Nice Small Profit on US Holiday + Monthly Result

I don't even think trading at US session today. So I trade earlier, and the volume was actually thinner. This is the last trade I made on May.
Monthly Net Result : $2100++ :)
Etc = +$17.61 (various options)
6A = par
6B = + 45 ticks
6E = - 63 ticks
6J = + 96 ticks
6S = - 5 ticks
CL = +437 ticks
QM = + 10 ticks
ES = - 27 ticks
TF = + 28 ticks
ZS = - 4 ticks

Breakout and Reversal Pattern applied. 3 Trade, 2 win 1 lose

Wish a nice holiday for American people.

Time to Relax

As a daytrader, have you ever felt happy or relieved when you had a decent or good profit for the day? You want to quit today's work as mission accomplish. "I picked my daily wage today" you thought. And it's time for a little fun.

I never discouraged having fun after a good job. In fact I agreed with thought that having recreation outside trading is neccesary. However the motivation behind it is completely wrong. The money you make today has little to do with monthly performance. The attitude behind this is my money have to be repaired. Noone guarantee the money you make today will be taken back by the market in seconds. The only thing to stop this is by stop trading forever.

It's ok to have fun wheter you make a profit or a loss. It's even better when you have losses to stoped trading and have some fun. If you had let's say a restaurant business, it's kind of strange if you have a party after having a 200 customers which is usually only 100 come in. Because you know that this event won't come every day.
The same happened with trading. :)

Breakout Setup

After Reversal Pattern, I'll show some breakout pattern which is also reliable.
1. Draw Support - Resistance around the price
2. Identify Price Action near the S/R. Favour the stronger Price Action. In this case the Price at Support is strong. It's likely go the opposite side.
3. Wait the breakout of favorable direction.
4. Enter 2 or 3 tick below the breakout price if go for long and vice versa
5. Exit based on profit target. 10 Ticks is recommended.

It's nice to exit on profit, but it feels better after exiting the price reverse aka. exit near the max profit :)

Another Reversal Pattern

Additional with this strategy is using STOP LIMIT for entering the Setup.
STOP LIMIT is like STOP, but with LIMIT PRICE.
Advantage:
-Your queue may not be seen cause it's only trigerred when price get into yours. Unlike limit or stop that the queue is right in everybody's eye.
-Protect from spiking price. The sudden price if using stop may filled you with bad price. Sometimes the worst price that time.

Disadvantage:
-In fast market it's very frequent the price won't get filled. But we can reduce the chance by tolerate 1 tick. In volatile market, 1 tick is not so important as market may move 10 tick in seconds.

Notes:
If you are a with trend trader, then you may enter the breakout after sudden volume. That's where other counter trader put their stop loss. Sometimes it's a trap, but most of the time give little more pips/ticks to enjoy. Just be careful as surging volume at bottom/peak shows exhaustion where most of with trend trader got out and counter trend get in.

Last word : Trade with your own risk :)

FIGHTING THE TREND MENTALITY..HELP!!

I am addicted at fighting the trend. I think 80% of my trade started with fighting the current trend. I am a counter trend trader and it busted me... a lot.

Today I counter trend again. Most of them. I bought Crude Light when the Dow gap down over 200pts. I bought my last CL at $67.19. Sold it at $68.40. There's just little happy story. Most of the time I struggle and painfully fighting the wave.

I want to stop but I kept doing it. Now I enter my mind and find out the logic behind it.

