ECB give possibilities of holding the rate at mid 2019 which is another pressure to EUR along with Holland downgrade revised forecast. Bad news for EUR but not very big impact.
Trade War execution and continuation to another 200 billion more tariff by Trump will hurt global economic and mostly AUD which is down heavily in last 3 days. RBA meeting policy have no clear answer about rate hiking but with this situation very unlikely they want to hike the rate.
Oil is clearly pummeled by Trade War in the last few months. CAD as oil-based currency also suffer from the downtrend and there maybe some move after OPEC meeting this week.
GBP also keep going down mostly anticipating the BOE statement which is also not very promising due to Brexit problem.
Safe haven JPY shines against all other currency. If economic turn gloom and uncertain, look for this currency as the savior. But with BOJ policy still in status quo and deflation threat, the currency should be keep strong except against USD
NZD upcoming GDP report with lower forecast will reflect how AUD economic doing. if result is better than expected then there should be some bounce with AUD.
Summary:
Pairs in focus:
EURGBP
EUR is still in worse shape than GBP. short EURGBP
AUDCAD
CAD may get a surprise at OPEC meeting against AUD that still very week. short AUDCAD
CHFJPY
Both are safe have currency and should be bounce later. Though CHF is dragged by EUR weakness but oversold CHF. long CHFJPY
Trade War execution and continuation to another 200 billion more tariff by Trump will hurt global economic and mostly AUD which is down heavily in last 3 days. RBA meeting policy have no clear answer about rate hiking but with this situation very unlikely they want to hike the rate.
Oil is clearly pummeled by Trade War in the last few months. CAD as oil-based currency also suffer from the downtrend and there maybe some move after OPEC meeting this week.
GBP also keep going down mostly anticipating the BOE statement which is also not very promising due to Brexit problem.
Safe haven JPY shines against all other currency. If economic turn gloom and uncertain, look for this currency as the savior. But with BOJ policy still in status quo and deflation threat, the currency should be keep strong except against USD
NZD upcoming GDP report with lower forecast will reflect how AUD economic doing. if result is better than expected then there should be some bounce with AUD.
Summary:
Pairs in focus:
EURGBP
EUR is still in worse shape than GBP. short EURGBP
AUDCAD
CAD may get a surprise at OPEC meeting against AUD that still very week. short AUDCAD
CHFJPY
Both are safe have currency and should be bounce later. Though CHF is dragged by EUR weakness but oversold CHF. long CHFJPY
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