Short Update Oct 17 2018

CAD currency according to sentiment is going strong. Some oil deficit news can strengthen the currency. The pair is the previous strong economic data currency NZD. Next step is to identify the pivot location which is already touch R61 and not yet hit the weekly pivot. The trade decision is to short NZDCAD the target is weekly pivot.

Quick Update

Busy with old trading method which is I am not proud of. Now after the party is over I am back to the drawing board.

I have been neglected the harmonic pattern for a while because I think it is more suitable with long term and diversified instrument like stocks. My next project will be converting local stock market into harmonic pattern analyzer which is challenging for me.

Meanwhile for forex market I am looking for sentiment analysis. I think to be in touch with market sentiment is very important. Combining it with Pivot Trading will become a quite prospective method.

Keep ditching and looking for new method and it is almost 6 months on and off demo account and surprisingly all the demo is profitable, whatever method I use. Now the one I am looking for is the most logical way of trading which is market sentiment.

I subscribe the news feed to keep updated with market condition and so far the analysis is very good. Italian crisis, Trade War, Brexit, everything is very important. For example last news about Brexit which is near deadline and there is no sign of a deal. Market already rally last week in the hope of the end of Brexit solution and then come possibility of extended time of the deal, also there is a threat of cabinet walk out if no deal happened. This is not good and I should short Sterling. Next step is to find strong currency which is happened to Yen. Trade War and US stock market tank is a good sign of safe haven currency. Then we should short the GBPJPY.

Before that I short EURAUD with the Italy Crisis and AUD already very oversold and also have the Pivot Point Gap. Should use EURJPY but anything works is fine.

Final word, I will keep honing the skills reading market sentiment and I will update with the progress later.

Harmonic Pattern Re-Update System

The search for most suitable system sometimes is very complex and time consuming. I still have the mentality faith to avoid trading breakdown is to trade multiple pairs. Sadly the Harmonic Pattern become less and less important. The only reason it is still using is to avoid the over trade.

I know experience with conventional indicator to mapping price movement:
1. Harmonic Pattern
2. Moving Average
3. Pivot Point
4. Multi Time Frame Stochastic
5. Longer Time Frame TDI
6. Multi Time Frame RSI and ADX
7. ADR
8. London open Breakout
9. Fibonacci
10. Heikin Ashi
11. Trend reversal EA that I used for filtering the pattern

These are the steps to analyze the trades:
1. Run the Harmonic Scanner during London Market open
2. Check incoming economic event
3. Filter the best pattern with EA trend reversal
4. Wait for the signal to emerge from crossover
5. Enter the trade when it happened
6. Insert SL and TP based on Moving Average and Pivot Point
7. Watch the trade for a potential to averaging up
8. Wait the price to hit the target or just leave it

Other ideas is trade the No Pattern pairs for Follow The Trend Strategy. The trade is based on waiting the price to pullback then enter. Without Harmonic Pattern emerge maybe the resume trend has bigger chance.

Next trading idea is to compare correlated pairs to measure the strength and weakness with stochastic. This is important to follow the trend strategy.

So far the system has good result. I manage to return the losses from last trading session. The London Open Trading is a very great idea that I want to focus more on this.

What is Missing? Winning Streak and Losing Streak Illusion

Why the losing streak happened severely after the winning streak happen? Simple answer is : Because there is a winning streak before.

Let me explain what happened in my experience.

My winning streak occurred when Harmonic Pattern give signal for reversal mostly at one single pairs against other. Let's say AUDJPY, GBPAUD, AUDUSD, and AUDCAD.
After all filtering and everyhting, I trade 3 pairs against AUD because the system said so.
What happened next that all the trades are profitable. Everything is great and everybody happy.

Then few days later, another similar thing happened. This time CAD against other pairs. With the confidence after recent wins? I trade with the same setup, same technique. And what happened next is predictable. All pairs against CAD is busted. The previous winner was wiped out by current losers.

This is why winning streak and losing streak is illusion.

I cannot avoid the losing scenario if I took the winning scenario before. It is impossible to cherry pick which trade is good or not. If you enjoy the winning, you must suffer from the next losing. It is no other way around.

However there is one way to avoid this.

Don't take the winning streak at the first place...
And you will not get the losing streak next time.

