Tuesday, July 10, 2018

Confluence Example

Pairs: AUDJPY
Pattern : Bearish Max Butterfly
Pivot : Weekly R100
Fibonacci : 61.8
Candle Reversal : Evening Star
RSI : Overbought (Not very reliable)

Trade Signal : Sell
Target 1 : R78
Target 2 : R61


The trade is Technical vs Sentiment. It looks like trading fighting the trend. Harmonic Patterns usually are an uncomfortable trade. Rarely happened sentiment and technical in sync with each other.

After trading the pattern for a while, the winning ratio is less than 50%. Aspire trader usually avoid this strategy. They have to endure many losses in a row which will happen very often. What will happen next is trader will change their strategy over and over. The longer time frame the more valid the pattern, in my opinion. Patience is the key. Price will move wherever they want to move. But with patience and discipline, overtime the gain will come.

Trading is a game of probability. Market sentiment also very important. We must have basic fundamental understanding of each Pairs. Combining the technical and sentiment is the art. I think trading is different kind of intelligence. Brain, experience, logic, risk appetite, emotion, all combined.
Don't aim for 100% profit in one week. Be reasonable. Build the equity slowly. If you want to get rich faster, use other people money. Don't over trade. Don't use trading for adrenaline rush. It should be boring. Performance must based on good trade management. Not how much profit to make. Do it over and over and over and we can get the freedom we dream of.


   

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