Saturday, January 29, 2011

Jaded and Paralyzed

My trading system maybe the worst system in the world. The winning ratio are very low. Stop Losses too tight and stopped out dozens of time. In the chopped market it will eat you alive. Even in Crude Oil, very common having 5-6 losses in a row. Hell, having those losses will crippled you especially Crude Oil may chopped until end of days, no chance to breakeven.

In currency is the same. I have to use my logic if the market will expand or not. Like Friday, I may chopped to death until the move come. Or you wait and wait for 4-5 hours, eating the trading-spirit and then sometimes par you alive and price went on.

However, in a wide range market, this system is a Holy Grail. If soybean (ZS) keep ranging 20 pts a day, I will make profit every day. That's right. But who knows what will happened? Just hoping the grain market keep expand like this and I will set for good. But I know this won't last forever. The only consistent market IMO is currency, futures or forex, the same. Rarely it moved under 100 pips intraday. And if it does, then next days usually expanding with huge range. However, because of the 24 hours market, and playing on market accross the world, it had a dead session. Usually from 07.00 - 10.00 EST if no impact news between.

So, if ZS kept doing like this, I'm sure making consistent profit on this. Also Currency, I had doubt in my setup. The chopped is unavoidable and unknowable. Even on London session may give a chopped, and worse, wide volatile chopped. While Crude Oil, there's too risky with my setup, since the chopped may continue until closing bell. Volume doesn't work that good.

I added the NQ in my portofolio. The moved quite fast, the swing quite wide. And most important, the SL is low. I am not targeting $500 or $1000 profit. Just $100 - $150 per contract will do me fine. Friday was my first day trading it, chopped around until real setup came out and my internet jammed. I might chopped out 4 times and it cost me less than $200. Compared it to Crude Oil.

I planned to swing options with my new MTPredictor setup. It's good and if the best setup come out, the result may devastating. However using currencies, you may not trade 2-3 days cause of no signal at all. But with stocks, there's hundreds of choice. And there must be some great setup appeared. Still working with the import data for stocks.

That's it for now, MOnday hope for hte best to come. If market moved like 2008 again, I'll be a happy and rich man :)

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