At my previous posts before, I talked about how important to keep our trader's mind state stable and calm. This winning and losing streak for sure is not helping. So from what I learned the winning streak should not happen at the first place. I should take only one pair with the best probability and therefore there is only single winning. Then at second trade I also only trade one pair and then there is only one loser. This probably will give the same result with the old strategy. But once again think about the state of mind after experience it. Personally I won't feel comfortable after five winning in a row followed by five losing in a row. It may affect my judgement and calm trading. Too fear for the next setup or revenge trading. Neither will have good outcome.

In conclusion, Harmonic Pattern is still a good tools for me. But next time I will use it more carefully and hopefully I can trade comfortably again.  

Missing Something Important

Today I am not synchronized with the market. All pattern stopped out and it wasn't a good thing. Harmonic can be bad at trending days. All pivots has been violated and no retrace whatsoever. It is obvious that follow the trend and wait for pullback has better winning ratio than blatantly trading the Harmonic Pattern.

I need to find a solution to analyze currency strength. Today is the day that all trades gone wrong. Every pivot point is a losing trade and that is very frustrating. I think one essential thing that very important is how to use the Moving Average. The further price distance with Moving Average, more likely price will reverse and the closer price to Moving Average more likely price will resume the trend.

Next idea is to use different strategy that I have been observed for quite some time. The pullback trading which is the opposite of Harmonic Trading.

Most important thing is how to detect trending market early. One idea comes from currency strength and analyzing MA strength from all pairs.

Weakness of Harmonic Pattern is when it gives signal to short the strongest pair. Worse it give multiple pairs trigger. The powerful pair will wipe out all other currency without retrace.

Good thing is I am not yet in full trading mode. Experience this situation early is very important for a better trade.

Treat Indicator Creatively

Strange how most of the time I entered the trade and it immediately become profitable. I used TDI-RT indicator that usually triggered by crossover. But it is very much too simple. Trading is not that simple. I used TDI as exhaustion indicator and looked for other divergences. 

From time to time we treat indicator like a holy grail. Use it blatantly without thinking. If it do this then we buy. If it crossover we sell, and so on. There is no such thing. I give you example with TDI above. Crossover at the top of the band, is good indication for a sell. But what happen next, price is continue to go up which is normal at the trending market. Lazy traders will think the indicator is a failure but actually we need to see it with different way. So many times if TDI crosses at the extreme area, price will give a push a little bit more before reversal. Like what happen above. So next time if we see setup like this, we can wait for last push before entering. And then the second crossover is working. We also need to check other indicator for confirmation like RSI, ADR and ADX.

Most of the time spend from trading is not the trade itself. It is to observe the price structure and watch like an eagle at critical zone. Trading is a waiting and patience game. In two weeks, I almost hit 10 percent profit which is over target. I only trade with 0.1 lot and the result is incredible. The P/L curve is up smooth. There is some manageable losses. Some trades reverse back after being stopped out. It is all normal. More than 2 months training and the trades are more precise and higher win ratio. Everything is good so far. Never ending learning in trading to achieve a greater full life.

Preemptive Reaction, Ready for The Worst..

I am not a psychologist or psychiatric. But probably this post may help your trading result.

Trading like other thing in life, we must prepare for the worst. In any cases, we must have our self conscious mind always ON. Trader's weakness is boredom. No Action when market is in sleep mode. Our habit to have activity while working is not applicable in Swing Trading. The most consuming time for Swing Trading is not analyzing, scanning, reading news, finding pattern, new trading ideas, or other trading related stuff. The most time spending is waiting.... be patient...one of the hardest challenge for Trader.

While waiting the trading signal, we must keep our subconscious mind ready. Before the trade happened we must ready for the worst. What will happen if after waiting for hours even days and the trade is a losing trade? What will you do? That must be answered before you take the trades. Sometimes trader after a waiting game their mind will be weakened. When the trade goes the opposite way, we are not prepared, then our emotion will take over the action. This is most traders will experienced. Not preparing for the worst.

5% Goal Achieved

Unrealistic target is easier than consistent profit with Demo Account. Some trade is not stick with the plan but mostly with very little draw down.

Very quiet week till now. It is not that hard to trade with logic and rational. Demo account with discipline trade and losing is better than Crazy profit but reckless trade.

So many trading idea that I actually surprise after how many years sidelining technical analysis. All idea is new, fresh and have potential to succeed.

No Pattern from Friday

I think the urge to trade every day is a bad habit. With discretion system, we sometimes are tempted to trade. The good thing of Harmonic Pattern is we are forced not to trade if there are no pattern emerged, like what happened in the last 2 days.

