beginning he never used that and his account was reduced very fast. But now, although still bleeding, the rate was not so fast. Maybe around -1% per day.

The weakness from him is:
1. Very super fast to profit taking. Never give chance price to pullback. Always got out before the pullback. I told him over and over again that pullback is normal thing. But everytime price moved 5 ticks against him after the profit, he will become afraid and get ready to get out. In his career for one year of trading, he never profit more than $100 per trade. That's around 13 ticks/pips in mini lot. I can't believe that!!!
2. Trade micro lot aka M6E. This symbol always have issue. Illiquid, high spread, plus commision. It's worse than the worst bucket-shop broker out there. I trade it too sometimes, But I targeted for more than 100 ticks. Never succeed though. Average incl commision worthe the spread of 4 pips! per round. Sometimes worse. I told him that micro lot can only profitable for swing trading, 50-100 pips at minimum. But as usual, 25 ticks was his hisghest record.
3. Give up after losses. It's good thin not to over trade. But as a daytrader, 2 consequtive losses means end of day? That's very risk averse. Also sometimes after the signal failed, he won't take another signal for a while. And most of the time it's too late.
4. Have bias as expert say. Sometimes enter based on expert sayin' I did it once and losses more than 160 ticks fighting the market all day :( Never again I do it.
5. Trade with 14inch laptop only, without using mouse. It's swing trader, not a daytrader.
6. Gambler mentality. If he lose this $10000 coin, then that's all for him. What? Is it like playing at casino?

He's very quick learner. I mean, he had passion to learn something new. And I don't wnat him to give up. At least I have friend to discuss trading :)

If anyone have advice how to overcome this weakness please tell me. I also had weakness too like overtrade. But I do my best to get over it. And so far so good :) Hope I keep improving.

Thursday, December 9, 2010

Crude Oil only

I traded mostly currency, dumped the TF and watched mode for ZS and Co. So made one trade with hesitation on Crude Oil, stopped out twice, it dived $500 less in 5 minutes. But I just got 21 cent for 11 cent nett profit.

Currency now become my favorite symbol, especially EUR. It's so dynamic and I can trade with confidence. GBP used to be my darling. Now it's quite a mess. Sometimes it's good but I felt some strange feeling bout it. AUD, too tight range, rarely dynamic. But it's trending mode were crazy. Shallow pullback or slammed dropped/surged. CHF, too iliquid. It may up/down 10 ticks less than 10 second at quiet market. JPY, never watched it, erased it from my memory.

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Limiting Belief

I already made nice $320 at London Session. As I wanted to develop as a trader, I continued trading. Spotted nice chopped EUR, chopped all the way in narrow range.

Prepared 7E, stopped out. Now prepared the 6E, stopped out again. Next, flipped at -1tick, stopped out. Flipped again to short and ride the choppy dived. I saw my previous Stop order at 3240, deleted it. Then price fell further AND EAT MY 3228 ORDER!!!! WTF... I FORGOT TO DELETE IT!! Price went up fast so I got out at 3236, Now my Average Short Price become 3241 from 3256!!! I put my SL at Breakeven, prepared to lose this fight. Thankfully price never breached the spot, almost... So I rode the downfall again and got out at 3213. Not so bad :)

Prepared the commodity trading ZS, moved too fast...SL slipped 2 ticks, next stop slipped. Price soared, entered long, set to Breakeven, breached, re-entry at 1277, now my limit belief took over. Got out at 81 since that's the spot I got back my previous profit. Less than 5 minutes, it soared to 1287 for 10 cent worth $500!!!
ZW, very choppy today. Short it, moved only 2 cent suspicious and got out at par. I was right, it was choppy today.

All of my trade came from 1 contract trading. I need suggestions from all of you. Are $300-ish profit per day worth the one contract? Busy day today, decided to leave Crude Oil today. Time to rest...

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Trade Not To Lose

Today's currency was normal. Stopped out twice and then the system worked! But nothing trending, as prices just gave me 30 ticks max. Interesting story came after the Currency. Trade usual...chopped, decided not to trade it when got scratch profit.
Opening Soybean etc, looked at early downtrend. Very strong, late to get in since I had earlier profit to protect ( I know it's kind a 'illogic' to make daily profitable day). Then decided to enter ZS, and it's rudely stopped me out 3 times for six cent!!! Bye-bye my profit I accumulate for 5 hours dissaapeared in less then 30 minutes. The last signal, I took it with little hope, it dived for 5 cents, I took 4 cents. Lessen my losses.

Still up around $100, I couldn't accept it. So I waited and waited the Crude Oil. Patiently waiting for almost one hour. These boogies chopped, slam, upside down. If I did the normal system, I might down another $300 minimum. But I learnt my lesson, so Crude Oil need special treatment. I waited and waited until it took my short position at 88.85, STOPPED OUT AT THE EXACT TICK @ 88.95. That's okay, it's happened all the time. Now, down $100 for the day, kept my calm, set the short @ 88.83. Then this deadly symbol dived again AND MY SHORT WASN'T FILLED and it went 40 cents should-become-my-profit!!!! Oh I WAS VERY VERY MAD!!My patient were worthless today. Fortunately Lady Luck Came to me. I long near the recent bottom @ 88.48, got out @ 88.70 :) This entry came from luck and experience. I entered at second washout so it's pretty low risk. Should wait for another minute I may get 20 cents more. But thankful enough since price went down again in a flash for third washout or maybe resume downtrend.

