Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Another No Trade Outside Currency and Little Inspiration

I watch on youtube Mind over Market, guest: Mark Douglas. There's some inspiration and maybe worth to share to all of you.

He told us about slot machine. People playing the slot machine if lost or didn't hit the jackpot won't be frustrating. Because s/he know that the outcome is random. In fact most of them know that the winning is not at his/her favor (the casino has it). They insert the coin, press the button/pull the trigger, and if it missed, they do it again. Over and over again. Interestingly, most traders don't have this slot machine mentality. If the position is failed, they may frustrating and angry. The expectation is too high. Worse, unlike the slot machine, the market may eat all of our coins in just one trade if we let it loose aka. no Stop Losses.

In fact that, unlike slot machine, trading if we do it right, the winning is in our favour. Let's say, we have the edge. Backtested it and it works. So we apllied it on market. Overtime, guaranteed, we will make profit. Of course Money Management also played in this part. Then why most traders still losses while in theory it's more profitable than the slot machine?

This idea cross my mind, why don't we treat our trades like slot machine? We prepare our coin (money that we risk per trade or Stop Losses), sitting and waiting to hit the button (click the mouse). And if it fail, well like slot machine, nothing to be angered, wait again, looking the signal, hit button again. Over and over. In today's trading especially in Forex, we can even risk $0.01 or 1 cent per trade. Cheaper than slot machine. I strongly believed that this type of mentality will make us money in the long run. If it failed let's say after 20 trades it doesn't give good outcome, we can always tweak or improve our edge to sync with current market condition. Let's say we risked $1 per trade. 20 streak losses in slot machine won't upset us. 5 losing streaks in trading definitely made us mad.

Expectation sometimes a deadly pit in trading. Me too countlessly fell into. Hope it useful :)

2 comments:

  1. I like the idea. Trading should be measured in a longer term scale instead of individual trades - it will make us go crazy.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Black,
    Tq for coming..
    How's ur poke goin? :)

    ReplyDelete