1. I hate to become a herd. It's happened back to August 2007 when the market was on peak, I remembered buying China ETF at the peak. It kept haunting me how am I so stupid. So the mentality brought until now. I don't want to become sheep buying on top or selling at bottom.
2. Peace of mind. In CL case, I kept hunting the low/top of the day. When I got it, I will relax a bit. I hate enter at the middle because I am afraid the odd that price may fetch again. In reality, trending market don't even look back. There's just pull back and it's usually shallow especially in strong market.
3. Fading the moves mean quick and fast profit. Trending market usually going slower and retrace faster. That's make sense because everybody will react slower when entering the market but act faster when it comes to profit taking. WHen it's time to profit taking, the mind visualized how much profit based on they saw on screen. But suddenly the price retrace fast and the profit suddenly decreasing. Afraid to lose profit, we act faster to secure the profit. Thousands of people do the same thing and the price go much faster.
4. No regret. Counter trend setup usually aim for a less profit. Because every counter traders know they're against the tide. So, after profit taking the price usually goes back to the trend-stream. So it's higher odd to profiting at the peak/bottom. Give a relieve feeling that we do the right things. If I did the with trend entry, most of the time the price will go further after profit taking, sometimes very far. I felt stupid enough profiting too early.
5. Tight Stop Loss. Only stupid people enter the counter trend setup with wide stop. It's high odd probability the stop will take out. Of course the tight stop will have higher odd being taken out but at least the loss's smaller. After being taken out, I'll look another setup to counter again, sometimes after the price go further with the trend. Sooner or later, the price have to stopped and it's time to enter the counter movement.
6. Most of the time, market is on Ranging Mode. I think about 70%-80%. Fading the Range Market is all bread and butter.
7. Lastly, I think I am a daily wage trader. Stop trading after getting decent profit.

I would like to break this mentality. But I don't know how. I want to surf with trend, not swim against it. I want to learn how to enter a little late with the trend rather than a little too early against the trend.

If someone out there know how to solve my problem. Please share me some advice or anything. I will greatly appreciate it. Oh, and my previous post about counter trend, it work. 7-10 ticks less then 5min.

Here's the result from against the trend. Not purely apply the method. If so, the result will much better.

HIGH ODD PATTERN SHARED

I'd like to share the Pattern Reversal. The Chart is 1min 6j (JPY Futures) and it's applied to other instrument.

Conditions:
- Market is on trending mode
- When the market is on trend, watch for the surging volume, usually it's the with trend candle.
- Do not enter yet, because there's usually a final wash for weak hand.
- After the breakout showed, enter the 1st counter-trend candle. Put Stop Loss 1 tick below/above the top/bottom.
- If there's a 2nd washout, you'll be stopped out. Wait for another surging volume.
- You may enter the 1st counter trend candle or wait for another breakout.
- Stop Loss rules apply the same.

This is only my price action sharing pattern. Do it with your own risk.

Here's another example :



Notes : because of the counter trend setup, it's very wise to scalp your profit. 8 - 10 tick may good enough. Though, if you're lucky you may find yourself at the new reversal trend.

YEN Story

I still don't trust EUR. So I shorted and longed JPY.

I am considering adding the contract as I turned into a semi-scalper.
But I still always scalped my losses.

Night Result

Not my usual style I scalped my profit.
Tired of being chopped out, walk the way of hi probability winning ratio.

BACK WITH VENGEANCE

Once again, Crude Oil saved the day. EUR sucks!, JPY more sucks! (it's my fault anyway)

Scalp my losses, Swing my profit :)

Chopped and Slammed

Long EUR @ 2511 up to 2518 exit @2512
Another pattern emerged, get out but too late entering new setup

Short JPY @ 1092 stopped @ 1099 Re-entry @ 1090 exit @ 1091
Based on rule, 2nd exit based on EUR reversal

Short EUR @ 2499 stopped @ 2505
Applying setup

Long EUR @ 2504 stopped @ 2503
Pre-Emptive from missing entry

Long EUR @ 2502 scaling up @ 2509
Exit @ 2511 and 2508

Short JPY @ 1086 exit @ 1083

-- Doubt with the continuation

Short EUR @ 2517 faked the breakout
Exit @ 2514 after touching 2491

Long JPY @ 1083 stopped @ 1074
Based on Pattern

Pre-Emptive Re-entry @1077 and scaling up @1084
Exit @1086 and 1089

Long EUR Pre Emptive @2516 stopped @2510
Another Long EUR @2512 stopped @2510

Short EUR Faked @2513 stopped out @2511
Last Attempt before shutting down and EUR diving another 60 tick. F***k !!!

Currency Slam and Chop all night long. Every break followed by deep retracement and shallow follow through.
My stopped were swallowed and the profit from breakthrough won't be enough to cover my losses, had to exit on par.
Widened Stop Loss wasn't sufficient and make matter worse because of price slam. It made the churning stomach and emotional decision.

