2010 Reflections

2010 had been my turning point year:
For material achievemnt, it's a disaster. It's been the worst year of my life.
But for knowledge and skill achivement it's yet benn the greatest year of my life. I learnt how to trade properly, cutting losses without hesitation, and confidence to trade well.

I don't know what will become the 2011. But I know I'll prepared whatever happened. 3 years of trading journey, hope to become fruition next year.

However, I need to overcome my bad habit. Overtrade and Trading against the Trend. Also the desire to have green day every day, though it's the main reason I overtrade. If I can overcome these 2 bad habit, I fully believe I can become a good trader.

Explaining the details:
1. Currency will be my main instrument.
2. Crude Oil is very unstable. It may trending and give handsome profit, and it may stalled for the pit session eating the Stop Losses with no mercy.
3. Soybean is a good instrument suppresing my overtrade habit.
4. ES and TF, most of the time is slow chopped and untradable.

Fot all the details, I prefer currency especially EUR and GBP. It's dynamic, trending most of the day, liquid, and surprisingly more forgivable. I am not saying it's easier but it's more convenient.
So, ready for the next year and Happy New Year everyone !! Have great year coming.

Merry Christmas

Or enjoy the long weekend :)

Wednesday

Thanks to Crude Oil, I made slightly green today. EUR was the worst I've ever seen. At least in my Trading Time.

Monday ZS Only

Only trade ZS, after first faked out, suspicious the slow dull market so decided not trade ZS anymore.

Common Fear That Trapped Trader

This is purely my opinion and based on my self-experience. There're lot of common fear in our brains that prevent us to become great trader. Most fear may be general and detailed. It may correalate with each other, and sometimes contradictory. Here we go:
1. Fear of Cutting Losses.
Reasons:
a. Feel terrible after Cut Loss, price get back
b. Hurt the self-dignity
c. Just don't want to loss
d. Thousands other reason

2. Fear of Riding the Profit.
Reasons:
a. Feel extremely awful if price get back and become losses
b. Urged to feel the comfort after taking profit
c. Emotionally can't stand the pullback even the slightest move
d. Salary mentality

3. Fear of Entering at Peak/Bottom
Reasons:
a. Don't want to be a sucker
b. Don't want to be wrong
c. Don't want to cut losses

4. Fear of Missing Opportunities
Reasons:
a. Afraid the price will leave him forever
b. Impulsive after waiting then missed the opportunity

5. Fear of Not Profitable After Full Day Hardwork Trade
Reasons:
a. Angry if the work didn't pay
b. Tend to overtrade

6. Fear of Scaling Up
Reasons:
a. Fear of ruined the previous positions
b. Fear of stopped out

7. Fear of Profit Taking too early
Reasons:
a. Fear of losing opportunities

8. Fear of Re-entry the positions at worse price
Reasons:
a. Still agonizing the previous losses
b. Fear of being wrong again
c. Don't want to be stupid

Too many fear out there tilt our power. The truth in trading to counter some of the trade:

1. Trading is all about timing and momentum. You can enter buy at price 100 and waiting for 3 hours to make price moved to 120, or you can buy at 110 and wait just 1 minutes for the price to move 120. No reason to enter the worse price. If timing is right, the worse price will become a better price.

2. Stop Losses. You need hundredth of consequtive losses to become bankrupt if you risk 1% per trades. While you only need one bad trade to wipe out all your account if you don't put Stop Losses.

3. Riding the profit, if it succeed then you're trading with the trend. If not, it may chopped or against the trend. And there's no better setup than trading with the trend.

4. Don't have to profit every day. Rather have -100,-100,+600 than +100,+100,-600. Urge of daily profit may give the second scenario.

That's it for now, hope it useful for fellow traders :)

Weekly Slight Losses

Crazy trend from EUR really save my week. Stay 1 hour longer, I could booked 200 ticks in one day! Overall 102 ticks is still a record for me.

Chopped Till You Drop!!!