So, in summary, ZS and Company was not very nice when entered near the mid day, but very lucrative at the opening. Crude Oil was very rude stopped me out and unfilled issue was really make me mad. But all forgiven. Still -$20 from the current profit but it's a relieve.
My mental state not to lose blocked my potential to make better profit. Should fix this, I need Trade to Win!

Nett : $210

Monday, December 6, 2010

Saved By Farmer

Screwed up the Currency. Trading's like chess. One wrong moved may ruin everything. Like today. If I didn't have bias, I may booked massive profit from EUR. I did everything to fight back. My trades showed it. Long-Stopped-Short-Cut Loss-Buy-Profit Taking-etc...
Then US session, I trade TF and CL for starter. Well, the TF another played with the unlimited life-CPU, no need to continue. I was down -$190 after the tireless battle. And get ready for Soybean,Corn,Wheat. I covered the deficit with ZS and ZW IN 3 MINUTES!!! That's right 3 MINUTES VS 7 HOURS from other trades.
Nett Profit : $115, i need to rest

Saturday, December 4, 2010


So many novices thing (myself included) if I knew and mastered the technique of trading, we can be profitable. So just sit down, learn the best technique in the world, mastered it, and make profit. That's what every education trading site or workshop give their 'secret' and you go on your own. Is it....?

That's only of one third true. Just knowing is not enough to win in this market. It's like learning how to drive from a manual guide or text book. Can you drive after that? Sure you can, but chances to not having accident are very slim. And then you go to simulation driving and mastered it? Can you drive after that? Sure but still there's high chance to crash. Then you got to drive real car at the trainign circuit and passed? Can you drive at the real road? Sure, but again accidentrs rate still high.

Then what's trading look like? I'd like to make some analogue here, trading is like racing, competing with other professional drivers and newbies. The road is still mistery, it may rocky, smooth, or it's dirt, wet, slippy. And worse, your sight range is limited because of fog. The road may change from smooth to wet, then smooth again, rocky. How hard is it driving like that? Fortunately, you still win even you're not top three, if you touch the finish line, at least the top half. The other half may blowout his car, crushed, and never cross the finish line. If you finish last, you still lose. So the key here is driving carefully but still with hi-speed. You took the prize from betting money the other losing half.

Too much brake may slow you down (too tight stop losses). No brake is suicide (No Stop Loss). Stop your car after nearly have an accident may save you, but make money is impossible (Stop trading after stopped out). Reducing the speed after leading means losing the position(Taking Profit Too Early). Bumpy road need different technique from smooth road.

Trading is need mental preparation, open mind, accepting the worst, and thinking two steps ahead. Before entering the trade, you should think: What should I do if it doesn't work out?

Friday, December 3, 2010

$hit Emini and Crude Oil

I was not intended to trade multiple contract. Why should I? Greater risk error, Must have quick move, fast eye, and one missed will ruin everything. But I trade to make money. Watching today's market Currency on London, Emini all the time, Crude Oil want to make me puked. I didnt' want trade Emini. It's disastrous. So what did I trade today?
1. EUR
2. GBP
3. AUD
4. ES
5. CL
6. QM
7. TF
8. ZW
9. ZC
Should stick to currency today. Notes to self: Pre-NFP may hazardous to Currency. And there's huge opportunity trading after the report for currency.
To me the best instrument to trade by far is currency. It's structured, not too fast, and respect with technical.
The worst instrument by far are Emini. Zillion pullback, Chopped dead, and it's slower than snail.
Confused about Crude Oil. It's trending sure, but nowadays there's too much pullback that made me couldn't ride the trend.
Interesting instrument with Commodities. It's so trending. Very strong. It may become my ride for the futures.
This week I made merely scratch. Chopped death TF and Crude severe my performance.
Also I made a truce with myself. EFT just made me so calm that I even trade with very little emotions.

Thursday, December 2, 2010

Multitasking Result

One of my biggest weakness (maybe most of us) is can't stand letting the profit run. That's happened on CL. My plan was taking 50cent profit but get out 27cent instead. Of course it breached mine. GBP also too early got out (it gave me 50ticks profit).

I was multitasking 2 symbol today. GBP and EUR, or CL and GBP. It gave me more objective trading. I thought I healed from trigger shy syndrome. Usually after big losses, I trade like a coward. Today, none of it. EFT worked!!! I didn't realize it but it worked.
I made around $392 before giving back $141 to the ZS market. Today's ZS was so dead..unlike yesterday. Can't expect everyday a tradeable day for beans. But the good thing is:
Today I just made $320. But I gave the best in me. Fighting the uncomfort of trading after good profit. Fighting the desire taking back my losses. That's a new me. I will keep doing everything I can to become a great trader.

Wednesday, December 1, 2010


Well, this is what happened when I have my courage to tragger trade again. Total misfortune. TF 4 times stopped out, I can tolerate that since this index sometimes untradable at all.

ZS, so stupid...flipped my last position, stopped out, and it run more almost 20 points without me. That's $1000 per contract!!!

CL, stopped out mercillessly. Should not trade before inventory. Stopped out twice, it's ok. Then after the report operation error cost me around $200. After I gave up for the day, price soared 50 cent. That's $500!!!