I have a Bad Habit

Accumulating small losses and realized that the losses was too big. I was tilt yesterday and my trading mood dropped to negative level. The good thing was I still profitable this month, though very little.

From now on I will do methodical approach for my trading setup. I was aware that my biggest winning, ( also my biggest lose ) came from discretionary trade. That's why I can't stomach the roller coaster ride anymore.

No trade today. Expiration day and Bad mood gave me reason.

I have been warned today

I trade badly. Result : Devastating Loss. Still green this month though

Tuesday Result

I was profitable at my 2nd entry. The only problem is I cut my profit too early even though I still discipline enough at Risk Reward Ratio. The 6J is not good enough. My bad habit came again. My cut losses early still intact, but my keep profit run become dull.

The power of scaling up was showed.

End of Day

My Confidence Entry Signal

Here's my breakup entry pattern from EUR Future ALONE!!!
If I was persistent enough then I could make 100 ticks today. The 5 signals, everything resulted more than 20 ticks. Of course there's some days that dull enough made my pattern busted. But there's always...I mean always 1 valid signal that can results more than 20 pips. If you make a good money management trade, you only need 1trade to profit and clean your 3 or 4 losing trades.

To become a consistent profitable trader, here's my tips:
1. Trade - 1 win - end of the day
2. Trade - small losses - keep trading - another small losses - keep trading - 1 big win - end of the day

That's why I said $100 per day is achievable. And I have done this from the start of May. 1 lose - 1 BEP - win all the rest. The losing day because I don't use this method.

Today I just made more than $250 :)

And here's my $10.000 tips for betting in the next World Cup applying the same method.

There are 10 days when the match begin simultanously. Here's the trick:

Assuming you bet $100 per match, you must pick the favorable team. If you win the first match. Done for the day. If you lose the first match, betting the second match (the same day) also the favorable team $200. If you win done for the day. If lose again, betting the third game $400.

I MUST SAY THAT THERE'S NO WAY ON EARTH ALL THE FAVORABLE TEAM LOSING IN 1 DAY!!! THERE IS HIGH POSIBILITY ALL THE THEREE FAVORABLE TEAMS WIN IN 1 DAY, BUT WHY TAKING RISK? THERE MUST BE AT LEAST 1 FAVORABLE TEAM WIN ON THOSE DAYS. IT HAPPENED AT GERMAN WORLD CUP 2006. 100% RATE WINNING RATIO AND IT WILL HAPPEN AGAIN THIS JUNE..

There's my gift for the reader. Good luck with your bet :)

5 Minutes Work, Done for the day

I should do my trading method.
Cut Losses early, keep trading until reaching $200 net profit/day.
Today my first attempt was suceed. And that's enough for the day. I don't know what else to do :)

PARADOX IN LIFE

I lived in the country where the average salary per month $300. Working from 9-5, 40 hours per week, not include low paid overtime. Here we are, is offered $2000 per month with very little work time sometimes less than 30 minutes. I must say in confidence that making $100 per day is achievable and guaranteed. If I losed that day, then it's confirmed that I pursued more than $100. My setup is so reliable that I don't even have to read the news anymore. It's all about Price Action.

I lived in country where traders are not a respectable career. No wonder becaouse this career filled with crooks and hype marketing. Every single trading seminar was bought by local self-proclaimed guru.

It's so amazing that very few people in my country looking for freedom offered from trading. Job event filled by thousands people looking for work. While there is none trading workshop that even teach the basic of trading. NONE !!! All of them filled with get-rich-quick scheme.

Majority the people in my country only interesting at instant result, even the government policy only support for instant result. While we all know that trading need process. 3,4,10 years. Not many people bared for looking that long.

I am one of that strange people, grinding the process to become a profitable trader. I spent 3 years trading, up and down mostly down. I don't even have a single profitable year in my process. Now, I am in the spot where $100 per day is guaranteed result. And in the process to make more than that.

EXHAUSTED

I can't trade anymore today.

