Monday, August 6, 2018

What is Missing? Winning Streak and Losing Streak Illusion

Why the losing streak happened severely after the winning streak happen? Simple answer is : Because there is a winning streak before.

Let me explain what happened in my experience.

My winning streak occurred when Harmonic Pattern give signal for reversal mostly at one single pairs against other. Let's say AUDJPY, GBPAUD, AUDUSD, and AUDCAD.
After all filtering and everyhting, I trade 3 pairs against AUD because the system said so.
What happened next that all the trades are profitable. Everything is great and everybody happy.

Then few days later, another similar thing happened. This time CAD against other pairs. With the confidence after recent wins? I trade with the same setup, same technique. And what happened next is predictable. All pairs against CAD is busted. The previous winner was wiped out by current losers.

This is why winning streak and losing streak is illusion.

I cannot avoid the losing scenario if I took the winning scenario before. It is impossible to cherry pick which trade is good or not. If you enjoy the winning, you must suffer from the next losing. It is no other way around.

However there is one way to avoid this.

Don't take the winning streak at the first place...
And you will not get the losing streak next time.

At my previous posts before, I talked about how important to keep our trader's mind state stable and calm. This winning and losing streak for sure is not helping. So from what I learned the winning streak should not happen at the first place. I should take only one pair with the best probability and therefore there is only single winning. Then at second trade I also only trade one pair and then there is only one loser. This probably will give the same result with the old strategy. But once again think about the state of mind after experience it. Personally I won't feel comfortable after five winning in a row followed by five losing in a row. It may affect my judgement and calm trading. Too fear for the next setup or revenge trading. Neither will have good outcome.

In conclusion, Harmonic Pattern is still a good tools for me. But next time I will use it more carefully and hopefully I can trade comfortably again.  

1 comment:

  1. Learning how to trade may not be as simple as just looking for some stock market tips , in fact, just reading is not enough. We need practices and hands on experiences to really understand trading. Thanks for sharing your thoughts and knowledge about trading. I would love to see more updates from you.