I used Emotional Freedom Technique (EFT) to overcome my Trigger Shy. It worked!! and this disaster happened. Sigh :(

WHY....WHY...????? Please somebody help me with this...
From this day on, I will triggered every signal until my target reached. I will target $1000 per day!!! Don't have to reach it, but definitely I will aim it. I am tired being played emotionally.

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Tuesday ZS

Got 5 cent worth $250 flew in front of my nose. Stopped out for 1 cent profit :(

Monday, November 29, 2010

Monday's TF

Today's great day to trade. Missed 8 pts TF to downside, waiting dozens of faked out until have courage to enter. 3.1 pts :)

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Why I was Busted These Days?

I want to record my thought my reflections when trading. I encountered many obstacles so much that it effect my trading consistency.

I remembered at the beginning start of July, I trade good. This month I trade most of signal without thinking of failure. Entered almost every signal appeared without slightest doubt. I put Stop Order, so when the price came to me, it's filled. Put my Stop Loss in tact and let the market decided. My winning ratio was horrible. In fact, it's only around 40% or less. I was not afraid to be wrong. I trade trade and trade. There's almost no single day without losing trade. No afraid being stopped out. Some days I just lose so big at start but in the end it kept me green. Winning ratio per day almost 100% perfect. The result was marvelous, I was on top of my performance (I think).

Come August, at first I trade good as usual. Until one day I blew out, breaking the rules against the trend. Need many days but surprisingly I recovered with quarter profit of previous month. I though nobody on earth can stop me profiting in this market.

September was the outlier month. I trade with discipline, undiscipline, everything and the result : incredible. Of course my winning ratio per trade never improved. Still around 40%-50%. I didn't care less. Every time it stopped out, I was ready for the next setup. 2,3,4 even 10 losses didn't budge my emotion. I kept trading and the result astonishing. I felt like a money magnet. Everything I touched become $$$.

October came, smacked me to earth. I trade against the market and losses big. Everytime I recovered and trade with my old setup, the market like knew my Stop Point and blasted it there. This is when my mental barrier crushed. I couldn't stand losing 10 losses in the row. In fact, I couldn't trade well after 5 losses. I was down a lot. I scared to make mistakes as it costs me more money. So I just letting dozens of opportunities walked away in front of my eyes. Just staring this price soared and if it's September, I would gladly enter those profitable trades. After watching that my edge still working without actually doing it, I collected my strength, and began to do it again. I was crushed again. Scared, missed opportuinites, Got up, Crushed, missed opportunities.

September, after started with big losses, I thought I was get overed with it. Wrong, the cycle wtill continues. Worst, after wining streak, I sabotage myself with agains the trend setup. Until now, I couldn't resist temptation to buy low, just use Micro Lot to minimize losses.

" Danger from wrong doing is always come when I don't realize it "

Lots of missing opportunities, bad trades, poor executions. I will be back in basics. But today, Bank Holiday, I still don't trade. Reading Trading In The Zone Again by Mark Douglas.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Should Avoid Crude Oil Definitely

This is madness. I can't identified wheter Crude Oil tradable or chop chop around. This was my last trade of Crude Oil. I can't stand this beast. No more crude oil for me.
I am at the edge of desperate here. Crude Oil Trading with discipline is not enough. It need luck and massive amount of capital. How can I trade these choppy beast? Sigh... sorry for being desperate here. I was good on Currencies I think. Yesterday's blowout definitely my mistakes and I can take it. But this....this...beast is killing me.
I hoped I still have courage to trade Currency. Oh God, these blowout destroyed my confidence. Afraid these losses affect my currency trade :(
Aaargh, I am very frustrating right now. I will erased all my Crude Oil Quotes, everything. Should have done it long long time ago. I can managed well without Crude Oil.
What should I do? I still have confidence in Currency. But now, I don't know what to do now. I am tired, exhausted, and feel so much failure in me.
Now I must only focus on Currencies and Currencies only. I have suitable Time (London Session = Afternoon), working multiple pairs, and longer time to trade. For the last 11 days if I kept my discipline, I had decent result. Focus only at monthly tick target. Blew out once and now in recovery mode. Today, I thought if I could trade Oil with discipline, I may get decent profit. I was wrong. Very very wrong. Poor execution, slipped entry and exit, missed signal, forget-to-cancel-order, become one big mistake in today's trade.
Hope that tomorrow I will trade with discipline and careful. Eliminate all thinking about making money. Just trade well, and the money will follow. Like I did on Currencies these days.
If I can survive in Sideways Currency Market, then I can survive in trending market. Prepare for tomorrow.
Since I won't trade other than currencies, then this blog will be un-active. Please visit my currencies blog here.

Monday, November 22, 2010

Just 1 Cent Oil Profit Monday

No worth to upload :)

Thursday, November 18, 2010

No Trade Again and Again

CL chopped, TF chopped, ZS wild...(maybe)
I was thinking about counter-signal on CL. If it said long, we short, vice versa. 5 times success with 10 cent PT

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Another No Trade Outside Currency and Little Inspiration

I watch on youtube Mind over Market, guest: Mark Douglas. There's some inspiration and maybe worth to share to all of you.