 Maybe there are better trading system out there that you can trade every day and probably will give a better result than the current system. But the problem is can you handle the system? Not every day is a good time to trade. Like sailing in a storm and big waves, sometimes the best answer is to wait until the weather is fine.

Once again, it is not how to find the best system out there but how to find the best system that suits us in a long term consistently. A time like this is a good time to find better ideas around the trading system.

Diversification is The Key

Today I made couple mistakes, Trades too soon without pivot confirmation. But even with bad trades because of diversification I can end up with slight profit. Without the mistakes I should made more profit though.

I believe maintaining mental health is very important for trading Forex. But if we keep losing trade every day, what will happen? There are few things that will happen:

1. We may miss great setup that can cover losses because losing can snap confidence.
2. We stop trading to tweak the system, While it is good, too many tweaking also can make us miss opportunity. What happen if the change is worse? More mental breakdown incoming. Over analyze also not good for brain health.
3. Rage trading, This is the most dangerous one. We add lots to recoup the losses and if this happen, sooner or later we will bust the account.

And more outcome will happen and mostly is not good for the trading job. So what we do is we have to keep the winner day in day out. We trade every pairs that trigger the signal. If you have 60% winning ratio system then every 10 pairs traded, 6 will become the winner. If we trade at least 5 pairs a day, then surely almost every day will become profitable. Although even Goldman Sachs have losing days, so expect there will be losing day. But if we can start strong, few losses won't affect our trading health.

Forex is unique. It is different with other instruments. If we trade index or stocks, most of the time market will have one direction only. But Forex is interconnected with each other. If we trade stocks or index, if the trigger is to buy while market is on a red day, that will be contradict with each other. A very strong bearish day for Stocks Market will actually drive some pairs up. If war happened, then JPY will go strong. Ii is called pairs for a reason. If we buy stocks then we hope the market index is green because high chance our stocks will in sync. But Forex is we can shot any signal we want and some of them should be profitable.   

Repeated Pattern Over and Over

I am in the phase that more winning than losing even sometimes I was not confidence with the trade. The trade I took is like profiting all the time, it looks like miracle.

Never in my trading life have this feeling. Trades that easier to become profitable than losing. It is like the price path is already self-fulfilling. Even most of my doubt trade mostly become profitable. Confluence is working. The more confluence the higher the success chance. I used to think technical is just random bullshit to make more people drawn to get slaughtered. Well, the truth forex is so big that price doesn't care what you did. There is no people out there marking retail traders. Stop Loss hunt is just the way Big Bank to get better price.

The strategy I applied looked complex at first but actually it does make sense.

Harmonic Pattern is the first trigger. It means there is Zone filled with Fibonacci Confluence.

Weekly Pivot is added to more confluence at the harmonic zone.

RSI and ADX measure the power of sentiment. Strong ADX meaning there is more fuel to drive market extension. RSI is to estimate if market already exhaust. Divergence ADX and Overdrive RSI is a high success chance to trade.

ADR is used as filter and estimates mileage of the daily price running.

Currency Strength also another view to trade or not. Strongest and Weakest Currency of the day is not good for counter-trend. Easy to identify the Power of Pairs.

I think the more understanding you are with market, the more success we will get. Forex is just one big Ferris Wheel fueled by Greed and Fear.

Another Super Setup ADX Divergence and RSI

H4 Pattern emerge. Yen is still the weakest today. Then Weakening ADX at Rising Price. Wait for RSI overbought then BOOM!! Price Reverse.

Patience pays off. Long term JPY currency weakness is the only defect with this setup. Harmonic Pattern works most of the time. Problem is we have to wait for another confirmation or else, the setup usually get stopped out all the time.

Lesson and Analysis:
Better wait from the overweak/overstrong pairs to develop more confirmation to enter the market. The strategy still intact. Patience when no pattern emerged like today. Wait for better entry and let the market do its work.

Things to do:
Currency Strength as a filter. Wait for better entry for extreme pairs, like ADX divergence and RSI. Lower lot for less probability trade to avoid from miss the train.

Conclusion:
Harmonic Pattern is a very powerful tools to trade, but it is very complex and needed to trade with other things. The key is manage lot number. Enter small lot for worse price and bigger lot for best price. The worse price may become profitable and if not it only hurt a little to equity.

