Today I am not synchronized with the market. All pattern stopped out and it wasn't a good thing. Harmonic can be bad at trending days. All pivots has been violated and no retrace whatsoever. It is obvious that follow the trend and wait for pullback has better winning ratio than blatantly trading the Harmonic Pattern.
I need to find a solution to analyze currency strength. Today is the day that all trades gone wrong. Every pivot point is a losing trade and that is very frustrating. I think one essential thing that very important is how to use the Moving Average. The further price distance with Moving Average, more likely price will reverse and the closer price to Moving Average more likely price will resume the trend.
Next idea is to use different strategy that I have been observed for quite some time. The pullback trading which is the opposite of Harmonic Trading.
Most important thing is how to detect trending market early. One idea comes from currency strength and analyzing MA strength from all pairs.
Weakness of Harmonic Pattern is when it gives signal to short the strongest pair. Worse it give multiple pairs trigger. The powerful pair will wipe out all other currency without retrace.
Good thing is I am not yet in full trading mode. Experience this situation early is very important for a better trade.
I need to find a solution to analyze currency strength. Today is the day that all trades gone wrong. Every pivot point is a losing trade and that is very frustrating. I think one essential thing that very important is how to use the Moving Average. The further price distance with Moving Average, more likely price will reverse and the closer price to Moving Average more likely price will resume the trend.
Next idea is to use different strategy that I have been observed for quite some time. The pullback trading which is the opposite of Harmonic Trading.
Most important thing is how to detect trending market early. One idea comes from currency strength and analyzing MA strength from all pairs.
Weakness of Harmonic Pattern is when it gives signal to short the strongest pair. Worse it give multiple pairs trigger. The powerful pair will wipe out all other currency without retrace.
Good thing is I am not yet in full trading mode. Experience this situation early is very important for a better trade.
yeah, day likes today remind me why I don't follow divergent signal, harmonic signal any more. Both by default are end of trend signal. But we never know for sure when the trend will end. There is a guy who names his indicator 'follow the trend' and I think might start doing that for all my indicators. It all come down to how do I feel by end of day, if I trade end of trend signal then I am one of "buy low, sell high" crowd but I feel uncertain because high/low is all relative. If I trade follow the trend I may miss the entry during it pull back but at least I can pat myself on the back for getting the direction right. In the long run following the trend and joining the trend is easier and less stress than trading end of trend, imho. I might change my mind later but this is what I have for now.
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@Cory,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the advice. Actually I expect this would happen. I agree follow the trend is easier, but I don't think harmonic pattern is a counter trend trading. You can use it for counter trend for sure but I will treat it as a pullback on higher time frame.
Thanks for stepping by. I will write about this mistakes in detail at my next post.
@R_August
Thanks, But if you think you can stop me for trading you are wrong. Trading is the only thing that already freed me from poverty. I am already a successful trader in my own opinion and if you generalized all traders as a scum loser addict, maybe you should broadened your perspective in life.