He told us about slot machine. People playing the slot machine if lost or didn't hit the jackpot won't be frustrating. Because s/he know that the outcome is random. In fact most of them know that the winning is not at his/her favor (the casino has it). They insert the coin, press the button/pull the trigger, and if it missed, they do it again. Over and over again. Interestingly, most traders don't have this slot machine mentality. If the position is failed, they may frustrating and angry. The expectation is too high. Worse, unlike the slot machine, the market may eat all of our coins in just one trade if we let it loose aka. no Stop Losses.

In fact that, unlike slot machine, trading if we do it right, the winning is in our favour. Let's say, we have the edge. Backtested it and it works. So we apllied it on market. Overtime, guaranteed, we will make profit. Of course Money Management also played in this part. Then why most traders still losses while in theory it's more profitable than the slot machine?

This idea cross my mind, why don't we treat our trades like slot machine? We prepare our coin (money that we risk per trade or Stop Losses), sitting and waiting to hit the button (click the mouse). And if it fail, well like slot machine, nothing to be angered, wait again, looking the signal, hit button again. Over and over. In today's trading especially in Forex, we can even risk $0.01 or 1 cent per trade. Cheaper than slot machine. I strongly believed that this type of mentality will make us money in the long run. If it failed let's say after 20 trades it doesn't give good outcome, we can always tweak or improve our edge to sync with current market condition. Let's say we risked $1 per trade. 20 streak losses in slot machine won't upset us. 5 losing streaks in trading definitely made us mad.

Expectation sometimes a deadly pit in trading. Me too countlessly fell into. Hope it useful :)

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

No Trade Again

My confidence lies on Currency. No TF today, saw lucrative ZS but looked at bid ask sometimes jumped 2 cent, that's $100 slippage. Too volatile, maybe later

Monday, November 15, 2010

Excuse Excuse

Not trading US session. Internet jammed at opening US session.
TF,ES,CL diving while I was busy connecting.
Then dead movement. Three of Them.

Waiting for ZS, the chart won't open and, it's also dead. Maybe alive later.

Pretty satisfied with my Currency Trade.

Friday, November 12, 2010

Friday's TF Trade

I made my decent profit from TF. Also paper-trade the ZS soybean before dancing with the farmer:)

TF moved 4 pts and I only reached 2.7 pts. Not bad since price slammed deep. The regret, I was not taking the signal to short and it moved further than 4 pts.

ZS 1st entry should be breakeven. Paper trade was way way too easy comparing to real trade. 2nd trade was a real deal. Price never moved above my SL point and 9pts from ZS surely something I can be proud of :)

All trade purely based on CM Pattern by Austin.

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Outside Currency

My nerve can't afford losses. Not in my best shaped, big losses from choppy market haunted me and stomped my heart. Result: Missed 2 times more than 40cent Crude Oil worth $800!!!
My currency trade doing pretty well so far. Tomorrow will be light to none trading.

Friday, November 5, 2010

Make A New Blog

I will used this blog as trading journal other than currency.

For my currency trade I created a new blog.

Based on business Plan, structured trading, and tidy.

No Oil Trade Today, have a nice weekend everyone :)

Thursday, November 4, 2010

Thursday Result : Definitely avoid CL for a while

Maybe I'm just pissed off missing last 2 days move of CL. Not in mental state trading Oil. Meanwhile I can afford to trade currency.
If somebody can identified CL- day or not please let me know :)

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Wednesday Result: Fed Mess

I forgot about Oil Inventory..sigh :(
Consolidation with 5th times breakout, I entered after the 3rd time faked. Suddenly remember about the inventory schedule and got out in a flash.

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Tuesday's Scalp

I think it's better called scratch, but it's still bigger than most of daily salary in my place.

6E just premature signal. It became one but failed. Then it gave short signal, another failed. I guess I'm lucky today. My another weakness: can't stand 3 hours movement of 20ticks. CL still a darling instrument. Hope my new system will prevent me to overtrade :)

CL drove another 15ticks but I'm not buyin'

Prepare for tomorrow. Today's election day just wait and see.

CL System Found!!

Found the New System. It's wedge breakout confirming with bullish candle. Do the trade starting today. Pretty unique coz I entered at the counter-trend but with trend direction. I justwant to scalp today since it's pre-election days. With this method, I definitely have to limit my trade since the signal not very often appeared. Follow the system, impossible to overtrade.

Monday, November 1, 2010

Fighting All Day

I was trading from 08.00 pm EST to 08:00 am. It's very stressful, tiring, especially on chopped market. I tend to overtrade again with par result.

Trading should be less time consuming. 12 Hours trading not resulting big profit.

Should backtested at peak time only. 7.00 am EST and 2.00 am EST

Friday, October 29, 2010

Weekend Thought: Finding the right system

Finish this week early, just watching the screen, aiding more confidence to trade.
Even with this kind of slow market, my system worked quite good. 10-20 ticks on average. There're also some nice swing for >30ticks but took more than 4 hours to develop.