  

Do Not Fight The Super Strong Trend

I already doubt to trade GBPJPY at the first place. The volatility and directional power in this pairs is very dangerous. I take my chance at red rectangle setup. It is way beyond the R100 and candle looks stall. The downside is ADX is keep rising near the super strong threshold and the RSI not yet enter the overbought zone.

On another note the harmonic pattern is not really in a Right Ratio. But I saw many times the defected pattern still turned out to become profitable.

Next setup is at R138 line and also a sweet spot AB=CD pattern shown by the white line. Price retrace a bit from here then after US CPI news it continued the direction.

Lesson learnt: Don't fight the Strong ADX and A Defected Pattern should not be traded at the first place.

The positive side is if I closed all trade right now I am still in a small profit or losses. This is the power of Pattern and DIversification. Quite forgiving for mistakes and I also now treat my demo account even more careful than my real account now. I have a major perspective shift and mindset of what trading is. Sometimes demo account is more important than real account. It can act as a benchmark for my psychology condition. If I trade real and demo accounts at the same time, the difference between both account will tell if I am mentally prepared for trading.

Super Reversal Setup with ADX and RSI

First Trigger : Harmonic Pattern
ADX < 40 : OK
RSI < 70 : WAIT!!

Second Trigger : R38 Pivot Point
ADX Divergence : OK
RSI > 70 : TRADE!!

The logic behind the entry :

After Harmonic Pattern emerged, the RSI is not strong enough indicates market is not overbought yet. Although ADX is not over 40 meaning trend is not strong to go upward. There is not enough momentum to drive the market down yet. Other thing is the price already near R38 which can become a magnet. Trade at R38 spot is good enough as long as ADX is not rising above 40. The better setup is if ADX getting weaker. If ADX is rising we need to wait until RSI reach overbought area.

What happened next is ADX getting weaker while price going up. This indicate the bullish is getting weak. Then price hit the R38 and RSI hit the overbought zone. What happened is we get FOUR CONFIRMATIONS to SHORT!
1. Harmonic Pattern
2. Pivot Point
3. Overbought RSI
4. ADX Divergence

Conclusion:
Lagging indicator like ADX and RSI or MACD or Stochastic can be useful as confirmation to measure the market driving power. But to enter a trade, I need a leading indicator like Fibo and Pivot Point. There is an amazing great feeling to enter the market at best price or when market started to reverse. This is not a counter-trend trading. It is similar to wait price to pullback. Enter the market late is very painful, especially watching the market reverse and leave us in a bad entry.

Although with my current setup trade already profitable most of the time, I need a better filter to categorized trade signals. The trade above considered as strong setup with four good confirmations. Not every day we can find Weaker ADX with Over RSI at the same spot. But when it happened, you already know it will be a good trade.

Harmonic Pattern alone is not enough to enter a trade. The Pattern indicates that price is ready to change direction. But sometimes there is not enough momentum yet to turn the market around. Market is very efficient and to make price move with extreme curve is not healthy, Just like cars if we keep drifting and accelerate like a racer is wasting resources. We need to wait until the wind is getting weaker to set sail to the back. The ADX and RSI is the main tools to feel the weather.

Just Believe in Pattern

Confluence Example

Pairs: AUDJPY
Pattern : Bearish Max Butterfly
Pivot : Weekly R100
Fibonacci : 61.8
Candle Reversal : Evening Star
RSI : Overbought (Not very reliable)

Trade Signal : Sell
Target 1 : R78
Target 2 : R61

The trade is Technical vs Sentiment. It looks like trading fighting the trend. Harmonic Patterns usually are an uncomfortable trade. Rarely happened sentiment and technical in sync with each other.

After trading the pattern for a while, the winning ratio is less than 50%. Aspire trader usually avoid this strategy. They have to endure many losses in a row which will happen very often. What will happen next is trader will change their strategy over and over. The longer time frame the more valid the pattern, in my opinion. Patience is the key. Price will move wherever they want to move. But with patience and discipline, overtime the gain will come.

Trading is a game of probability. Market sentiment also very important. We must have basic fundamental understanding of each Pairs. Combining the technical and sentiment is the art. I think trading is different kind of intelligence. Brain, experience, logic, risk appetite, emotion, all combined.
Don't aim for 100% profit in one week. Be reasonable. Build the equity slowly. If you want to get rich faster, use other people money. Don't over trade. Don't use trading for adrenaline rush. It should be boring. Performance must based on good trade management. Not how much profit to make. Do it over and over and over and we can get the freedom we dream of.