Traders : Profession of the Future

I know it's very hard to become a sucessful trader. It took time, skills, effort, and right mentality. It's by all mean the hardest profession in the world. But it's also the most lucrative career in the world.

I must say that traders also the most recession-proof career. Some trader even more profitable when recession happened. Trading symbloze the human's freedom. Almost no boundary. No Boss, No Customers.

Unfortunately, the failure rate maybe the highest and the fastest to fail. But fortunately it can be learned. You just need eyes and brain (of course capital) to become a trader.

For those of you who chose the career as a trader, wish you good luck.

Struggling

Keep discipline sometimes didn't pay in the short run. Like today's result.
But the last trade close beautiful. Scaling up, exit just 3 ticks above my target. Not so discipline but still in tolerant zone.

Trading Rate : B+

FOCUSING ON YOUR STOPS

Again, about StopLoss...
In every trades, I doubt that the most concerned about is about STOPLOSS. People hate being a loser. People dislike talking about losing. There's No Biography about losers, except for infamous criminals that suceed with his/her careers. Everybody want to be a winner.

Maybe you already know that in this world, there's something we can control and can't control. Ironically in trading, the only thing we can control is our entry and exit. We can't control our profit. The market decide it. But we can control our loss, in the form of our stop loss.

Yesterday I slipped out my Stops. I was too late entering my Stops and the Price keep countering my positions. I was jaded and then my discipline began wearing off. I "Hope" the market will retrace a bit because it went too far down. Fortunately the Black Swan wasn't coming and I can get out with little profit. However, if something bad happened, then my Profit will evaporate plus a lot more. This is how a little bad thing become a big one. I was lucky on Friday. Someday, it won't be.

Wish you a good trade all the way

Treat Day Trading As A Business

Have you ever feel frustrated after losing? Thinking about how much money you lose and regretted why ever trading if we keep losing money? I'd like to help you to swift perception about trading and making analogy with business so we may realized that trading is a form of a business.

Business like trading. We make a plan, execute it, and take the result. Wheteher it's profit or loss. In every business, we need a solid plan, strategy, tactic, measurement, cost, investment, and so on. In trading we also need all of it. Just like trading, business also need a research, analysis, etc. So here's the most important element of business that the very same with trading.

Let's say you start a laundry business. You will make plan. Profit target yearly, monthly,weekly, daily. You then research the laundry business and also the environment. And you calculate the COST and INVESTMENT.... Yes, you get what I mean? COST and INVESTMENT. You already calculate how much cost to start a business. In trading, the COST is your STOP LOSSES. The STOP LOSSES is pre-defined just like business. Most of beginners I know don't care about the COST. Now the question is... Do you treat your trading as a SLOT MACHINE or BUSINESS?
...Even SLOT MACHINE has a pre-defined COST.

If the Cost become too big aka you keep losses, the it's time to review your business.
1. Is it because Un-calculated COST aka. STOP LOSS TOO BIG?
2. Is it because you reject customer aka. PROFIT TAKING TOO EARLY?
3. Is it because you cannot compete with your rival aka. LACK OF EDGE/ADVANTAGE?
4. Is it because your business lack of system and violate your own rules aka. LACK OF DISCIPLINE?

There's almost no difference between Trading and Business. To survive in this battle, a constant improvement and development are needed.

Hope this help...

Thursday Night Result

I had a downslope profit. But it's still profit.
And Again, let profit run, cut losses early prevail.
Though I am not letting profit run too far :(

Bear Oil Confirmed

If Cl doesn't keep above the $74.50, then welcome to new recession :)

1 Profit Cleaned 3 Losses

One more, not afraid to lose and make a decent profit from oil. Have you cut your losses early?

OIL UPDATE

Okay, the OIL is in important section. It is going to Re-test the $74.50 and more likely it will come tonight or even before market open. Here's the scenario. No doubt the Price will go to $74.50. After that, it will bounce hard or dive deeper. But it won't stay. S/R will be $74.50 - $76.00

Brief explanation about Crude Oil:

Crude Oil (CL) Contract at my broker costs $2000 per contract.
The multiply in cents. 1 cents worth $10. The commision almost the same with E-Mini.