Here's some of my thought about my system:
1. I Trade breakout, faked out means higher probabilities success at next breakout. It means to receive higher winning ratio, I can trade only after the first signal. If the first signal work already, then it's not my fortune.
2. Profit taking also play a good role. Profit taking earlier have better probabilities than late profit taking. Work best on choppy day, also work on trending day. No need to explain here.
3. Adjusting the Stop Loss. If I was afraid with big losses, I just waiting for a better price with still old Stop Losses intact. If I don't get filled, then it's not my fortune.
4. Watch another pair. I set 3 currencies: 6E,6B, and 6A. If one another give opposite entry, I'll wait till better confirmation. Best thing happened when three of them breakout at same direction, almost same time. The key is, not enter at the opposite direction on each currencies.
5. Backtested as far as I can go. Focus on maximum drawdown at the system. If the maximum still within reach, then I am still good to go. So far the max drawdown is -32 ticks. That's almost $400, and it's on the standard system. With the four rules, the drawdown can be minimized. With 10 ticks PT, there's still no drawdown. That's right. No negative day as far as I go, all of the three currencies.

Combine four of the rules give me incredible high winning ratio. I must say more than 80% with 1:1 Risk Reward Ratio. It's not best things for optimizing my profit, but definitely good thing for recovering my mental state.

Tips from me is working hard finding your system. The system should be adjustable from high winning ratio to risk reward ratio. I can't see both of them collide. If any of you know how to do it, let me know :) I believe to achieve better winning ratio means you must accept missing some good opportunities.

I have a dream someday, if I just don't feel to trade, I just took my high winning system then get out quickly with small profit, around $100 or so. Feeling good to have a Ca$h Machine right?

My mission is to complete backtesting all the three currencies starting from June 10 until now. I can't go further since I don't have the resource. But I think with 5 months backtested, combined with above 4 conservative rules, I'll be good to go.

This project is just temporary. Once I recovered, I'll take the next step and become a better trader, even better from my old proftable me.

Every suggestions are gladly welcome, even the cold harsh one and let me know if you enjoyed reading this posts.
Have a nice weekend :)

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Friday Result: Another Early Bird

Sorry for the bad picture.
I was on recovery mode. I know I should not be too focus in my past failure. But I'm still human. I have emotions to take care of. Massive Losses made me stall and tilt.
Trigger Shy, PT early, and Overtrade come and go.
All I do right now is to make me feel better. I feel better if I can booked consequtive winning days. I like the green day. That's also one of my pitfall to overtrade.

Back in the days where I collect around $200 - $300 per day profit. I was taking profit too early. Not to mention some overtrade sometimes, but I'm just lucky. And that month I could make significant profit and things got better after that. Then I was overtrade again, discretion trade, against the trade, things went back to zero again. Even minus. I have to stop this demon vicious cycle and move on to higher ground.

Anyway, I using the high winning ratio aka Profit Taking Early right now. I don't care if the profit is only a fraction. I need this for recovery. I backtested this system and fine-tuned it all day long. 10 ticks is reasonable for high winning ratio trade.

Like above trades, 3 of them gave at least 10ticks to reap. I missed the GBP and cut the EUR too early. But no complained since price came back again.

The only thing I believe in this proffesion is to survive long enough until I become a real trader. Trading become the subconscious mind, and become a boring routine. That's right, boring routine, a waiting and executing game. The only 2 important job for day-trader in my opinion:

1. Off Hour: Backtesting, review, and looking for new idea in the system.
2. On Hour: Execute the plan patiently and disciplinely.

Every advice and suggestion are welcome :)
Have a nice weekend everyone.

No US Session Trade Today

Market seemed quiet at the opening, suddenly BOOOM...slam down with no EUR followed.
Should be a great day to trade today, especially TF. But too busy backtesting currency with incredible result. But backtesting 2 months is not enough. Three Currencies backtested need a lot of hard work.

My system would be Bollinger Band Contraction Inside Keltner Channel, so far so good. Max drawdown = 36 ticks per currency.
Focus on the losses since profit will take care of themselves.

PS : I even not yet backtested the GBP, expect more incredible result :)

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Thursday Early Bird

Trade very early based on my system. Quite nice result. I mean, with >100ticks intraday range, there's high chance to gain profit when the range were still 20ticks. Sounds logic right?

Scott awaken me...

I was on losing streak. Seemed can learn from the mistakes.
But from today, you will see the new me. No more attached to the past.

- As the beginning, I will change the blog layout, trade with more relaxed and planned.

- No more Crude Oil as I lost my edge with this instrument.

- Backtesting the Currency Futures, find great edge.

- Become a better person :)

Thanks Scott for the advice, hope u'll still around when I was back at old me.

Ground Zero + 13 Days

Loss = $567

Very Frustrating. I was chopped out early like crazy. Every single

trade chopped out. The mistake: Not entering after the closing candle. So much price just taking at the tails. Wtf!!

My swing from AUD can't preserve the losses. I was afraid if I trade Crude Oil later may add the jeopardy on my losses.

The Bollinger+Keltner really a good setup. I just wrong applying it. Faked out zillions of time. Time to quit, there's another day :(

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Ground Zero + 12 Days

Nett : $211
It's good to become profitable again :)
Today's I trade with less mistakes.
Start with Mini EUR, got a scalp profit. Then trading 6B exactly at big news, I've got cut loss slippage more than 10 Ticks!!!! Fortunately my flipping saved me from the losses. $9 loss from GBP.
Entering 6A but not convinced by the moved, got out at just 2 ticks profit.

The Oil, somehow I trade disciplinedly. If you can see the chart, oil had been doing like Friday again. Chopped-chopped. My mistake was I didn't raised the SL to Breakeven, but I didn't have reason for doing that since price moved less than 20cents.