   

Pattern Trader Confluence and Score System

Harmonic Pattern is not just a trading signal for me. It is also to limit the trading too. No Pattern No Trade.

I believe to become a consistent trader we need a systematic trading as good as possible. So many trading course out there just give us technique or strategy separately. If market do this then it is a buy, and vice versa. There is robot solution using EA but I think swing trader no need for that. A good systematic trading for me is a step by step analysis with score sheet to decide the trade. It is also should provide people without trading knowledge to trade accordingly. Even trading job already free from 9 to 5 job, it is still a labor work. It will be best if we can outsource the job to others with even have never trading before. In fact it is better to give the job to theirs who never trade as it give no bias with market condition right now. The job for the boss is to keep close with market sentiment by updating news all the time. You don't want to sell NZD when Central Bank just announced rate rising even if the signal screaming loudly to sell. This is what bosses do. They are not doing a labor work. They create ideas and strategy to keep the business run.

The methods should give consist confluence confirmation in a score sheet. For example Pivot Point, ADR, RSI, Candle Reversal and so on. The confluence should be objective. Support Resistance is subjective and need experience. The methods should give same score with different trader albeit same trades. The Trader (or worker) should work mechanically and the performance of their job IS NOT BASED on how much they PROFIT, but how GOOD THEY FOLLOW THE RULES. Loser trader will have better bonus if they follow rules more intact than their colleague who profiting. Luck will run out but Consistency will still survive over time.

The System Trading should be have at least 1 profit in 5 trades in a row. The biggest weakness for me and other trading too is to keep changing the rules and strategy. It is my bad habit for me. As long I consistent to hit Profit Target at least 1 out of 5 I will not change. With the positive expectancy, profit will cover the losses over time. So far even with low 20% winning ratio I haven't achieved it. But it still surprised me that last week I still book profit with 7 losses in a row in last trades. For me too many losses in a row will degrade the trading morale.

Next week I will tweak some rules that I think will have better result. Thanks for reading and have a good weekend and trade.

 

Why Swing Trade the Harmonic Pattern Make Sense Part 2

Harmonic Pattern is a not every day signals for higher time frame. I am not using lower time frame because of bad results and I give up day trading anyway.

Harmonic Pattern in a trending or volatile day always give so many counter trend signals especially in lower TF. If you trade it blindly, high chance you will lose more than profit as you trade against the market sentiment.

Harmonic Pattern rarely give a comfortable trades. It feels like we buy when price going down and vice versa. And if it goes wrong, you got stopped out very quickly.

So with all advantages, then why Harmonic Pattern is a good choice for trading? One simple answer is because it forced you to be disciplined and methodical. In another word because it change My Trading!!

With Harmonic Pattern, no overtrading. No Pattern No Trade. Simple

With Harmonic when market not moving, very few signals and most of it not valid. Another no overtrading.

With Harmonic no need to trade every day. No Pattern No Trade.

With big RR of profit and losses, you can sustain many losses even with 30% winning ratio you still make money.

Confluence with other pattern like Channel and Pivot Points to filter pattern. We can create methodical trading system that even beginners can trade.

Harmonic works usually 2 or 3 days after big events or big moves. So no urge to chase the market. Keep calm and be patient. Another good ease of mind.

Combined with fundamental analysis we can create a powerful technique to trade when the big banks accumulating positions. The best feeling when we can enter early of the trade.

Swing Trading means waiting for days for the trade to reach TP. We can manage the accounts with lots adjusting. Big SL means small lots. I believe swing trading will avoid the stop hunter and algos since the target is too far away.

Harmonic is combination of fibonacci confluence. Adding with another confluence like sentiment, pivot, and trend will boost the success rate to another level.

In conclusion, Harmonic is not a stand alone indicator. It is the essential but cannot be used alone. So far it works for me. Big pips target, no stress trading with small lots, and focus not how much money we make but more at trading rules and percentage.

Next time I will update more and more awesome setup like I did when shorting EJ on Monday and long Gold yesterday. It is all based on so many confluence in one trade that me myself don't have other choice but to trade the setups.


  

Why Swing Trade the Harmonic Pattern Make Sense Part 1

I have been focusing with Harmonic Pattern for a while now with good result. You can google Harmonic Pattern to know more about it. This is not another education trading post like millions similar posts out there.