Quiet Day : 100 cents range with 20-40 cents multiple wave
Medium Day : 150-200 cents range with 50-100 cents multiple waves
Busy Day : over 250 cents range with over 100 cents multiple waves

Even on quiet day you may book 50 cents profit on CL. That's $500 per contract.
In busy day, $1000 profit may look too small.

On quiet day, it's like having 20 pts E-mini range, which not happen much of the time.

So, interested in Crude Oil ?? :)

Another Cut Losses Early, Let Profit Run

Another 18% RR Ratio, still making decent profit.
Imagine with 50% ratio, how many profits you may reap? :)

Newbies Mistakes

Here's my list of mistakes as newbie:
1. Angry and frustrated when taking loss because everytime the losses is bigger than the profit.
2. More frustated when taking losses and then second later the price went back to my "should be profit target"
3. Anxious when the price zig-zag around our initial entry. My heart like a roller coaster depending where the price go.
4. Letting losses run and hoping this is just a nightmare
5. Cut profit early because scared the profit will vapourize and I will feel depression
6. Over confidence after small winning streak and acted like I owned this world
7. Anxious when trading after one big losses that wiped out my profit if not more and crush my confidence. Put very tight stop loss and lengthen the losing streak.
8. Lazy and trade with complacency. Without realizing the market has change environment.

The holy grail is not about technique or indicator. It's about ourselves. And it's a lot of holy grails. One of my holy grail is accepting losses as it's part of me. It's so difficult that maybe some people may never got to these conditions. I got this enlightenment after 3 years of minus account.

Please share your mistakes so we can learn at each other. Best Wishes :)

Wed Result

I had a decreasing profit these days. JPY is killing me multiple time, while CL...CL still a good thing to trade, except I was wrong seeing the weak CL as strong CL.. I looked at ES and thought that the ES is weak compared to CL. What I was looking is not ES, but it's JPY. Realizing I was wrong, I flipped my trade and booked little profit. An expensive lesson.

Trade Rating : B-

An Active Day Trader : Why not sub-contract the work to the Bot?

As a day trader, it's very important to not have a bias. Trade what you see on chart, with discipline rules and plan attached. So why don't outsource your work to the Robot? The simple answer is because we always learn new thing while the Bot don't. Not long ago, DX (Dollar index) became an indicator, yesterday, EUR became the indicator. Now maybe EUR/JPY is the everybody's watching.

I doubt your Robot may do it automicatically, backtesting it, and come out with new methodology.

Market is dynamic. Everybody want a piece of it, if not lot of pieces. It's not an ATM Machine that will give money every day. It's more like slot machine, but with a puzzle on it. The puzzle always change, but still with a pattern to solve.

How To Avoid Stop Loss Hunting

Stop Loss Hunting is institutional evil trick to profit from Retail Stop Loss. They're deliberately moving the price so they can get the Trader's Losses realized and the price spiked to the trader's direction. Of Course without them on it.

So how to avoid these stop loss? No easy answer, but my opinion is: It's okay being stopped out. You may re-entry anytime you want. So it's very important to have a tight stop loss. It didn't do lot of harm. That's why the risk-reward ratio must be more than 2,3, even 10.

Unfortunately, you can't leave your open trade because we'll never knew when our Stops being washed out.

My blogs maybe full of article about losses, while everyone barking about how much profit they made. I still thinks that if we can manage our losses, then the profit will take care of themselves.

You don't have control from profit taking, but you do have control of Stop Losses. Mastered something you can control and leave the rest to do his own way, will make trading more simple.

Night Results

Very Discipline and Very Rewarding Risk Reward Ratio
Grade : A-

Monday Results May 5Th

Rate : C+

IF YOU CAN'T AFFORD TO LOSE, DON'T TRADE

I know everybody who's trading understand the title's meaning. But I want to explore the depth of those words more thoroughly.

If your capital let's say $10.000 (pure assets, no debt inside) and you lose $100 per trade and you are jaded and start thinking what can you get from the money instead of giving it to the market then you can't afford to lose. I don't care if you have $1.000.000 but if you're angry for losing the $100, you can't afford to lose emotionally. Like uncle Scrooge paying two shilling for his friend's funeral.
This is the most difficult psychologic barrier for people trading. They don't want to lose. This is very true, even you said to yourself it's okay to lose sometimes, your mind doesn't accept it.