Gain $380 from currency before giving back almost all thanks to crude oil :(
This is one of the worst Timing on Crude Oil. If I used my old setup, there will be more than 8 times stopped out = $800!!! $hit man.

But never give up, I still trade Crude Oil. If I once succeed, I will still succeed. The feeling is worse than having straight losses. Sigh

Monday

Got out Soybean too fast. Should easily booked $500 profit solely from soybean in 10 minutes. Crazy price, love it :)

No Trade Outside Currency

But I' still posted it since I made 96 ticks :)

Crude Oil also made great move today. I just didn't trade it :( ZS moved 9 cent in less than 15 minutes. TF..... super lame. Everything moved very nice today.

I'm gonna share some story. My uncle wanted to become a daytrader. He's already rich man and he set $10000 for trading. After 1 year of trading. His account now around $5800. Well, it's a record since 90% of day traders (I think) blewout his first account in less than 1 year. He's very strict to stop loss. At the beginning he never used that and his account was reduced very fast. But now, although still bleeding, the rate was not so fast. Maybe around -1% per day.

The weakness from him is:
1. Very super fast to profit taking. Never give chance price to pullback. Always got out before the pullback. I told him over and over again that pullback is normal thing. But everytime price moved 5 ticks against him after the profit, he will become afraid and get ready to get out. In his career for one year of trading, he never profit more than $100 per trade. That's around 13 ticks/pips in mini lot. I can't believe that!!!
2. Trade micro lot aka M6E. This symbol always have issue. Illiquid, high spread, plus commision. It's worse than the worst bucket-shop broker out there. I trade it too sometimes, But I targeted for more than 100 ticks. Never succeed though. Average incl commision worthe the spread of 4 pips! per round. Sometimes worse. I told him that micro lot can only profitable for swing trading, 50-100 pips at minimum. But as usual, 25 ticks was his hisghest record.
3. Give up after losses. It's good thin not to over trade. But as a daytrader, 2 consequtive losses means end of day? That's very risk averse. Also sometimes after the signal failed, he won't take another signal for a while. And most of the time it's too late.
4. Have bias as expert say. Sometimes enter based on expert sayin' I did it once and losses more than 160 ticks fighting the market all day :( Never again I do it.
5. Trade with 14inch laptop only, without using mouse. It's swing trader, not a daytrader.
6. Gambler mentality. If he lose this $10000 coin, then that's all for him. What? Is it like playing at casino?

He's very quick learner. I mean, he had passion to learn something new. And I don't wnat him to give up. At least I have friend to discuss trading :)

If anyone have advice how to overcome this weakness please tell me. I also had weakness too like overtrade. But I do my best to get over it. And so far so good :) Hope I keep improving.

Crude Oil only

I traded mostly currency, dumped the TF and watched mode for ZS and Co. So made one trade with hesitation on Crude Oil, stopped out twice, it dived $500 less in 5 minutes. But I just got 21 cent for 11 cent nett profit.

Currency now become my favorite symbol, especially EUR. It's so dynamic and I can trade with confidence. GBP used to be my darling. Now it's quite a mess. Sometimes it's good but I felt some strange feeling bout it. AUD, too tight range, rarely dynamic. But it's trending mode were crazy. Shallow pullback or slammed dropped/surged. CHF, too iliquid. It may up/down 10 ticks less than 10 second at quiet market. JPY, never watched it, erased it from my memory.

Limiting Belief

I already made nice $320 at London Session. As I wanted to develop as a trader, I continued trading. Spotted nice chopped EUR, chopped all the way in narrow range.