The last 11 years I have been trading the market with ups and downs. From 2011 up until now I only exploit broker weakness to make money. It is not the real trader did but it works so no complaint. But weakness can be fixed. I have been out of market for a while because fewer and fewer brokers can be cheated. So in the last couple months I dig trading forums to find the best trading style that really match with my personality.

First exploration I looked for sentiment trading. My trading based is the news and economic events. Analyzing the anticipating economic calendar, key person speech, forecast, Trump, etc. And it's really work. I think that's how big banks do. Problem is it doesn't have systematic trading method that I need. Where is the TP and SL? What price I enter? Everything are discretionary trade and sometimes impulse trade. I know it doesn't suits my trading style. Yes, it is very profitable if you can enter early and then ride the sentiment. But doing it manually is very exhausting and labor worked. Right now I am developing an auto trade with keyword at headline news. Still in very early phase but I think it may work.

Next stop was Pivotal Trading. Another method that really really great. Quite complex but very profitable. And I will use it for confirmation with my current trading style. Pivot trading alone can be very profitable but it have weakness. Actually no weakness in pivot trading. The weakness is with the retail trader. It is very popular threads at forex forum and more and more retail trader use it. It is free and the results is incredible. It's like a Holy Grail of trading and all good things may come to an end.

I believe if so many traders doing the same thing, sooner or later it will become the prey of algo trading and big boy. I know it is just my opinion. Retail traders always become the lowest food chain in market. If we gather at same place all the time, the predator will notice then eat us alive. It is in human nature that no technique is save for a long term. The profit also can be diminished since everybody take profit at the same spot. So while it is still good I don't think it will last for a long time. It will work again when weak traders leave this method.

Last thing is Harmonic Pattern. It is a whole new perspective of trading. I have a very different perspective of Harmonic Pattern. Others maybe thing it is just another technical analysis that using fibonacci and waves to enter the trade. It is not.

Let me share my insight of this technique....

( to be continued... )

     

Mid week 28th June 2018

Trade War US vs China may impact to other territory such as Bond purchasing. China said they will lower their purchasing plan and it mean less demand to USD.

One Fed voter also said there is high chance only one more hike rate on 2018.

With this informations USD sentiment looked weak and the best potential pairs is GBPUSD or USDJPY.

Sentiment : BUY GBPUSD SELL USDJPY

Syncing with market sentiment

8 years trading currency, I just discover how important to keep intact with global news economy. Everybody said price is really matter. No need to analyze news and fundamental analysis. Everything already reflected at price. Boy I have never been so wrong.

I am not saying technical is not important. In fact it is now more needed than ever. Sentiment drive market, technical is telling us when it is time to reverse.

Trading can be illustrated with driving. Technical trading is like driving with map. It give you direction from point A to B. While news is like you keep hearing the radio and using road sign.

With map only you never know what happened at road ahead. There maybe broken bridge, accident, falling tree, close road, etc. With radio and road sign only you may not know the fastest route to destination, where is your position now, and if getting lost, it is hard to return to the right track.

Combined with this two you will have the best navigation system. If there is accident ahead you can take alternative road and reach destination faster than taking usual road.

Problem with using only technical analysis is when it is profitable and everybody using the same technique, market maker and big money will easily stop hunting our position. With fundamental trading, other big institutional will support the position as they usually dont care about retail traders.

Technical alone is not bad. There are sucessful traders out there using technical only. But for me it is very frustrating not knowing why certain price jump with no reason at all.

Driving is no way as difficult as trading. There is no money risk involved. But if we can keep syncing with market even if we lose money, we know why. Not just price.

June 25th Week Analysis

EUR big bounce and other "risks" pairs like AUD and CAD may be  short lived since Trump will execute next tariff import to EUR automobile.

Trade on focus is EURJPY and CADJPY. Expect a rebound from CADJPY and short
EURJPY.

If no major event next week market expect to move in range except EURJPY.

Mid Week Analysis

ECB give possibilities of holding the rate at mid 2019 which is another pressure to EUR along with Holland downgrade revised forecast. Bad news for EUR but not very big impact.

Trade War execution and continuation to another 200 billion more tariff by Trump will hurt global economic and mostly AUD which is down heavily in last 3 days. RBA meeting policy have no clear answer about rate hiking but with this situation very unlikely they want to hike the rate.

Oil is clearly pummeled by Trade War in the last few months. CAD as oil-based currency also suffer from the downtrend and there maybe some move after OPEC meeting this week.