I lost thousands of dollar before I realize the very essential form of trading. YOU MUST LOSE.

So what's the characteristic trader who don't want to lose?
1. Breaking their Stop Loss.
2. Averaging Down.
3. Let Losses Run
4. Cut profit early
5. Overtrade.


I am not saying averaging down is a bad thing. The wrong thing to do about averaging down is to make it Break Even faster or making small profit. Sooner or later you will be wiped out, mostly sooner.

Here's some practice how to comfortably taking losses. Unfortunately there's no easy way to do it.
- Take entry randomly with very tight stop loss less than 0.5% of your account and let the profit run.
- Do it until you lose 10 times
- Sleep well

You are mostly got stopped out over and over. And if you don't sleep well then you are not ready to accept losses. If any of the trades don't stopped out, let it run until it's being stopped. It's suicidal I know but It's the only way to heal your mentality.

How much the cost? 5% of the capital. 99% traders if not 100% experienced more than 10% loss in just one trade. So the 5% is quite decent.

I do it. I do it over and over again until my mind accept those losses as part of business. After 3 years of trading, now I know hot to accept losses properly.

If you are not agree, then suit yourself. It's my method. If you want to do it, then go ahead. Feel the change in your mentality and the change in you. YOU MUST LEARN TO LOSE !

The Power Of Pyramiding / Scaling Up

Let's say you found a low risk setup but a lower probability and a high risk setup with a higher probability.
Logically, the lower probability setup must have more signals than the other one. With this case, you had a powerful setup with a low risk.

Lets make a calculation:
1. Assume your low risk setup have only 40% chance to emerge. And the Risk Reward Ratio 1:3
2. The higher probability have 70% chance with Risk Reward Ratio 1:1. It's logical that with high winning rate the reward ratio is lower.
Let's just say the first setup is pre-entry setup from second setup

Now all we have to do is combine the setup to become single profitable strategy but with only 28% chance winning rate.

Example :
Entry at lower risk probability with 1 contract followed by higher probability with 2contracts. From 100 trades, you only had 40 trades profit from the first setup. 60 trades small losses. And from 40 trades you only had 28 trades that follow through the second setup. rest of them is a break even since the Stop Loss from first entry must sufficient enough to break even. The calculation:
100 trades, 28 winning, 12 draw, 60 loss
The Reward : 140-0-60
Total : 80
Separate Setup:
1. 50 trades, 20 winning, 30 losses
Reward : 60 - 30
Total : 302. 50 trades, 35 winning, 15 losses
Reward : 35 - 15
Total : 20
Grand Total : 50

Same trades amount, more than 50% profit. Even if you widen the stop loss from the combine setup so failed 2nd setup are risk 1 instead of 0, you still have the total 68 or 36% higher profit.

"Its not about being right or wrong, rather, its about how much money you make when you're right
and how much you don't lose when you're wrong." ...

George Soros

Or in different way to say with same meaning.

" It's not how much winning or losing you have, it's about how much money you make or lose in the end "

Next topic about "Accepting Stop Loss As Part Of Business", the most important lessons in my trading career.

Here's What I talking About

Cut your losses early and let your profit run :) today's profit: $1300++
Last contract is a slipped finger but it's okay.

Day Trader Alert !!!

The Volatility is changing and It's our time :)
Here what I will do:

1. Playing the breakout setup
2. Putting tight stop loss
3. Change Reward Ratio to 3-1 even 4-1 even 8-1 for Crude Oil
4. Prepare to being stopped out more than ever before
5. Prepare to make massive profit :)

Here's night result with around 3-1 Risk Reward Ratio

CL update !!!

I think the Crude Oil is overshoot again. Though it's on a downtrend still overshoot is not a good.

So, today I bought CL at $79,56. Stopped out multiple times and managed to get out at $80.24 and $80.74.

Error at my blog

My New Posting didn't appear. It looked like some errors...too much postings perhaps???

BIGGEST WINNING DAY SO FAR !!!