Prepared 7E, stopped out. Now prepared the 6E, stopped out again. Next, flipped at -1tick, stopped out. Flipped again to short and ride the choppy dived. I saw my previous Stop order at 3240, deleted it. Then price fell further AND EAT MY 3228 ORDER!!!! WTF... I FORGOT TO DELETE IT!! Price went up fast so I got out at 3236, Now my Average Short Price become 3241 from 3256!!! I put my SL at Breakeven, prepared to lose this fight. Thankfully price never breached the spot, almost... So I rode the downfall again and got out at 3213. Not so bad :)

Prepared the commodity trading ZS, moved too fast...SL slipped 2 ticks, next stop again..no slipped. Price soared, entered long, set to Breakeven, breached, re-entry at 1277, now my limit belief took over. Got out at 81 since that's the spot I got back my previous profit. Less than 5 minutes, it soared to 1287 for 10 cent worth $500!!!
ZW, very choppy today. Short it, moved only 2 cent suspicious and got out at par. I was right, it was choppy today.

All of my trade came from 1 contract trading. I need suggestions from all of you. Are $300-ish profit per day worth the one contract? Busy day today, decided to leave Crude Oil today. Time to rest...

Trade Not To Lose

Today's currency was normal. Stopped out twice and then the system worked! But nothing trending, as prices just gave me 30 ticks max. Interesting story came after the Currency. Trade

TF...as usual...chopped, decided not to trade it when got scratch profit.

Opening Soybean etc, looked at early downtrend. Very strong, late to get in since I had earlier profit to protect ( I know it's kind a 'illogic' to make daily profitable day). Then decided to enter ZS, and it's rudely stopped me out 3 times for six cent!!! Bye-bye my profit I accumulate for 5 hours dissaapeared in less then 30 minutes. The last signal, I took it with little hope, it dived for 5 cents, I took 4 cents. Lessen my losses.

Still up around $100, I couldn't accept it. So I waited and waited the Crude Oil. Patiently waiting for almost one hour. These boogies chopped, slam, upside down. If I did the normal system, I might down another $300 minimum. But I learnt my lesson, so Crude Oil need special treatment. I waited and waited until it took my short position at 88.85, STOPPED OUT AT THE EXACT TICK @ 88.95. That's okay, it's happened all the time. Now, down $100 for the day, kept my calm, set the short @ 88.83. Then this deadly symbol dived again AND MY SHORT WASN'T FILLED and it went 40 cents should-become-my-profit!!!! Oh I WAS VERY VERY MAD!!My patient were worthless today. Fortunately Lady Luck Came to me. I long near the recent bottom @ 88.48, got out @ 88.70 :) This entry came from luck and experience. I entered at second washout so it's pretty low risk. Should wait for another minute I may get 20 cents more. But thankful enough since price went down again in a flash for third washout or maybe resume downtrend.

So, in summary, ZS and Company was not very nice when entered near the mid day, but very lucrative at the opening. Crude Oil was very rude stopped me out and unfilled issue was really make me mad. But all forgiven. Still -$20 from the current profit but it's a relieve.

My mental state not to lose blocked my potential to make better profit. Should fix this, I need Trade to Win!

Nett : $210

Saved By Farmer

Screwed up the Currency. Trading's like chess. One wrong moved may ruin everything. Like today. If I didn't have bias, I may booked massive profit from EUR. I did everything to fight back. My trades showed it. Long-Stopped-Short-Cut Loss-Buy-Profit Taking-etc...

Then US session, I trade TF and CL for starter. Well, the TF another played with the unlimited life-CPU, no need to continue. I was down -$190 after the tireless battle. And get ready for Soybean,Corn,Wheat. I covered the deficit with ZS and ZW IN 3 MINUTES!!! That's right 3 MINUTES VS 7 HOURS from other trades.

Nett Profit : $115, i need to rest

Thoughts

So many novices thing (myself included) if I knew and mastered the technique of trading, we can be profitable. So just sit down, learn the best technique in the world, mastered it, and make profit. That's what every education trading site or workshop give their 'secret' and you go on your own. Is it....?

That's only of one third true. Just knowing is not enough to win in this market. It's like learning how to drive from a manual guide or text book. Can you drive after that? Sure you can, but chances to not having accident are very slim. And then you go to simulation driving and mastered it? Can you drive after that? Sure but still there's high chance to crash. Then you got to drive real car at the trainign circuit and passed? Can you drive at the real road? Sure, but again accidentrs rate still high.