Afraid if Friday's disaster happened again, I wanted to give up at -$200 total losses. Another big slippage from QM happened again. So frustrated trading this tickers. Double filled CL and QM made me nervous. Lucky the price flew a bit and decide to decrease the loss by bailing out the CL.

Sentiment news came out, price moved quite erratic. But my SL still untouched and finally price moved as my favour. I was targeting the 100cents intraday trading at $82.80 price target. A little shaked up and down, my price got filled!!!

I was very happy, esepcially the price came down again after that. But whatever happened,

Here's some Bollinger Contraction Bonus.

It happened over and over again like broken tape. Too bad I didn't enter the 6B. But the rest was okay if you only target 10-20ticks.

If you have time @ 01.00 - 05.00 EST, you may find this Bollinger may become ur Ca$h machine. The trick is entering when 3 major currencies with high correlation (EUR,GBP,AUD,CHF) do the contraction at the same time. Enter the same direction after breakout, cut the losing pair and let the winner run may cover monthly bill :)

Just a little tips, trade at your own risk...

Monday, October 25, 2010

No Trade On Monday

Just going to vacation, too tired to trade, and missed nice ride from Cl :(

Friday, October 22, 2010

Thanks to All Of You Guys...

Couldn't sleep at all.
I am too deep into this trading-job. I have been in this business for 3 years. When I thought I was figuring all out (cut-loss early and disciplined entry) I still have weakness in me.

Thanks for the idea, looking forward to backtest it.

If only there's job for 1 month in my country, lol. If there's, I'll gladly take it. If I can develop the instinct where I should enter or not, that would be great. As a scalper. how many pips does ur average SL? Thanks for ur compliment :) Make my day a bit.

Definitely right about it. I took the role model from Austin. Cut loss early, let profit run. I have dramatic change after that. But somehow I went back to zero again. It's not my setup is bad. It's completely my fault. I was addicted to small losses and when it become big, I can't stop trading. I was already pay more than I can imagine :)

Yes, I always trade 1 contract. The smallest size I can get.

Quit and rest, I'll do it this weekend.

Thanks for all of your advice, wish you guys all the best. The downfall today and previous bad days were like this:
1. Not consistent on Stop for the day, I mean I could stop trading on Wednesday when things went bad. I just felt like it. Of course when I saw those last final signal I didn't take, it could take me to the breakeven or decent profit. Sigh...
2. Thursday came, I stopped out multiple times as always, until I ride the slow but direct movement. I got out on more than 50 cents and price fall another 150cent. Sigh... Two Not Too Good Days
3. Friday, I sat with a vengeance. I wanted to take score NOW. So I trade more aggresively looking for nice profit. Like heaven knows, CL price kept getting wide whipsaw and choppy. When the price were already move up in fashion, I still busy shorting the market. Sigh... I should let it go.

I thought crude oil is easy. As long as it moved more than 100cent intra day, I'll definitely make money. It moved 100cent, but I still lose money. A Big money.

Here's what I should do from this day forward:
1. FOCUSING ON CURRENCY. I BACKTESTED IT OVER THE WEEKEND LIKE CRAZY AND DIDN'T EVEN USE THE EDGE SERIOUSLY. I have this good edge currency trade, less stop loss, and so on.
2. LIMIT MY OIL TRADE, definitely only use the QM with 15 cent stop for a while. 3 Stopped out and done for the day.

Weekend Thought

I am disgusted with myself. Clearly I need to take a break from trading. The only mistakes I make is: I didn't want to have red day and it kept getting worse. Sometimes it worked, but if it isn't worked, it's very ugly. It's not like my setup was bad. It's decent for today. I just didn't want to lose. That's make me a loser.

I am so desperate right now and thinking to end my career in trading. This is probably the deepest pit I have ever entered. :(

I thought if I kept trading and trading, taking every signal, at least I'll have a green-day. But it's so wrong. My red day far surpassed my green-day. My loss was mounted. I was afraid to keep losing and losing.

Some of my downfall are:
- I am not fully disciplined on exiting the backtested strategy. Profit taking too early most of the time. Sometimes not taking profit but it's rare occasion.
- Can't stop trading if I was deeply in red. That's make me more red most of the time. Like today, I overtrade :(

- Not disciplined = Disaster
- Disciplined = Sometimes also loss
- Disciplined and still loss = Tend to overtrade

Desperately need advice here, almost broken down :(

Ground Zero + 11 Days

I should retired on CL. Chopped out massively and didn't even know what happened. Meanwhile the currency did a good job this week. Lot of work to do.

I think the most downside on me is I cannot take the red day. I need to take the red-day, like just little loss-day. If somebody have advice please let me know :)

Bollinger Squeeze Again!!

I trade long on AUD and stopped out, flip to short. Price moved around 10pips, decided to raise my SL, eaten at the exact tick before it went down another 30ticks!! :(

Saw the nice Bollinger Squeeze on EUR but didn't enter since there'll be big news ahead. Choose to short GBP instead, chopped a bit, and decided to exit at nice 23ticks though it kept going down like crazy!

I was not fully exploiting this volatile market, still lot of things to fix :(

Thursday, October 21, 2010

Ground Zero + 10 Days

Never Give Up, Stay On Track.

Currency gave a solid profit from GBP. I entered based on Bollinger contraction and Wedge Pattern. Exit 30 ticks too early, but still for me 30 ticks is quite big.