I know for some people the amount is just a scratch. But for me, it's big. Most Contribution came from CL while got wild chopped out from EUR. As usual, JPY acting sweet again today. GBP, well just some itchy finger coming.

But tuday's result considered to be luck. I have no entry signal from CL.

Trading Rate : C-

Futures Trade Result

I wonder if anyone trade at retail forex broker. Because Future is the real market. Nowadays the volume is liquid, never had slippage and rarely not getting filled.(GBP aka. 6B is the only one who act like a**hole)

Of course Futures need more capital than retail forex but I like the movement.
And also the spread is very tight, like there's no spread at all.

I think Yen and Euro Futures is the best day trading instrument I ever had. Trending or Faking almost based on Price Action. Fluid movement, rarely chopped and overlapping candle especially outside US market. The only thing disadavantages is the ridiculous margin requirement. $3750 per contract???
I even get out when I lost $75.

Unlike TF and S&P, a horrible for me. It's like hunting your stop loss. Very hard to trade. You need a wide stop loss or get ready to stopped out three times before going your way.

If anyone who make profit from retail forex broker please share your story. I am not a profitable future trader yet but I am on the way :)

More About Technical Setup

Here's about what important about Trading Setup. I think that the more credible setup is the simple one but with solid rules. I mean the rules about the trade must be very detailed. Like:
1. where is the stop loss ?
2. what will you do if got stopped out? Re-entry or wait for another signal ?
3. what will you do if the price stall at the certain amount of time?
4. what is the Risk-Reward Ratio?
5. do you plan moving the stop loss?
6. when will you review the trading setup?
7. what will you do if you didn't get filled?
8. how many maximum stopped out you can bare?
9. how many times you get out too soon?
10. how many times you get out too late?
11. where is the hard stop loss?
12. do you need re-adjust the stop loss after re-entry?


So much question for a single setup. Here's what I do in example:



A. I will enter at the high of breakout candle and adjust my Stop Loss after reaching Risk Reward Ratio 1:1, and got stopped out par.
B. Re-entry at the same spot and Stop Loss triggered
C. Entry at the low of Breakout Candle and adjust the Stop Loss. Profit at 2:1 Ratio.
D. Re-entry below the red line and booked another profit

Total : 1 par, 1 loss, 2 profit. Loss : 1, Profit : 4

You'll see even the simplest setup ( I only trade breakout setup ) can be more detail in execution. The what-if scenario is very important. The more scenario you had, the more chance you may survive this market.
It seems like too methodical but it's also very important for discretion trader to create rules because we're not in the same emotional state every day.

Hope this help :)

Another Yen Story

I've got used to this 6J symbol. Straight forwarded with little noise. Out of my discipline though but at still in Tight Stop Loss Policy.

Yesterdays Trading Rate :
GBP : Bad
EUR : Moderate
JPY : Moderate
CL : Good
ZS : Bad

Results : C+

CL prediction fulfilled

So Much for $90 Crude Oil

Here's my prediction at April

Lesson Learned After 3 Years Trading

It's funny how my brain getting so exhausted from trading. Learnt new things not just every day, but almost every second. And I will summarize things I learnt to survive from this sophisticated game.

1. Number one important things from trading is : Learn the right way Taking Losses, technically and mentally. It's very important things to do. You may have the best indicator and trading setup, but when it come to taking losses and you failed, then sooner or later your trading journey become history, mostly sooner.

2. Edge. Edge is everything about your advantage at trading. Edge is not just about best indicator or entry/exit setup. It's also about bunch of rule you made for trading. Confidence also play important role of your edge. Accept that your edge is no 100% perfect, hell there's no 100% perfect in trading world. But in the long run, you may had profitable trading.

3. Hard work. Even with hard work, you still won't survive in this market. A smart hard work is necessary. What is smart hard work :
a. Learn Basic Price Action and Find your own Pattern Trading
b. Backtesting it and gaining confidence
c. Review the pattern every day and enhance it to more synchronize with the market
d. Find new idea every day.
e. Make a journal about the trade, technically and emotionally

4. No Bias. As a day trader, Bias is the most dangerous enemy. You maybe right about the direction but still losing money. You have opinion and thousand others must have diferrent opinion. It's like Sports Betting game.
You maybe the smartest people in the world but when everybody is dumbed and trade against you, then you still lose.