Then what's trading look like? I'd like to make some analogue here, trading is like racing, competing with other professional drivers and newbies. The road is still mistery, it may rocky, smooth, or it's dirt, wet, slippy. And worse, your sight range is limited because of fog. The road may change from smooth to wet, then smooth again, rocky. How hard is it driving like that? Fortunately, you still win even you're not top three, if you touch the finish line, at least the top half. The other half may blowout his car, crushed, and never cross the finish line. If you finish last, you still lose. So the key here is driving carefully but still with hi-speed. You took the prize from betting money the other losing half.

Too much brake may slow you down (too tight stop losses). No brake is suicide (No Stop Loss). Stop your car after nearly have an accident may save you, but make money is impossible (Stop trading after stopped out). Reducing the speed after leading means losing the position(Taking Profit Too Early). Bumpy road need different technique from smooth road.

Trading is need mental preparation, open mind, accepting the worst, and thinking two steps ahead. Before entering the trade, you should think: What should I do if it doesn't work out?

$hit Emini and Crude Oil

I was not intended to trade multiple contract. Why should I? Greater risk error, Must have quick move, fast eye, and one missed will ruin everything. But I trade to make money. Watching today's market Currency on London, Emini all the time, Crude Oil want to make me puked. I didnt' want trade Emini. It's disastrous. So what did I trade today?

1. EUR

2. GBP

3. AUD

4. ES

5. CL

6. QM

7. TF

8. ZW

9. ZC

Should stick to currency today. Notes to self: Pre-NFP may hazardous to Currency. And there's huge opportunity trading after the report for currency.

To me the best instrument to trade by far is currency. It's structured, not too fast, and respect with technical.

The worst instrument by far are Emini. Zillion pullback, Chopped dead, and it's slower than snail.

Confused about Crude Oil. It's trending sure, but nowadays there's too much pullback that made me couldn't ride the trend.

Interesting instrument with Commodities. It's so trending. Very strong. It may become my ride for the futures.

This week I made merely scratch. Chopped death TF and Crude severe my performance.

Also I made a truce with myself. EFT just made me so calm that I even trade with very little emotions.

Multitasking Result

One of my biggest weakness (maybe most of us) is can't stand letting the profit run. That's happened on CL. My plan was taking 50cent profit but get out 27cent instead. Of course it breached mine. GBP also too early got out (it gave me 50ticks profit).

I was multitasking 2 symbol today. GBP and EUR, or CL and GBP. It gave me more objective trading. I thought I healed from trigger shy syndrome. Usually after big losses, I trade like a coward. Today, none of it. EFT worked!!! I didn't realize it but it worked.

I made around $392 before giving back $141 to the ZS market. Today's ZS was so dead..unlike yesterday. Can't expect everyday a tradeable day for beans. But the good thing is:

1. I CAN TRADE UNAFRAID OF GIVING BACK MY PROFIT!!

2. I CAN STOP TRADING WHEN THE MARKET IS DEAD (ZS)!!

Today I just made $320. But I gave the best in me. Fighting the uncomfort of trading after good profit. Fighting the desire taking back my losses. That's a new me. I will keep doing everything I can to become a great trader.

Misfortune...

Well, this is what happened when I have my courage to tragger trade again. Total misfortune. TF 4 times stopped out, I can tolerate that since this index sometimes untradable at all.

ZS, so stupid...flipped my last position, stopped out, and it run more almost 20 points without me. That's $1000 per contract!!!

CL, stopped out mercillessly. Should not trade before inventory. Stopped out twice, it's ok. Then after the report operation error cost me around $200. After I gave up for the day, price soared 50 cent. That's $500!!!

I used Emotional Freedom Technique (EFT) to overcome my Trigger Shy. It worked!! and this disaster happened. Sigh :(

WHY....WHY...????? Please somebody help me with this...

From this day on, I will triggered every signal until my target reached. I will target $1000 per day!!! Don't have to reach it, but definitely I will aim it. I am tired being played emotionally.