Meanwhile, I stood by on Crude Oil. Entered cautiously with QM, stopped out as expected, quite a while I entered the CL since I was stopped out strangely by QM.

This is one of tiresome fighting. I short, stopped out, raise/lower the Stop Loss, eaten. The most annoying thing when my 81.90 long eaten by merely 3 ticks before flying up again. Then I long 1 CL not based on system, another 1 based on CL at the price near the peak. Of Course I exit partially, then scaling up again on discretion trade, exit partially again.

I was offered to breakeven (Crude Trade) in a glimpse, didn't take it and another break even. Result -$20 after gaining $140 on Currency.

Already wanted to give up, I saw a crisp short pattern forming, What the Hell, entered on QM again. Stopped out again, re-enter QM at the same price again. Price broke down very slowly, stall on 82.00 - 82.15. Down again to 81.68, it retraced back threatened my 10cent profit SL within only 2 tick before it came down. Cover @ 81.60 and the Oil went down to 80-ish :(
Nett : +$196

Another great price on oil, another mediocre result in me.Whyyyyy????

Bollinger Part II

Range Bar = 5 for AUD & 8 for GBP and EUR
CCI indicator = 14
Bollinger Band = 15
Keltner Channel = 15

CCI indicator used for filtering the breakout. Not worked every time but enhance winning ratio a little bit. CCI usage : 100 to -100.
Using Range Bar to fixate the Stop Loss and also frequent the Band Contraction.

Now using the range bar if used correctly may avoid the long consolidation. Let's say if price move around 15pips in 3 hours, the time chart surely gave you bollinger band contraction and also lot of faked. But with range bar, this 15 pips movement may give you less candles and slim change to create bollinger contraction.

I found out using this technique 10pips are flying all over the place. You could easily booked 50 pips in 6 hours if you have fast hand and brain!!

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Keltner Channel + Bollinger Bands

These setup is very powerful. Whenever the Bolinger Band contract inside the Keltner, prepared for explosion. Happened all the time :)

Ground Zero + 9 Days

I thought I was recovered. I was wrong. I am afraid this losses follow through the next day.

My 6A trade were based on system. But I just got lucky, covered too early near the bottom.
Then I just trade micro, EUR and AUD, based purely on discretion trade. It's eat my previous profit, know how many pips I lost with micro? More than 100pips combined!!!

Then disaster came from Crude Oil. I was looking for after inventory setup. None, then there's signal. I set my QM, stopped out multiple times, upgrade to CL and another stopped out. It's just too choppy. Time went by, approach the lunch break. I was not specialized trading on mid-day, so I quit for the day. Big losses as I recall, but that's it. I could go on but there's no confidence left watching the CL just chopped around eating all Stop Losses.

My mistakes for today:
1. Playing recklessly with micro account. Like gambling with small changes, mounted into decent losses.
2. Not waiting the longer setup on CL. This time the minute chart. If only I followed the rules, I may just get -$75,-$25, and a par. The reason I break rules is because I didn't want to miss opportunity. But there's no opportunity. When days like this come, the only thing I should do is survive.
3. I am not sure if I could trade pre-inventory report since last 2 weeks CL gave very good money in it.

If only I trade like usual on morning, I should have a good swing, at least 50cents profit :( Those damn inventory report kept me away from CL darling before the report came.

And I still survive....
Fight for another day...

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Personality Issue

We have all different personalities. My trading buddies told me that his weakness came from the feeling of overbought or oversold market. He is afraid of entering the trade if the price already moved too far (In His Opinion). If he have an upside bias, he want to buy at the lowest price possible and vice versa. If he had those position, he may ride it only small ticks before he bailed out. Already pick the top/bottom but exit very early.

My other former trading buddy also like to enter at perfect price and hold into it until he burned out. If he missed the trade, he convinced himself that actually he want to take it there but it's too late. Emotional pittfall and delusional trade.

Mine have problem with not letting the day-loss (not loss per trade)until it's too deep to comeback for the day. Sometimes risking far too many than the expected outcome. Profit taking too early also one of my pitfall.

We all have our own demon to conquer.

Ground Zero + 8 Days

Another solid performance from Keltner and Bollinger Tag Team.
QM also gave decent result.

However, I was not quite discipline on profit taking. Both GBP and AUD prematurely out.

Monday, October 18, 2010

Monday Result: Ground Zero + 7 Days

I can't believe what I was doing. Whipsawed by QM and CL, persistent to enter, already loss -$1100, and managed to breakeven with accumulated three contract. I didn't have guts as I was crushed early by CL. Almost give up on Loss $1000 but can't.

Bad trade on currency also. My system worked flawlessly on AUD and GBP. And I just took 10pips instead of 100pips offered.

I can't believe what CL did to me..again, early whipsawed was very rare happened. I thought there's gonna be OPEC meeting or something.

But I found out something interesting out of this mess. I previously used Tick Chart instead of Time Chart for CL. And today, I used solely on Time Chart. Interesting is TIme Chart gave 2 S/R and Tick Chart only 1. And which one worked better? The Tick Chart!!!

I think that which one gave less signal is more reliable. Next day I would took the lesser signal whether it's Tick or Time :)

Oh, about those Ground Zero title, I will tell it when the time come.

Friday, October 15, 2010

Weekend Thought

My mistakes as a trade is : Not do the consistent job and did discretion trade.