5. Discipline
Discipline about everything. Follow the rule, executing the trade that match criteria (No Bias), Setting profit target without much modification, and taking losses religiously.

I hope this article is useful, and have a good trade.

YEN PART II

Not so discipline this time, manually exit 3 ticks above target.

CL UPDATE..NEXT MOVE

CL has been overshot to $87.00 and it violated the old channel, also created a new channel (yellow line)

My estimation is while CL may hold at $82.50 or go down further breaching the green channel. Actually I gave up playing CL direction due to limited fund but maybe it will be useful to other traders.

It's a little something what I learnt from trading is : We should have "IF" scenario. Then the CL's next stop is "IF"...

Enough for the day

With discipline (once not and it costs me) I manage to book modest profit. Close for today's trade.

EUR : First, I played by the book. With Trend when breakout emerge. And Failed. I realized the probability of retrace breakout is very high. So I play fake out still with discipline and reduce my losses.

JPY : Played by the book. The only Currency today that behave straight, quite.

GBP : This monster was worse than EUR, faking out all the time. But with cheaper per tick my entry is more aggresive.

QM : At first I'd like to play the CL but I realized I can't stand the big Stop Loss. So QM is the choice. Play bad at first ( purely my mistakes ) then I entered again (quite outta my rules) but still in discipline frame and around my setup and booked the modest profit.

This is the first day I booked profit since horrible consequtive losses. Decided to quit early, building my confidence level. I hope today may become the stepping stone to a better trade.

Trading level : 13 trades, 9 good, 3 bad, 1 accident
Percentage : 69%
Grade : C+

Sucess Story : Yen

I had my discipline today. 2:1 Risk-Reward Ratio, exit exactly at temporary peak :)

Good Article About Discipline

Definitely valuable article

LOST ON ELECTRONIC SESSION

Today I made mistakes again.
1. Don't follow profit taking rule
2. Don't enter every valid setup

Things to improve:
1. Fix my Stop Loss Rule into more tighten but still good enough
2. Fix My Re-entry Setup

After 3 years trading and thousands of hour at the screen I'm still losing (Not Wipe out, yet)

Fighting The Bias

In 3 years of my trading career, I trade with bias. So after market open usually I had perception where the market would go. I was right most of the time but wrong timing most of the time. I realized as a daytrader I must have no bias.
Last bias I had I was bullish on oil and I was right. The only problem I was earlier 2 days. After a mental breakdown I cannot stand the bias no more.

In May I only entered what my signal tells me. I don't care what the market is doing. I just stick to the plan and so be it.

I am not saying having the bias is bad, but not for me. What I mean about bias is when you collect sort of information especially from news and making decision based on that. Following signals from your chart is not a bias. I was bullish on oil and so confidence the price will breach $90. But what happened next I was stopped hundredth times and being tilt when the market soared to the sky.

Maybe some good trader having a bias and success with it, like Jim Roger or George Soros. Every fundamental trader of course has a bias. But how you can compete with them when they had the best informants in the world?

Right now I had a good indicator purely on price action. I learned from one of the good trader and buy his special program (less than half the price). Sadly the program was over. You may see his blog in the bloglist (A****nP). I don't have affiliation on him but I know he is a good role model of day trader. Well every trader that survived 10 years in the market considered to be good. I am not saying the indicator is a holy grail. I just say that with a good discipline I may getting profit purely based on the indicator.

For new traders I recommended to learn Price Action as it's the core of trading. I made the analogy that learning Price Action is like learning how to forecast the weather. It's not 100% right but indeed right most of the time. With a good discipline and no bias, I think you may survive even in the first time you start your career.

I wish I had mentor who intensively check the weekly progress my paper trading and give advice how to improve. But I'd like to become one someday after I settle with my trading. I just want to help new traders out there so the don't have bad experience like me. Of course right now all I could do is share my thought. Nobody want to learn from loser anyway :( But I learned my mistakes and all I have to do is don't repeat it again.