Sunday, March 27, 2011

Weekly Summary, Need Opinion


As I mentioned over and over again, there's only one day of green bar that worth to trade. No surging fast volume in 4 days of the week really make me think something. I must admit, if I only allowed my rules in play, I only made $500 - $1000 at max in one week of trading. It's all from one day trading.

Now, it's frustrated if next week will happen like this again. But also, I cannot push my luck too far. I need your opinion about what I should do. My finding through the light trading week is this:

1. Without the big volume, my hypotesis the Crude Oil will move sideways. It happened this week, but I am not quite sure about this.

2. I had Profit Measurement from CM RoadMap. I saw twice this week, without the green bar it acted as a S/R. I can't backtesting it due to lack of data and skills.

3. The CM RoadMap breached 87% in the same time. If not, another 87% breached the next day. This fact alone is very useful to develop an edge. But I can't measure which way to go if there's no green bar.

4. Choppy filter from Eds Renko helped me a couple times this week.

5. Heavy consolidation (double inide bar, inside-outside-inside as always, worth the $$$)

I really have no clue what I will do next week. I can't just rely on my luck heavily. So I'll do this next week:

1. If there's again no greenbar, I will play the Sideways, though I don't like it, but as trader I must accept all kind of enviornment and become consistent. Of course I still use the CM Pattern as my signal. There're two kinds of Range Play:
A. Heavy consolidation like No.5
B. CM RoadMap Breached without greenbar
C. Daily Chart, based on consolidation and reversal play

2. Avoid Choppy like last hours of Friday. Heavily chopped and it identified on the radat with six same bar renko! I will add different range renko bar to optimize the filter.

3. Money Management still intact, five losses aka $500 maximum losses in a day. CL almost everyday give at worst one or two swing. The problem is, sometimes I already reach the max losses before it move. So I will reduce my number of trades with the rules above.

4. I read ONE GOOD TRADE from Bella and I will implmeneted his principle from start this Monday. It consists:

Preparation, Hard Work, Discipline, Communication, Evaluation.

That's it for Week's play. I expect your opinion from the plan and wish of luck to all of you. IF you need help bout trading, contact me. Though I am not a profitable yet, I'll do my best to help you. :)

7 comments:

  1. Hi De'Trader
    seems that you had been doing great the past few weeks, after the change you made to limit your losses. Hope you plan will do you good this coming week.
    Good luck & happy trading

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  2. Thanks Zu :)
    Never exceed to losing limit yet.Someday it will and that's when the real test coming

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  3. Hi De'Trader

    I do not trade Crude, but the chart seems interesting nowadays...
    this public forum will post regular update on WTI Crude, may be just as a reference....

    http://www.pwforex.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=4

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  4. Seems very complicated. No one can out think Mommy Market. Are you trying to be clever, or are you trying to make money? What is your goal?

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  5. Do the blogging traders truly believe they are smarter than Victor Niederhoffer? Rather than going with the market flow, Victor blew out his hedge fund twice trying to be clever. Again, what is their goal? Why are the bloggers trading? To be clever or to make profit?

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  6. Thanks Ayumi, but you gave me the only member link! lol

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  7. Gump,
    Thanks for coming.
    I don't really know is it working or not. Some people used CM pattern for years and had great result. I used CM Pattern with my own tweaked here and there. I realized even with the best setup out there, it still can fail. That's why my max daily loss limit come in action. Maybe today,tomorrow,next week, who knows?

    My pattern may not work, but i built confidence in it. From Jan-March, there's no siginificant damage if I just follow the momentum. Seem compicated? Maybe not suitable for you. I chat with oil trader using kage-bar, and for me it's complicated. But he can profit every single week.

    Who is Victor?

    ReplyDelete