For the past weeks, I made a discretion trade. I thought if I placed a tight Stop Loss, I'll be fine. I was wrong. At the beginning, I made a decent profit from this method, Stopped out, re-enter, and make profit. Until I was overconfidence and against the trend violently. I thought I placed Stop Loss and I'll be all right. No it's not. I was stopped out dozens of time until I can't afford to lose anymore. I was tilt, my trading performance dropped to the lowest level in my life. Scared, Deppresed, and frustated.

Until I realized one thing, Consistency. I rewind my memory backwards when I had losses because of the system, it's not even a quarter of my biggest losses in one day. I do remember when I was taking the trade solely based on system, my profit taking was bad, and I still have quite good month. I thought I was advancing as a trader, but I was wrong again. I am just an over-confidence brat who just learn to trade.

It's so many temptations from trading, Each person have different evil.
1. Like to fight the trend, want to become a hot-shot hero to pick the top/bottom of the market.
2. Hate to cut losses, averaging down until one day dried up capital.
3. Taking profit too early, thought that profit taking won't make us broke.
4. Hold profit position too long until it went back and become a loss.
5. Too tension of losing money and cut losses too early.
6. Don't even know what's make him/her fail on trade.
7. Worst, blame market for the losses.

My Weakness:
1. Tempted to enter the trade without signal, then re-entry infinite time not realizing against the trend.
2. Sometimes Stop Loss too tight.
3. Hate to have a losing day. Attempt to winning back the losing trade and sometimes end up worse.
4. Need a long time to recover from big losses.

My Strength:
1. Already familiar getting stopped out. Disciplined on Cut Losses early.
2. Strong at new ideas and backtesting the system.
3. Have a decent patience for waiting to setup to appear.
4. Can hold my horse of stopped trading after winning.
5. Can modify lot of system, change it from high winning ratio or better risk-reward ratio.

Neutral ability:
- Not entering every trade, looking for some fundamental aspect especially on Currency.

I'd like trading forex becaouse of diversification. Win on EUR, lose on GBP, par on AUD, if the result was green, I'm fine. I thought if I can entered all of the pair, I may have everyday's profit. I have a character to like profit every day even it's small. High winning ratio is my objective.

To accomplish that, contradictory I need to Stop Loss early, raising the Risk-Reward Ratio. I need to get back to July's performance. There're very nice performance of winnig streak days. Start to backtesting the Currency again, this time with 3 currencies :)

Friday Result Chopped2 All The Way

Every breakout followed by 10tick retracement. Suspect a Stop-Loss Hunting
QM was straight profiting. Have to use QM since my capital won't allowed me stopped out dozens of time.

Thursday, October 14, 2010

Thursday Result

Riding 40 pips of GBP with only taking 4 pips :(

Thanks for Austin and his free-money from Oil after inventory report. Quite surprised with the active trending pre-inventory report, but 50 cent ticks was a must do :)

Gradually back to my previous-profit machine self, and prepare for tomorrow's fight.

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Wednesday Result

Oil so quiet early, taking a scalp and the market took off.

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

QM Sucked!!! Tuesday Result

2 Ticks slippage not just once but, 3 times is not a funny things. Time to get rid of this stupid Tickers and back to all-glory CL

Monday, October 11, 2010

Monday Result

Note To Self : Never Trade Currency On Bank Holiday

Saturday, October 9, 2010

Too Many System Trading

I found this system accidentally. The instrument is GBP Futures, The number are profit or loss if minus. Just backtesting couple of days. It's winning probability is very high with decent Risk-Reward Ratio.

Friday, October 8, 2010

Super Faked And Chopped on CL

Never seen CL's been so Choppy Like This...10 Faked and still counting!!!!!! My God, lucky I was faked 4 times. Just avoid trade oil After Lunch.

If I entered all signal appeared, I will be dead in no time. $1000 loss!!! No counting if I added position!!!

This lesson costs around $300. No more Crude Light for a while

Friday Result : Note to Self

I was very disciplined. The problem was, I entered on chart after the news. Having great system is not enough. Need quick execution too.

I always had fixed SL with discretionary PT. That's become the failure. There're technique for Profit Taking and now I am honing my skill.

Thursday, October 7, 2010

Extreme Change

I'll retired from trading Emini and Commodity. I will trade primarily on Forex. Oanda will be my broker. I can't trading with flexibility with IB. It need large amount of money to trade.

In the past months I already research about Forex Trading. The result was fascinating. Easy and Unstressful. I can risk any amount I want. Even $1 per trade.
Here's why Forex is superior:
1. I can't stand risking more than 1% per trade. However, my system sometimes told me to risk more than that, even with one contract only.
2. Longer TF. With wider SL but less $ risk per trade, I can trade more objectively. Currently I was busy entering trade, lot of mistakes, since I had to watch the market exclusively cause I was worried for being stopped out. With forex I just scanning the candidate, enter, and let it flow without too much stressful watch.
3. More Currencies Pair, GBPJPW, EURJPY, that kind of things gave much opportunity. I can entry more relax and my money management will be very intact.
4. No or less manipulation from The Fed

Please give me advice about choosing the broker. My criteria will be no Stop Loss hunter, No Requote, and Easy to take Profit :)

Thursday Result

Will stop trading for a while. I can't stand myself sabotazing myself