GBP also keep going down mostly anticipating the BOE statement which is also not very promising due to Brexit problem.

Safe haven JPY shines against all other currency. If economic turn gloom and uncertain, look for this currency as the savior. But with BOJ policy still in status quo and deflation threat, the currency should be keep strong except against USD

NZD upcoming GDP report with lower forecast will reflect how AUD economic doing. if result is better than expected then there should be some bounce with AUD.

Summary:

Pairs in focus:

EURGBP
EUR is still in worse shape than GBP. short EURGBP

AUDCAD
CAD may get a surprise at OPEC meeting against AUD that still very week. short AUDCAD

CHFJPY
Both are safe have currency and should be bounce later. Though CHF is dragged by EUR weakness but oversold CHF. long CHFJPY





   

Economic Event May 18 - 22

Tariff War between US and China will impact currency sentiment.

AUD
This week RBA Meeting Policy may discuss about tariff war as AUD and China sent move hand to hand. Last week AUD drop could be sign of market pricing already but I think there will be more south move before RBA meeting date anticipating cut rate or QE plan.

Trading plan :
Short AUDJPY
Yen may strengthen with the uncertain tariff war

EUR
Last week EUR hit hard after Draghi speaks of continuing QE and downgrade GDP forecast. EUR could be a continuation of downward but comparing to AUD, EUR was more market price in and more Draghi speak next week.

Trading plan :
No clue yet, but EURJPY should be a good choice

NZD
I have no clue with this currency but I think will move synergy with AUD though not as violent.

Trading plan :
No clue yet

GBP
News filled with Brexit event and slightly bad exonomic news last week. The cable also hit by ECB news. If Brexit plan work smooth should pump up the currency as less dependency with EUR zone.

Trading plan:
Wait for EURGBP breakout at chart more incline to break downward

JPY
BOJ last statement no major policy change meaning JPY is a good bet against other weak pair. Also USDJPY with the tariff war frenzy may attract trader with this safe haven.

Trading plan:
More incline to buy JPY at pivot key.

CAD
Oil currency with upcoming FOMC Meeting may pump up this looney after beating down last week. Tariff war also weigh down this currency but price in last week can drive up the market

Trading plan:
Slightly buy sentiment

CHF
Didnt hear big policy incoming

XAU
Should go down more with strong USD

USD
Probably strengthen more

Summary :
Next week if no major surprise AUD and EUR are the hot stuff. Keep updating the news and sync with market sentiment while entering trade with technical confluence and avoid buying weak currency plus discipline money management will be the key to survive in this business.


   

Exploit the Advantage of Big Leverage Margin

After months of no posts, I would like to share the experimental result I have done recently. The experiment and result is based on my own trading result and I am sure this is not the first time I did the research.

I find it simple to profit almost 100% per day if you have the guts to high leverage trading. I am doing day trades as usual. The difference is now I let my profit run and cut my losses small. Very small that almost all the trades are losses or break even. The trade system running normally but no profit taking activated. No direction either. It can buy then sell, or sell then sell etc. There is no restriction of which direction to take. It trades a lot and 70% of the trades is close break even or small losses. After 2 opened positions running in profit zone for some minutes, I double the trades. The new trade may trade different direction or the same doesn't matter. The rules still implied. If it is negative or break even then close. Then it took some losses again. Then I double the position again until all trades need 80% of available margin.

After quite a while all open positions is in one direction of trading. I can add 2 more lots to make it full margin and that's what I did. Now all the trades are profitable and make 90% of the initial equity.
And I did it in just 2 hours of trading in 3 days. All 3 days has reached the objective.

Here is the requirement to trade like this:

1. High leverage margin / low margin requirement per trade.
2. Wide range directional trading instrument like Asia market index.
3. Sufficient trading capital.
4. Big guts

And that is what my trading imagination. The truth is.....I blow up 3 accounts in three consecutive days. Demo accounts though but still it is interesting findings. I only need less than 30 lots to blow up 10k accounts by doing the exact opposite that I write above.

This is how trading played the human mind. It will beat you over and over until you crazy.
Let profit run, price will return and give you nothing. 
Next time you let losses run and it end up blow up the account.
and the cycle return...



" Boxing is unnatural act...that everything in boxing is backwards.
   Sometimes...best way to deliver a punch is step back. "

                                                                              Frankie
                                                                       from Million Dollar Baby


* change boxing to trading and punch to trade